A line of showers and thunderstorms developed out ahead of a weak cool front moving through the Ohio Valley and western to central Kentucky. Heavy rain persisted over Barbourville during the early to mid evening hours, resulting in flash flooding in town.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms developed out ahead of a weak cool front moving through the Ohio Valley and western to central Kentucky. Heavy rain persisted over Barbourville during the early to mid evening hours, resulting in flash flooding in town.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 11, 6:56 PM EST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 756 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 756 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 WSR-88D radar continues to show scattered to widespread showers and some thunderstorms across the region. There are two different bands that have developed the one band in the Bluegrass and portions of the Lake Cumberland and another band in southeast KY nearer the TN/VA borders. Right now the better cells are residing in the southern band nearer the better instability, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon and modest dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. There has also been sufficient shear to allow for more persistent updrafts to develop. The band to the north is in an area that is now fairly worked over, and would not suspect more than isolated storms to be the story at this point. All of these bands will slowly progress SE along with a cold front. Model wise the CAMs are trying to latch on to the southern band, but struggled with timing. Did beef POPs up where rain showers are falling. Also updated with latest obs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 19z sfc analysis shows low pressure centered to the north of the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front trailing south through the mid part of the Ohio Valley. This boundary is pushing a band of scattered to numerous showers slowly toward the area. Still some sunshine exists out ahead of this band of rain and this has allowed temperatures to peak near 80 degrees over our far southeast with readings in the 70s to the west and north. Closest to the rain in the Bluegrass region, temperatures are in the upper 60s. Dewpoints, meanwhile are up significantly from yesterday, but still rather dry in the east - running in the mid 40s compared to the low and mid 50s further west. In these locations, the dryness allowed relative humidity levels to bottom in the mid to upper 20 percent range this afternoon. Luckily, the winds were strongest - pushing 20 mph from the southwest - mostly just in the west where the RH was highest. The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a dampening trough passing through the Ohio Valley tonight with flat flow to follow into Wednesday. While the GFS and ECMWF are quite similar with this pattern the CMC is showing more ridging over the deep south and into Kentucky for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. At this point, the consensus is that most of the ridging will be found over the High Plains while a batch of energy slides Southeast through the Upper Midwest. Given the model agreement early on, and some differences later, will favor a blended solution - though negating the CMC specifics. Sensible weather will feature the dying cold front passing through the area tonight including a chance for thunder with its showers on the leading edge. In general, rainfall amounts will be rather light with less than a quarter of an inch of QPF expected for the majority of the area. High pressure then builds in for a cooler, but still on the warm side of normal, day as skies will be mostly sunny with only light winds. A decent ridge to valley split looks likely for Wednesday night under clear skies and on the back side of the retreating high pressure area to the northeast. The lack of soaking rains and more dry air on the way will keep fire weather concerns in the forefront for eastern Kentucky through the rest of the week, though winds look to be relatively light. Started with the ShortBlend and CONSShort for the grids with some minor to moderate adjustments to lows Wednesday night to account for terrain induced ridge and valley differences. As for PoPs, refined them a tad this evening and overnight for a more uniform passage of the precipitation potential with the front - then basically zeroed them out after 12z Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place, with varying amplitudes, through the long term period as shortwaves pass by to our north. Overall, models are in decent agreement and the model blend was accepted with little modification. High pressure will provide warm and dry weather for Thursday. In fact, humidity will likely drop once again to near critical fire weather thresholds, but winds will be light. A weak shortwave will round the top of the upper ridge as we end the work week and head into the weekend bringing a small potential for a shower or storm Friday into Saturday. A stronger wave will then pass through the Great Lakes, beating down the ridge and pushing a cold front into the region by Sunday. This will bring us a better chance of showers and storms Sunday into Sunday night before the front sinks to our south and drier conditions prevail for Monday. Models then hint at the front returning back north with more shower potential by Tuesday. With the upper ridge in place and only a weak frontal passage anticipated Sunday/Sunday night, temperatures will remain above average throughout the period with highs generally in the 70s to near 80. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 Most locations have remained VFR despite showers and thunderstorms passing over several sites. Even some parts of the area have seen small hail with some of the stronger storms. The added low level moisture and the soundings would support the potential for MVFR to perhaps IFR CIGs tonight. Did at least add MVFR cigs for all the sites, but less confident on getting the IFR CIGS at this time. These lower CIGs are expected to mix out Wednesday morning and we will see mid/high level clouds in the wake. Most all the sites are seeing NW flow at TAF time, and expecting winds to remain light for most but veering to the north through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122230- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Friday through Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GREIF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
506 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
KYZ044-052-104-112130-
Rowan-Elliott-Fleming-
506 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING...CENTRAL
ROWAN AND NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES...
At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Morehead,
moving east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Morehead, Cranston, Wagner Store, Munson, Brandy, Elliottville,
Bluestone, Haldeman, Triplett, Clearfield, Vale, Christy, Rodburn,
Hilda, Farley, Hays Crossing, Gates, Crix, Waltz and Lakeview
Heights.
LAT...LON 3830 8333 3821 8330 3821 8329 3819 8327
3820 8323 3824 8322 3827 8318 3823 8312
3823 8309 3820 8306 3820 8304 3811 8349
3827 8357 3835 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 249DEG 27KT 3822 8344
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
538 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
KYZ052-104-112215-
Rowan-Elliott-
538 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ROWAN AND ELLIOTT
COUNTIES...
At 538 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stark, or near
Sandy Hook, moving east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sandy Hook, Fannin Valley, Farley, Lytten, Newfoundland, Bruin and
Stark.
LAT...LON 3823 8312 3823 8309 3818 8305 3820 8304
3821 8301 3817 8298 3818 8292 3812 8289
3807 8322 3819 8327 3819 8324 3824 8322
3827 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 249DEG 26KT 3816 8316
DJSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service JACKSON KY 624 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 KYZ079-112300- Pulaski- 624 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY... At 624 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stab, or 9 miles northwest of Somerset, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Science Hill, Dabney, Stab, Bobtown, Hogue, Pointer and Pulaski. LAT...LON 3730 8458 3713 8449 3711 8480 3717 8482 TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 251DEG 19KT 3715 8476 HAL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
630 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
KYZ083-112300-
Wayne-
630 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY...
At 629 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mill Springs,
or near Monticello, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Kidder, Mill Springs, Betsey, Frazer and Steubenville.
LAT...LON 3695 8490 3700 8484 3698 8479 3696 8477
3697 8473 3698 8470 3698 8468 3689 8462
3688 8460 3689 8459 3687 8459 3687 8491
3696 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 257DEG 29KT 3693 8482
HALThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:30 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed reports of standing and flowing water up to three feet deep on numerous streets in Barbourville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 680040.