Hail in West Virginia, April 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses the area tonight. High pressure
builds in Wednesday, remaining Thursday. Warm front lifts
through Friday into Saturday. Cold front Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

Models in agreement on a prefrontal surface trough moving east
across the area this later afternoon and evening, accompanied
by an organized band of showers. Model soundings indicate enough
instability for a thunderstorm along and just ahead of the
trough, but nothing strong to severe is expected. Behind this
through follows the real cold front, weak as it is, that will
cross the area overnight. Thus at least scattered showers will
continue until passage of the front. Models now target two areas
that receive the greatest QPF. One is across southeast Ohio
early with one wave moving up along the front. The second is
across southeastern WV and southwest VA tonight with a second
wave. This second wave will then accelerate the front through by
morning. Thus on Wednesday, high pressure will build in with
dry weather quickly establishing itself and with increasing
sunshine. Thus temperatures Wednesday will only be slightly
cooler than today, but it will be dry again with northwest
winds.

As of 430 AM Tuesday...

The main feature this period will be a slow moving cold front
progged to cross through the day into Wednesday morning. Model
guidance demonstrates consistency in timing this feature, with
initial precip entering far northwestern counties around 11/10Z.
Still some questions regarding areal coverage, but kept likely PoPs
in with the highest confidence coming after 12/00Z, mainly along
and east of the Ohio River. There should also be modest
instability, with CAPE values between 500-800 J/kg, and around
40-45 kts deep layer shear, and this will allow chance thunder
as the front crosses. By the end of the period, rain will have
cleared most areas outside the mountains with perhaps a
lingering shower or two left over going into the short term.

Used a blend of hi-res and global model guidance to fine tune precip
timing and coverage with more preference on LAMP guidance for temps.
Efficient radiational cooling in the mountains have allowed temps to
drop quickly with slightly less cooling farther west. Increasing
cloud cover today will limit heating, so kept highs just shy of 80 F
in the lowlands with upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere, but still
above guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather expected into Thursday night. Relative humidity levels
drop into the mid to upper 20 percents Thursday afternoon, but winds
are not expected to be very strong. The GFS does show some showers
popping along the Appalachian ridge Thursday afternoon, but think
moisture will be too limited -- despite the elevated heat source
enhancement -- so kept POPs dry for now. Moisture does start picking
up Thursday night, with some showers and thunderstorms expected
Friday with a weak warm front slowly lifting through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 233 PM Tuesday...

Warm front from the short term continues to lift through for the
beginning of the long term. Have showers and thunderstorms,
especially across the northern half of the CWA Saturday with
southerly flow cranking up. A cold front will push through Sunday,
with likely POPs taking the form of showers and thunderstorms. Have
some POPs lingering across the east into Monday before drying out
Monday night into Tuesday. Stuck fairly close to the consensus blend
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Prefrontal surface trough moves east across the area this
afternoon afternoon and evening, followed by the cold front
tonight. Cold front exits the mountains by around 10Z
Wednesday. Band of showers and thunderstorms with the prefrontal
trough spreading eastward across the area later this afternoon
and evening, with lingering rain showers behind the surface
trough until the cold front passes tonight. Southwest winds 7 to
14 MPH ahead of the cold front, becoming west northwest 5 to 10
MPH behind the cold front tonight, and northwest 7 to 12 MPh
Wednesday.

SCT-BKN 4000-6000 feet AGL ahead of the band of convection this
afternoon, but with occasional MVFR in the showers, continuing
until the cold front passes. With passage of the cold front,
rain mostly ends, and look for general MVFR ceilings low lands;
with IFR ceilings in the mountains including BKW and EKN.
Conditions improve to VFR SCT clouds from west to east beginning
around 09Z, reaching the mountains by 17Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for timing of convection, Low to
medium for development and timing of MVFR/IFR tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage of TSRA and SHRA could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

IFR possible in mountains Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing low level
moisture and the onset of rain across portions of the area
tonight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/DTC
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/DTC
FIRE WEATHER...JMV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-121645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia,
northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
456 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHZ086-WVZ007-112130-
Gallia-Mason-
456 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL GALLIA AND NORTHERN
MASON COUNTIES...

