Strong thunderstorms crossed northern Lake Huron.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms crossed northern Lake Huron.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 8:52 AM EST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 952 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 ...Severe thunderstorms looking increasingly likely this afternoon and evening... Per the northern Michigan usual, one challenging convective forecast shaping up this afternoon into this evening. Decaying MCS diving southeast across western Wisconsin, with attendant outflow and weak warm front dynamics spurring additional showers and thunderstorms over western and central Upper Michigan. In theory, and per pattern recognition, would expect these initial storms to continue to slowly decay, leaving behind an outflow/differential heating boundary across the northern Lakes this afternoon and evening. This, combined with an approaching (and organizing) cold front should provide the impetus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening, with convective induced cold pools providing the means for propagation. Severe threat with these storms is definitely there, with mean layer cape values expected to spike north of 1.5 Joules/Kg and deep layer effective shear up and over 30 knots. Storm scale structure will likely be further enhanced through cold pool interactions and possible storm mergers. Main threat with any storms later today will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail up to and over an inch in diameter. A large section of northern lower Michigan has been upgraded to Enhanced Wording in latest SPC Day One Convective Outlook, with wording within this product highlighting these very concerns. Definitely could be a busy afternoon and evening. We shall see. && .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 ...Increasing chances of showers and storms today with severe storms possible this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...Marginal to slight risk of severe storms...mainly this evening. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure continues to slowly push east away from Michigan early this morning as low pressure develops upstream over the Northern Plains. Most of Michigan remains precip- free at this hour as better focus and instability for convective development remains well west of our CWA in the vcnty of the surface low and associated cold front. The exception is a small area of convection that has developed over the Keweenaw Peninsula which has pushed eastward into SE Lake Superior riding along the leading edge of the instability and 850 mb theta E gradients. Expect this convection will diminish as it pushes further east toward Eastern Lake Superior and Eastern Upper Michigan away from better instability and moisture. Better organized convection will redevelop this morning upstream of our CWA along the northern edge of the instability axis and 850mb theta E ridge just ahead of the surface low. Convection will expand as these features lean into our CWA during the afternoon and evening hours. MUCAPES will increase to near 3500 J/kg during this time with bulk shear values increasing to 35-40 kts. Primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds...with virtually all of our CWA within the slight risk of severe storms per latest SPC Day 1 Outlook. Convection will diminish from NW to SE late tonight in the wake of the cold front. Expect another very warm day across the Northwoods thanks to ongoing WAA ahead of the cold front despite increasing clouds and increasing chances of precip. Afternoon highs will warm well into the 80s across most of our CWA...with low temps tonight cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 ...Cooler with fairly quiet weather... High pressure builds in later Friday and holds through Saturday evening. A cold front will then approach late Saturday night. The main short term forecast concerns revolve around pops Saturday night. Friday...The surface cold front will continue to progress off to our southeast. Residual but diminishing low level moisture could spark a shower or storm but overall instability is rather low and decreasing with time. Slight to low chance pops across southeast counties look fine. Cooler with lowering humidity. Highs ranging from the lower 70s north to near 80 southeast. Friday night through Saturday...Weak high pressure expected to lead to precipitation free conditions with low humidity. Lows ranging from the middle 40s to middle 50s. Highs mainly in the middle 70s. Saturday night...High pressure slides off to the south allowing for a cold front to approach from the north. This will lead to chances for showers overnight. Lows in the middle 50s to near 60. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 A pair of short wave dropping down through the flow will bring chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for both Sunday and Monday. Not expecting a washout by any means. Slowly increasing heights for Wednesday and Thursday should promote partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures. Highs in the lower and middle 70s Sunday and Monday and the middle 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon and tonight along and ahead of an approaching cold. A few stronger to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall conditions will remain VFR thru the TAF period despite increasing clouds and lowering cigs...although conditions may briefly drop to MVFR and even IFR within heavier showers and storms. Winds will be from the SW AOB 10 kts thru the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria across our nearshore areas thru Friday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase today and tonight along and ahead of a weak cool front... with the potential for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Winds and waves may be higher within any storms that develop. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...MSB NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1058 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-071200- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa- Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim- Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford- Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco- Gladwin-Arenac- 1058 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan... eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Rest of today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, especially across much of northern lower Michigan. Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify as they move southeast across the region between 2 pm and 10 pm. The primary threat from these storms will be damaging winds and large hail, although an isolated tornado is also possible. Any storms that do form will also be capable of producing brief periods of very heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Additional thunderstorms are possible on Friday, as well as Sunday into early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Emergency Managers, spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening. && For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. msb
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
101 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
MIZ008-061800-
Chippewa-
101 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY...
At 101 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Newberry, moving east at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sault Ste. Marie, Paradise, Point Iroquois, Bay Mills, Dafter,
Hulbert, Brimley State Park, Bayview Campground, Strongs, Lower
Tahquamenon Falls State Park, Brimley, Eckerman, Raco, Three Lakes,
Sugar Island, Mackinaw Lake and Platt Lake.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4649 8459 4646 8453 4645 8447 4649 8443
4651 8438 4649 8427 4652 8423 4634 8413
4630 8524 4663 8524 4665 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 269DEG 33KT 4649 8536
LOCKERThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:33 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 717754, 717755.