Scattered thunderstorms developing near the Blue Ridge during the afternoon briefly organized into a small cluster across Caldwell County, which produced brief damaging winds and a small area of excessive rainfall in the Gamewell and Hudson area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developing near the Blue Ridge during the afternoon briefly organized into a small cluster across Caldwell County, which produced brief damaging winds and a small area of excessive rainfall in the Gamewell and Hudson area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 1:45 PM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region from the west Friday
through Friday night. Cooler and drier air will arrive across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through the weekend and
linger through the early part of next week. More typical summertime
conditions will return about the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated/scattered convection will continue to develop across the
high terrain into late afternoon, with a general increasing trend
expected as a series of convective vort maxes approaches the
southern Appalachians. Multiple outflow boundaries associated with
ongoing activity should continue to propagate E/SE through the
foothills and into the western/upper Piedmont through early evening.
However, penetration of convection into the Piedmont may be limited
by a general W->E weakening of sbCAPE, as is depicted in the latest
mesoanalysis. Thus, pops range from 50-60 percent near the Blue
Ridge, tapering to 20 percent across the lower SC and southern NC
Piedmont this afternoon/evening. A few pulse severe storms (with
microbursts as the main threat) appear to be a good bet, with the
foothills and far northern/western Piedmont being the most likely
areas to see a brief severe storm. Convection should gradually
diminish through the evening.
There is a fairly strong consensus among high resolution/
convection-allowing guidance and operational short term models that
an area of pre-frontal widespread showers/embedded storms will be
approaching the southern Appalachians by sunrise Friday. It is this
probability that is providing the main heartburn regarding the
PoP/convective trends/ chances for severe weather on Friday. While
the NAM and the GFS more or less dissipate this area of precip
across the southern Appalachians Friday morning, they also sweep the
remnant cold pool into our forecast area such that they depict
virtually no sbCAPE across much of the forecast area by 18Z. While
this is plausible, it's by no means a given, and it does create a
considerable amount of uncertainty in tomorrow's forecast. This is a
bit disconcerting considering the anomalously strong mid/upper level
flow, with attendant deep layer forcing and low level & deep layer
shear of 25-35 kts, as one would typically expect a very active
severe weather day with such ingredients in late July. The
combination of upper support, along with lee side/pre-frontal
trough and perhaps outflow boundary(s) associated with the morning
convection should support scattered to numerous showers and storms
across the area by afternoon. The threat for severe storms in our
area remains very much a point of contention, and SPC has
acknowledged this by shifting the Slight Risk primarily to our east,
where confidence is higher in significant afternoon destabilization,
although a marginal risk encompasses the entire forecast area. While
this seems very reasonable in light of the inherent uncertainty, the
potential for a few significant severe storms still cannot be ruled
out. Tonight's min temps will be a bit above climo, while tomorrow's
highs should be a couple of degrees (if not more) below climo under
expected widespread mid/high clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday: The best upper-level forcing rounding the
slowly deepening eastern trough will likely cross our piedmont
Friday evening before swinging rapidly east to the coast overnight.
An attendant sharp cold front will also cross the region through the
nighttime hours. PoPs will thus remain fairly high during the
evening hours before drier air starts arriving from the northwest
overnight post-fropa. However, the best severe convective threat
should have passed east of the area by evening - unless any strong
redevelopment occurs along the immediate frontal zone. Showers may
linger along the northern mountains in moist low level upslope flow
well into Saturday morning.
A closed, upper-level low pressure system will then migrate from the
central Appalachians to the Virginia Tidewater region Saturday
through Saturday night. The surface cold front will depart southeast
of the region and drier air will work in. The main exception is that
a trailing vorticity lobe rounding the upper low will swing down
across the western Carolinas Saturday night, reinforcing moisture in
the 850 to 700 mb layer. This will lead to some return cloudiness,
but probably no associated showers.
