Strong Wind in Illinois, April 9, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

The pressure gradient across the region will be tightening through
the morning, so temperatures are not likely to drop much, if any,
through daybreak. With the very mild start to the day, will definitely
be leaning to the warm side of guidance for highs throughout the
area. A few 80 degree readings are likely, but most areas will be
in the upper 70s.

Used the consensus of all short range guidance for sustained
winds and wind gusts through the day. Not much change here. The
strongest winds will be over our northwest territories where gusts
will be range 35-40 mph, which is nipping right up to Wind
Advisory criteria. We do not plan on issuing an Advisory at this
time, but observations will have to be watched closely. Will
continue to mention it in the HWO.

The 00Z guidance keeps the area dry through daybreak Monday, and
then continues to trend a bit drier through the Monday/Tuesday
event. With the upper ridge in the vicinity, there is a lot of
warm air in the 850mb-700mb layer, which may retard deep
convection for much of the day Monday, even in southern Illinois
and southeast Missouri. If we get substantial precipitation, it
will be due to thunderstorms, so will keep a mention of
thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.

The 00Z GFS is a fast outlier with the cold frontal passage
through the area. It has the front south of our region by 12Z
Tuesday and keeps the entire area dry Tuesday. Will side with the
remainder of guidance and keep chance PoPs focused over the
southeast half of the area Tuesday and into Tuesday evening.
Not as confident about thunderstorms Tuesday, but will defer to the
new Day 3 Convective Outlook, and keep a slight chance of thunder
in the southeast half to third of the area through the day.

Wind fields will be pretty stout in the north Monday afternoon
and evening, but instability will not be. Cannot rule out a stray
strong to severe storm, but will generally be looking at a
lightning and heavy rain concern.

Will be leaning toward the warm side of guidance for highs and
lows for today through Monday night. Southwest winds will be gusty
tonight into Monday, but not as strong as this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Medium to low confidence in the extended...mainly with pops.

The models are in good agreement on a dry start to the extended with
upper level ridging over the region along with a surface high.
This will create warming through sinking and compression. This
warming should persist as the surface high drifts off the east
coast bringing a warm and moist flow back into the region. Also
There will be a cold front move through late Thursday albeit
little in the way of cold air in its wake...with little to no
change in temperatures. However dew points will be in the 50s for
the most part which is enough for thunderstorms but the strength
should not be too impressive with dew points that low. Rain
chances will persist with the southerly flow at the surface and
another front approaching late in the weekend. Models are
consistent with instability through the later half of the week
with MUCAPE staying positive through the end of the week. Also
surface based during the day most anything at night should be
elevated in nature. In addition to low summer like pops...qpf
amounts are very low throughout the extended. One thing the models
have been persistent with and in good agreement is that
temperatures will be above normal through the extended with high
well into the 70s across the board.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

The forecasts are VFR. Southwest winds at 45kts around 2kft AGL over
the region early this morning have led to LLWS being inserted for
all sites until mixing leads to gustiness at the surface around
14Z. The main concern to aviation will be strong south winds
gusting over 30kts at times this afternoon. The strongest winds
are expected at KCGI. The gustiness to a lesser extent is expected
to continue through the night as well. If the gustiness subsides
LLWS will be a concern again tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
317 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

South winds will gust 30 to 40 mph at times this afternoon. The
strongest winds will be in southern Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast Monday through Tuesday. A
few storms may produce some strong wind gusts along the
Interstate 64 corridor late Monday into Monday evening. Otherwise,
lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary
concerns.

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the
area Thursday through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and
lightning will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
934 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-092115-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION,
MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI,
CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN,
JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, CAIRO, MOUND CITY,
METROPOLIS, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE,
BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE,
PADUCAH, MAYFIELD, SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, MARION, EDDYVILLE,
CADIZ, PRINCETON, MORGANFIELD, DIXON, MADISONVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE,
HENDERSON, OWENSBORO, CALHOUN, GREENVILLE, ELKTON, PERRYVILLE,
MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN,
DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON, CHARLESTON,
AND NEW MADRID
934 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

...Strong gusty south winds are expected this afternoon...

Windy conditions are expected to develop today. The strongest
winds are expected to occur over southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri, where sustained winds from 20 to 25 mph are expected for
a few hours. Wind gusts will be from 35 to 40 mph at times.

Winds will not be as strong across most of southwest Indiana and
western Kentucky, where gusts should be mainly from 30 to 35 mph
this afternoon. However, the relative humidity will be lower in
those areas, which will result in elevated fire danger. Refrain
from outdoor burning until wind speeds decrease or moisture
increases.

Conditions on area lakes and rivers will be hazardous for small
craft. Drivers of high profile vehicles may experience some
difficulty handling their vehicles, especially in wide open areas
where the wind is unobstructed.

MY