Tornadoes and Hail in Minnesota, March 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Busy short term with many concerns untasted.

Initially...severe potential across mainly the central cwa into the
early evening still looks good. Activity firing along the boundary
over southwest Minnesota...should lift rapidly east northeast around
50 mph through early evening. Tornado watch 63 issued until 04z.

Activity will move east into early evening. There is indication of
some wraparound precipitation as the upper level circulation moves
across late tonight into early Tuesday. We held onto some lower end
pops for this. Strong winds remain an issue...developing this
evening/spreading east across the cwa with the fropa. We retained
the high wind watch for Tuesday...but trimmed a few counties along
the MN/WI border and did drop in a wind advisory for Tuesday into
west central Wisconsin. The strongest wind guts potential should
ride across western into central MN...with a 50kt wind gust
possible...especially west. Currently...all wind headlines expire
around 03z Wed.

Strong winds and much drier air moves in Tuesday with dewpoints
dropping into the teens. Actual air temepratures will likely remain
in the 40s. Fire weather concerns increase into the afternoon with
lowest relative humidity values of 25 to 30 forecast over parts of
southwest MN. Added elevated fire weather conditions in the forecast
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

By Tuesday night, the deep low pressure system will be positioned
over far northern Ontario and will likely have deepened below
970mb at the surface. So, the winds will still be screaming
Tuesday evening under cold air advection. That will be the main
issue of focus as with the low being so far north of us, we will
likely remain dry Tuesday through Wednesday. Even Tuesday night,
we still expect wind gusts of 30-45 MPH possible mainly in the
evening.

The remainder of the week looks much more seasonable in terms of
temperature. In fact, Thursday through the weekend may see highs
fall short of average this time of year.  Overall, back to reality
in terms of temperatures for mid-March by this weekend.

The next shot of precipitation still looks possible on Thursday with
a band of lift along the baroclinic zone across southern MN
through Iowa and Nebraska. Some of the new guidance available to
day is downplaying the potential, however so kept slight chance
pops in for this period and will wait and see how things looks as
new guidance becomes available.

On Saturday, a decent shortwave begins to dig as it progresses
from Montana toward IA/NE. Given the impressive thermal gradient
already in place, this wave looks to have plenty to work with to
produce several inches of snowfall. At this time, far southwestern
MN looks to take a glancing blow from this with most of the precip
expected from South Dakota through Iowa toward Illinois, so that
has not changed from the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

IFR conditions continue across much of central MN and western WI
with MVFR conditions slowly working east across southern MN.
Should see cigs lift early to the southwest and work into east
central MN 21z-2z period. Clouds may linger into west central WI
until during the evening. Still expect thunderstorms to develop
along a cold front late this afternoon across western MN, then
race eastward during the early evening. Strengthening southerly
winds this afternoon will become west for tonight and Tuesday,
with gusts 45-50 kts Tuesday.

KMSP...Expecting mvfr cigs to become vfr around 21z. Timing of
the storms could shift an hour or two, but expecting them from
00-02Z as of this TAF issuance. Strong southerly winds becoming
southwest this evening and west with fropa.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR and very windy. Winds W 30G50kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds WNW 20G35kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ041>044-048>052-057>063-066>070-076>078.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     MNZ041>044-047>052-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ045-053.

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ047-054>056-064-065-
     073>075-082>085-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
071530-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1249 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and possibly a brief
tornado are possible later this afternoon and evening. Westerly
winds will gust near 50 mph as a cold front passes through later
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong westerly winds will last through Tuesday night with gusts
of 45 to 55 MPH possible. The strongest gusts will be Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.