At 456 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Rio
Grande, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Racine, New Haven, Mason, Syracuse,
Hartford City, Henderson, Cheshire, Adamsville, Lakin, Gallopolis
Ferry, Gage and Letart.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3884 8242 3898 8210 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200 3899 8198
      3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190 3893 8190
      3889 8193 3882 8187 3873 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 246DEG 31KT 3878 8234

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
521 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

KYZ102-112145-
Carter-
521 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTY...

At 521 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Vale, or 8
miles southwest of Olive Hill, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Grayson Lake State Park, Grahn,
Soldier and Globe.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 150 and
169.

LAT...LON 3841 8301 3818 8292 3817 8293 3817 8298
      3820 8301 3820 8304 3818 8305 3823 8309
      3824 8314 3827 8317 3823 8322 3819 8323
      3819 8326 3822 8329 3821 8330 3830 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 253DEG 29KT 3822 8327

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
532 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHZ076-WVZ009>011-019-112215-
Washington-Ritchie-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
532 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
PLEASANTS...NORTHERN RITCHIE...TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN WOOD
COUNTIES...

At 531 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Belmont, or 9
miles southwest of St. Marys, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, St. Marys, Middlebourne, Paden City, Sistersville, Belmont,
Newport, Matamoras, Friendly, Fly, Alma, Willow Island, Maxwell,
Schultz, Arvilla, Point Lookout, New Matamoras, Wick, Waverly and
Mountain.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 2.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 20, and near
mile marker 23.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3958 8089 3960 8085 3956 8082 3955 8079
      3954 8078 3951 8074 3948 8072 3947 8070
      3943 8066 3943 8071 3939 8074 3933 8084
      3924 8139 3943 8144 3957 8105 3957 8104
      3954 8104 3961 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 249DEG 37KT 3932 8132

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
542 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

KYZ101-103-112215-
Boyd-Greenup-
542 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN
GREENUP COUNTIES...

At 542 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Oldtown, or
near Grayson, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Cannonsburg, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Greenup, Princess,
Coalton, Greenbo Lake, Oldtown, Naples, Flatwoods, South Point,
Russell, Raceland, Worthington, Wurtland, Bellefonte, Westwood,
Hanging Rock and Hopewell.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky near mile marker 178.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3857 8282 3856 8278 3856 8273 3854 8270
      3848 8264 3847 8261 3842 8259 3840 8260
      3837 8283 3840 8291 3840 8295 3839 8296
      3851 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 251DEG 20KT 3842 8300

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
545 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

KYZ102-103-112230-
Boyd-Carter-
545 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN CARTER
COUNTIES...

At 544 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Grayson Lake
State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Grayson, Grayson Lake State Park, Cannonsburg, Catlettsburg,
Princess, Durbin, Coalton, Denton, Burnaugh, Rush, Lockwood, Grahn,
Willard, Hitchins and Mavity.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 161 and
191.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3834 8314 3840 8290 3838 8282 3842 8277
      3846 8261 3826 8257 3825 8259 3827 8264
      3826 8270 3824 8274 3824 8280 3819 8285
      3820 8288 3817 8294 3818 8299 3820 8301
      3820 8304 3818 8305 3822 8308 3824 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 258DEG 25KT 3825 8305

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

KYZ103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005>007-013-112300-
Boyd-Lawrence-Lawrence-Mason-Lincoln-Wayne-Cabell-
629 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BOYD...NORTH
CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN MASON...CABELL...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 629 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Durbin, or near
Cannonsburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Wayne, Hamlin, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Beech Fork State
Park, Cannonsburg, Hurricane, Barboursville, Kenova, Milton,
Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Ona, Culloden, Burnaugh, Durbin, Centerville,
South Point and Burlington.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 184 and 191.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 32.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3839 8274 3856 8207 3850 8205 3834 8204
      3829 8205 3827 8199 3821 8198 3820 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 257DEG 26KT 3830 8265

Kistner