Damaging Wind in Montana, July 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
316 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...
As another weak disturbance move across mainly zonal flow aloft
this evening, there are still chances of showers and thunderstorms
to impact our CWA tonight and into early tomorrow. Thunderstorms
across Roosevelt and Richland counties along the shortwave
disturbance earlier today were fairly efficient rainmakers, and
these showers and storms tonight should be no different, as
monsoonal moisture is still being pulled northward. Models still
vary widely regarding QPF, so am hesitant to give concrete
amounts. The majority of the precipitation is expected to fall
over our south and eastern areas, but storms may still develop
over the higher terrain in the west.

Behind this disturbance, northwest flow aloft returns as a high
pressure ridge moves back over the region. Hot temperatures and
low humidities will return to northeast Montana, and surface winds
will increase from the NW. Currently, no fire weather products
have been issued, but if winds do become stronger than
anticipated, this will become a concern.

Hickford

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Period will be borderline hot as the upper ridge pushes into the
area through the weekend. High temperatures reach the upper 90s in
most places Sunday that may need attention. Fire weather concerns
continue to look marginal as winds remain 10 mph or less while
lowest Minimum Humidities are in the teens. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Upper ridge remains in place over the western states through the
weekend and into next week. The broad flat shape of the ridge
should keep temperatures hot but not excessive, generally in the
low to mid 90s for maxima.

More uncertainty surrounds the chance for thunderstorms. Flatness
of the ridge will likely keep monsoonal moisture from reaching as
far north as Montana which will limit convective potential even as
weak shortwaves move through the ridge. Models also not in good
agreement with timing the shortwaves, increasing the uncertainty.

Overall expect hot and dry conditions to continue into next week.
Ebert

&&

.AVIATION...

Flight Conditions: VFR.

Synopsis: Low pressure will move through east-central Montana and
into North Dakota Friday. Scattered showers are expected to
linger overnight especially in the Glendive area as a result.
Sunshine will return Friday.

Winds: East/Southeast winds will diminish overnight.

TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak disturbance riding along the SW flow aloft will continue to
move across our area tonight and into early tomorrow morning,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Currently expect
most of these to remain over our south and east, but the burn
sites may still see some activity. Fortunately, these should have
at least a little rain with them. West- northwesterly flow
returns tomorrow, and the concern here will be lower humidities
and potentially gusty winds, along with the hot temperatures,
throughout our western zones.

Surface winds from the SE around 10 to 15 kts will shift around
from the NW with some gusts potentially reaching 20 to 25 kts by
Friday afternoon. Last reports indicate that fire crews are making
excellent progress on containment.

Low humidities and warm temperatures may be a concern tomorrow,
but currently do not expect winds to be strong enough to warrant
fire weather headline products.

Hickford

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow