Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, March 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Intense upper trough working east across the Northern Rockies with
a smaller-scale wave swinging southeast into the High Plains. Dryline
had pushed through Concordia at 20Z with dewpoints in eastern Kansas
still in the mid to upper 50s despite intense mixing. Deep west to
southwest flow behind the dryline leading to some blowing dust to
the west and northwest, but cold front was not far behind with
northwest winds into Phillipsburg at 20Z.

On the large scale, winds continue to be the main story. HRRR has
been fairly close with trends over the past few hours and has been
hitting at gusts topping 50kts in north central Kansas in the late
afternoon. Latest runs backing off of the extent and coverage of
this however, and given observations to the west, will continue with
the Advisory into the early evening.

Storm chances still looking rather good with CIN diminishing and
dryline and front coming in. Obviously lots of deep shear is in
place, with some veering for storm organization. Early storms should
still be able to be discrete at least initially, but increasing
forcing should bring a more linear mode toward evening. Enough low
level shear for a tornado risk with the early storms too, and with a
slightly slower dryline trend, the time for tornadogenesis in this
area is increasing, though mitigated by right moving supercell
motions around 45kt. The early evening will bear close watching for
severe storms, with the front's progression through the area by late
evening ending storm chances.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

By Tuesday, the mid-level trough axis will be shifting east of the
area with northwesterly flow aloft still in place across the
Northern and Central Plains.  At the surface, low pressure will
extend across the Northern Plains with high pressure tracking into
Oklahoma and Texas.  Models show a pressure gradient remaining in
place over the region through the day, resulting in breezy westerly
winds.  These strong winds combined with dry conditions will lead to
another day of extreme fire weather conditions for the entire
outlook area.  See the Fire Weather section below for further
details.  While these westerly winds will result in cooler
conditions for Tuesday, high temperatures will still be above the
seasonal normals in the upper 50s/low 60s.

Dry conditions will continue through mid-week as northwest-to-
southeast oriented zonal flow sets up over the central U.S.  With
surface high pressure advancing into the southeastern U.S., a
warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as winds shift to
the south, pushing high temperatures back into the mid 60s to low
70s.  There is a chance for some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across east
central KS as a front slides southward over the area.  Cooler
conditions are expected by Friday as expansive surface high pressure
builds from the Northern Plains southward into the Central Plains
behind the exiting front.  This cooling trend will continue into the
weekend as a mid-level trough dives into the Central Plains with
northerly winds keeping high temperatures only in the mid 40s to low
50s.  By early Saturday morning, models show two disturbances: one
across the Northern Plains in association with the mid-level trough,
and the second over Oklahoma as surface low pressure lifts
northward.  Models show these two disturbances converging over the
CWA early Saturday morning with precipitation tracking eastward out
of the area by the evening.  With early morning temperatures
Saturday morning near the freezing mark around the KS/NE border,
there is the potential for a rain/snow mix across far northern KS
before transitioning to all rain by mid/late morning.  The next
chance for precipitation may be Sunday night into Monday, however
the ECMWF keeps this system further north of the CWA while the
GFS/Canadian track it over the area.  A rain/snow mix would be
possible once again over far northern KS Monday morning as
temperatures drop to near freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Minor changes to going aviation forecast. MHK still appears to be
west of the storm initiation area, but it could be close. Other
than a few hours of potential storms around 23Z at TOP and FOE,
winds will continue to be the main concern with gusts of 45 knots
possible through 01Z. Wind gusts pick up again at the end of the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Today:  Very strong winds with falling RHs bring extreme fire
danger to mainly western and central locations through sunset.
Exact location of RH values falling below 20% is not certain, but
any trimming of the Warning would lead to a poor message at this
point.

A tight pressure gradient will remain in place over the region on
Tuesday, resulting in breezy westerly winds gusting upwards of 30-
40mph.  Model soundings show very dry conditions in place over the
entire region with dewpoints generally in the teens. Despite
slightly cooler high temperatures (in the upper 50s to low 60s),
these low dewpoints will be enough to cause RH values to plunge into
the 14 to 18 percent range during the afternoon.  The combination of
these dry conditions and gusty winds will result in extreme fire
danger conditions across the entire CWA.  As a result, the Fire
Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the entire
area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-034>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke/65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
231 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
231 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe weather...
There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms mid afternoon
through early this evening. Scattered storms are expected to
develop generally east of a line from Council Grove to Manhattan
to Seneca, with the better chances for severe storms being along
and east of an Emporia to Silver Lake to Hiawatha line. Storms
may initially be discrete before congealing into a line. All
severe hazards will be possible with any discrete storms that
develop, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and
tornadoes. Thunderstorm chances end from west to east this
evening.

Fire weather...
Extreme fire danger will continue through this afternoon over
central, north central, and portions of northeast Kansas. A Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for locations along and west of a
line from Council Grove to Holton to Hiawatha.

Strong Winds...
Winds will be strong out of the south to southwest
at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph at times. Winds
will become more westerly in north central Kansas late this
afternoon. These winds may pose a hazard to high profile vehicles
and blow around unsecured objects. A Wind Advisory is in effect
through 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire outlook area Tuesday
afternoon as extreme fire danger conditions are expected due to
dry conditions and very gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight for locations
east of a Herington to Manhattan to Seneca line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep