Flash Flood in Georgia, July 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
817 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...

A mid level low will remain nearly stationary over SE GA Today,
with a weak surface low under it. With diurnal heating,
convective coverage will increase later this morning into the
afternoon. With the low stationary, slow storm movement is
expected, therefore an increased chance for heavy rainfall and
potential flooding.

Temperatures over SE GA and far Northern Florida will be slightly
below normal Today due to the precipitation and cloud coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low stratus and visibilities will rise this morning. Convection
will increase in coverage through the day with gusty storms and
heavy rainfall expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  74  94  76 /  60  20  30  10
SSI  86  78  90  79 /  70  40  30  10
JAX  89  74  94  77 /  80  50  40  10
SGJ  89  78  92  76 /  60  30  20  10
GNV  91  73  92  75 /  60  20  20  10
OCF  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Struble

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
550 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281000-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
550 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Patchy fog will be possible across portions of inland northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia early this morning.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this
morning and early afternoon over coastal southeast Georgia and
across much of northeast Florida. Activity will increase in
coverage and will move slowly southward this afternoon. Slow
moving downpours over saturated ground conditions will result in a
risk of localized and urban flooding this afternoon and evening,
particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor. Frequent lightning
strikes are possible within stronger activity. A few strong wind
gusts will be possible late this afternoon over north central
Florida and coastal northeast Florida, generally from St.
Augustine southward. Thunderstorms may linger through early
evening all along the Interstate 95 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout
southeast Georgia and along the Interstate 10 corridor on Friday
afternoon, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible over
southeast Georgia during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes will be the
primary hazards.

A cold front will approach southeast Georgia from the north on
Saturday, with numerous thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible,
with activity moving into northeast Florida during the evening and
overnight hours. This front will stall over northeast Florida by
late Sunday and through early next week, with numerous
thunderstorms expected each day for all of north central Florida
and most of northeast Florida. Flooding is expected to become a
primary hazard early next week as several rounds of strong
thunderstorms potentially impact north central and northeast
Florida. The frontal boundary will begin to move slowly northward
towards midweek, with numerous thunderstorms expected to expand
into coastal southeast Georgia by Wednesday, with scattered
thunderstorms forecast for inland southeast Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches, in addition to significant street flooding or flood waters
entering homes and/or businesses this afternoon.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Nelson