Deep layer northerly flow will continue Sunday through Sunday night
on the back side of the deep eastern coastal trough. Periods of mid
level moisture could permit slightly higher cloud cover at times,
but with no attendant showers expected. Anticipate maximum
temperatures about 1 to 2 categories below climo by Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday: Reinforcing shortwave energy arriving
from the upper Midwest will keep a mean trough axis positioned over
the eastern U.S. Monday through Wednesday. Mainly dry surface high
pressure will sprawl over to the north of the region through this
same period. The airmass will slowly modify, with isolated
convective coverage returning to the southeast mountains late Monday
and then more typical diurnal mountain ridge top coverage Tuesday
through Thursday. Some modest height recovery is expected on
Thursday with max temperatures finally returning to near seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Coverage and intensity of convection should
continue to increase across the high terrain through mid-afternoon,
with outflow boundaries and mean winds carrying the convection E/SE
into the foothills during mid/late afternoon. Uncertainty persists
regarding the degree of coverage outside the mtns, so opted to limit
the convective mention to VCTS at KHKY and the Upstate SC terminals
beginning at 19-20Z. Uncertainty increases a bit more into the
Piedmont, but a VCSH/marginal tempo for TSRA appears warranted at
KCLT by 21Z. Tempos for TSRA may have to be added on relatively
short notice at the other terminals. Otherwise, convection should
begin to trend down by mid-evening. Can't rule out development of
restrictions toward daybreak Friday, primarily in the form of low
clouds. However, confidence is low, and a clear consensus of
statistical guidance indicates that low clouds and/or fog should
remain more or less confined to the mtn valleys. Thunderstorm
chances get started earlier than usual on Friday, as an area of
showers and storms may approach the southern Appalachians during the
morning, with associated outflow boundaries possibly acting as a
focus for new convection by early afternoon.
Outlook: Scattered to numerous convective cells are expected to
impact the area Friday afternoon. Drier air will filter in from the
north behind a passing cold front this weekend. Chances for morning
fog and stratus will also be possible, Saturday morning, mainly in
the mountain valleys. A typical summer-time pattern is expected to
return by the middle of next week.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 85% High 97% High 87% High 94%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 89% High 94%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDLHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 527 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280930- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 527 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The atmosphere will become unstable this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will develop and some may become severe, with the greatest threat across the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont of North Carolina. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. ..Friday...Severe weather possible. A strong cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon through Friday night. Organized severe thunderstorms may form and produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially across piedmont locations. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today and Friday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
152 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
NCZ505>508-271815-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
152 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...
At 151 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Marion, or 5 miles south of Old Fort, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Old Fort, Lake James, Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill, Thermal
City, Pleasant Gardens, Glenwood, Fero and Union Mills.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3552 8184 3544 8219 3552 8223 3553 8217
3555 8222 3556 8225 3561 8227 3576 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 246DEG 14KT 3556 8215
CDGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
NCZ053-271900-
Buncombe NC-
225 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
BUNCOMBE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 225 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 7 miles north of Downtown Asheville, or near
Weaverville, moving southeast at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, North Asheville, Black Mountain,
Woodfin, Swannanoa, Weaverville, Fairview In Buncombe County, UNC
Asheville and B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3571 8228 3568 8229 3567 8228 3565 8229
3562 8227 3559 8229 3556 8225 3549 8231
3550 8233 3548 8237 3546 8237 3565 8266
3578 8256 3580 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 302DEG 20KT 3570 8253
CDGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
NCZ501>504-271915-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-
243 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND NORTH CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...
At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles southeast of Newland, or 7 miles north of
Table Rock, moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Cajah's Mountain, Drexel, Cedar Rock, Lake
Rhodhiss, Edgemont, Collettsville and Patterson.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3596 8145 3574 8159 3589 8184 3597 8181
3603 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 290DEG 21KT 3594 8178
CDGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
NCZ503-504-506-271915-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
246 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...
At 246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles northeast of Marion, or near Lake James,
moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Lake James, Nebo and
Oak Hill.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3583 8169 3564 8173 3570 8196 3576 8195
3577 8194 3578 8195 3581 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 274DEG 11KT 3576 8188
CDGSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 256 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 NCZ053-065-271930- Buncombe NC-Henderson NC- 256 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT... At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with intense lightning 6 miles southwest of Downtown Asheville, or over Bent Creek, moving east at 15 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Downtown Asheville, Arden, Fletcher, Biltmore Forest, Bent Creek, B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum, Asheville Airport, B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville, Skyland and Enka. In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary appliances before the storm approaches. && LAT...LON 3546 8269 3558 8266 3556 8243 3537 8247 TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 277DEG 11KT 3552 8262 CDG
The Greer radar (KGSP), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:15 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Ham radio operator reported several large tree limbs blown down on Calico Rd at Highway 64. Public reported (via Social Media) another large limb down on power lines on Evans St in Lenoir.
FD reported flash flooding developed along a tributary of Little Gunpowder Creek after up to 3 inches of rain fell in the Hudson area in a short period of time. Logan Rd was impassable due to flood water, and a woman had to be rescued when her home became surrounded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 715471, 716634.