Drought in Georgia, January 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
949 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move over the Carolinas tonight and become nearly
stationary over the area on Sunday. This will allow widespread showers
to persist across the region into Tuesday. Another cold front will
move across the forecast area by late Tuesday with drier air in its
wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST...As expected, the low-levels are moistening up and
hence, the very light precip that is moving in is mainly just rain
now. I haven't seen any recent reports of frozen precip, so plan to
let the SPS go at 10 PM. Grids were updated, with only a few high
peaks in the Balsams still mentioning snow for the next hour or two,
otherwise just rain for the rest of the night. PoPs look on track
per latest radar showing increasing returns from the west. Although,
this precip is still falling into dry air to the east.

Light rain should continue to increase and spread eastward
overnight. With cloud cover and warm advection, low temperatures are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Periods of sprinkles
and light rain will continue thru the day on Sunday. Sundays highs
will be only 10 degrees above the lows due to extensive cloud cover
and areas of precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday, A wet early part of the week is in the
offing, as deep S/SW flow maintains a feed of Gulf moisture across
the Southeast, while cold air damming is expected to remain in place
across most of the forecast area through at least Monday. Moderately
strong SW flow above the surface cool layer will provide persistent
isentropic lift, as well as mechanical lift near the southern
escarpment of the Blue Ridge. This will result in extended periods
of -RA/drizzle, punctuated by a couple of rounds of more significant
precip. One such round is expected Sunday night/early Monday as a
weak baroclinic wave ripples toward the TN Valley from the Gulf
Coast states. The second is expected Mon night/early Tue, as a
strong short wave trough and attendant frontal zone lifts from the
lower Miss Valley to the southern Appalachians. Isolated TS,
primarily of the elevated variety, are possible with both of these
rounds. However, it's not out of the question that some surface-
based buoyancy could develop around the southern periphery of the
CWA early Tuesday. If this occurs, wind shear would be adequate for
a low-end severe weather threat. The frontal system will finally
sweep drier air into the forecast area on Tue, although some NW flow
showers will be possible near the TN border.

Maxes will be a little below normal within the CAD regime on Monday,
although southern areas may creep toward the 60s by the end of the
day. Otherwise, temps will be well above climo through the period,
esp Mon night and Tue as conditions warm with the erosion of the
CAD. In fact, the Piedmont may well see Tue maxes in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday: Deep moisture will have been shunted well
east of our forecast area (FA) by the start of this period. However
a secondary surge of moisture should be established in the western
North Carolina mountains Tuesday night until about dawn Wednesday.
This should result in upslope showers, with 30-35 knot northwest H85
flow. It will be initially warm, but cooling through the night will
result in a mix or change to snow. We did not plan to advertise any
accumulations yet, although if the cold air is faster to arrive,
there may be some minor accumulation.

As we reach midweek, the overall pattern change across the CONUS will
be underway with a very fast flow aloft. The main story as we reach
midweek is that we are noting a greater cyclonic flow, and a deeper
reach (toward the southeast) of the arctic air.

This has significant ramifications in the latter part of the going
forecast - see below. Initially Wednesday should be quiet, with
temperatures colder than previous guide across the board.

As we work through Thursday and Thursday night, the GFS and European
both streak moisture and some spotty light precipitation across the
region. It should be light since the Gulf of Mexico will be cut-off,
but with colder temperatures some light snow could materialize.

Temperatures on Thursday and Thursday night have trended colder, and
we will follow that trend as well.

Friday and Saturday offer greater complexity, as a chunk of arctic
air drops into the area. This effectively has resulted in a shift to
the south of the primary over-running/WAA precipitation episode
during that time frame.

Considering how drastically the models are jumping around, we have
opted to follow WPC and keep chance POPS in the forecast for Friday
into Saturday. Although at this point we have light precipitation
amounts, thermal profiles will support some light snow in a growing
number of locations.

As noted in previous discussions, this is currently a low confidence
forecast at the end of the cycle - until the models can stabilize in
with the overall pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere...The air mass in place will continue to
moisten this evening thru tonight, bringing cigs down to IFR at all
sites by daybreak Sunday. Spotty light rain will move in from the
west, and may bring vsbys down at times as well. Winds will favor a
light SW direction this evening, then become lighter and turn out of
the NE at the piedmont sites on Sunday, as a weak wedge sets up.
Periods of light rain should lock in low cigs and generally reduce
vsby during the day on Sunday.

Outlook: The next cold front will approach the region from the
west through Monday, with increased moisture streaming in on a
persistent southwesterly flow. Unsettled and moist conditions will
continue on Monday, then some drying expected on Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     Low   56%     Low   50%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   62%     Low   48%     High  89%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   75%     Med   66%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High  80%     Med   73%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     Low   51%     Low   40%     High  91%
KAND       High 100%     Low   54%     Med   71%     High  88%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...TS
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
950 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.