A very active weather pattern across the central United States led to minor flooding on the Wabash River and part of the Ohio River. While heavy rain did not occur in southern Illinois, there was enough rainfall in those basins to push several river gages above flood stage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A very active weather pattern across the central United States led to minor flooding on the Wabash River and part of the Ohio River. While heavy rain did not occur in southern Illinois, there was enough rainfall in those basins to push several river gages above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 11:20 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1120 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The main concern in the short term portion of the forecast is a storm system pivoting north northeast out of the southern Plains Thursday and through the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday night. Ahead of it, winds will become easterly and lots of elevated moisture will return to the region beginning late tonight. The overall trend in the 12Z guidance is for a slower arrival time for the elevated showers. The HRRR has been consistent in killing off any light shower activity moving northeast out or Arkansas this evening. Generally followed the 12Z GFS and ECMWF for the placement of PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night. The models are indicating a pretty sharp western edge to the heavier rains, so western and northwestern portions of the region may see a quick hit of some showers late tonight and Thursday morning, and then dry out fairly quickly. The 12Z guidance is in decent agreement in developing some meager elevated instability, so will keep a slight chance of thunder going Thursday into Thursday evening. Do not feel that enhanced rainfall rates will persist long enough at any one place to cause much in the way of flash flooding. However, given the saturated soil conditions across the region, and in particular, west Kentucky, did give serious consideration to a Flood Watch for Thursday. 6 hour FFG values over west Kentucky are well over 2 inches, so the 1.25"-1.6" currently forecast over a 12 hour period in west Kentucky should not cause major problems. The FFG may be a bit optimistic, so will give the areal flood concerns a decent write up in the HWO. The bulk of the rains should hold off until the midnight shift forecast is complete, so there is still time for a Watch or at least an SPS. Needless to say the forecast rainfall will only aggravate river flooding across the region. As this upper system lifts north and weakens, another storm system will emerge into the central Plains Thursday night and Friday. It will actually lift a warm front north through our area late Thursday night and Friday. There could be some shallow instability that could be just deep enough to support a few showers near the front on Friday, so will have 20% PoPs over at least the west/northwest half of the area through the day. Friday night will actually be dry. Yeah! For tonight, the low clouds have cleared over much of southern Illinois, but thicker high clouds will keep things more cloudy this evening than clear. The low clouds should lift back to the north quickly by midnight, and despite easterly winds, a non- diurnal temperature trend is a good bet. Much of the area will likely see lows at some point this evening, with steady or slightly warming temperatures after midnight. It will be mild through the period, with the warmest conditions expected behind the warm front on Friday. Much of the area should climb above 60 Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Main story in the long term period is the unseasonably warm temperatures and a storm system that will impact our area over the weekend. The region will reside in southwest flow aloft on Saturday, with warm, moist air being transported into the area. Weak forcing ahead of energy moving into the Southern Plains on Saturday should result in at least isolated to scattered showers through the day, although many places may end up dry for most of the day. The main piece of energy will move toward the area Saturday night through the 1st part of Monday, with precip chances increasing during this time. The peak time period for best areal coverage appears to be Sunday into Sunday night. From Saturday afternoon thru Sunday, models are hinting at enough instability for thunder potential. With sufficient MUCAPE, marginally negative showalters, and LI's from 0 to -3, went ahead and included slight chance of thunder. QPF from the weekend system is expected to be highest over western KY (roughly 1-1.50"), to around 0.50" across western and northwest counties. The system is expected to pivot out of our area sometime on Monday, although exact ending time is somewhat in question. Drier weather is then expected Monday night into the day on Tuesday as upper level ridging moves in. Discarded the 12Z ECMWF for now, as it came in wet for Monday night/Tuesday morning for the 1st time and only model showing it. Troughing over the western states will work east by midweek, bringing a cold front into the area. Currently the best forcing looks to be well north of our area, closer to the sfc low track, and models aren't in great consensus on the amount of moisture moving through our area. So for now only pops late in the period are slight chance for Tuesday night. As for temperatures, Saturday will be the warmest day with highs in the 60s areawide. Would not be surprised to see a few locations touch 70, especially if any breaks for sunshine occur. Record highs may be challenged (Paducah: 70, Evansville: 71, Cape Girardeau: 68). Temperatures will slowly migrate down heading into next week with 50s common Monday thru Wednesday, still some 10 degrees above normal. There has been good consensus with long range guidance hinting at a cooler pattern setting up later next week and possibly lasting thru the end of the month, as troughing sets up over the eastern half of the country. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Open Gulf stream/fetch readily depicted by both Satellite/Radar will lead to lowering CIGS and VSBYS tonight-tmrw, with IFR conditions at times. Rain showers will overspread the area after 09Z from south to north. We will see the showers ending Thursday late afternoon or evening at KCGI/KPAH but continuing at the other sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 316 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 316 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. PERSISTENT RAINFALL OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WEST KENTUCKY...AND ANOTHER INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS...AS WELL AS CLOGGED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Mainly bottomland fields and surrounding low-lying areas were inundated. The boat ramp and parking lot at Old Shawneetown was under water.
Minor flooding occurred along the Wabash River. Several local river roads were flooded. A few of those local river roads were closed by high water. All oil field production ceased with the exception of pumping units on substructures. Access to these was by boat only. Agricultural losses were minimal because the flooding occurred outside the main growing season. Farmers moved livestock to higher ground. Many river cabins became inaccessible. Additional low cropland downstream of Mount Carmel began to flood. Backwater from the Wabash River affected gage readings on Bon Pas Creek near Browns.
Minor flooding occurred along the Wabash River. The river overflowed onto some low ground, primarily farmland that was dormant during the winter season.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, January 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 670693, 670701, 670708.