Colorado, 2017Avalanche in Colorado, January 10, 2017
January 10, 2017 · NWS GJT · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A heavy snowfall event resulted in an unstable snowpack and subsequent avalanche in the Vail Pass area.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $30,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A heavy snowfall event resulted in an unstable snowpack and subsequent avalanche in the Vail Pass area.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 9, 10:46 PM MST, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 9, 10:46 PM MST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1046 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017
Colder air moving in aloft in this portion of the storm as the
surface cold front is moving through Northwest Colorado and far
eastern Utah late this evening. The cold air aloft transitioning
the storm to a more convective mode and occasional strikes of
lightning are showing up...some with forcing from the front...some
with orographics. The good news if there is any with this storm is
that the colder air aloft will limit the potential of the freezing
precipitation. Snow rates in the is unstable atmosphere could be
quite intense as Naples picked up 2-3 inches as the front rolled
through earlier this evening. Currently Craig...the warm spot
today...has cooled to 30 degrees behind the front with snow.
Expect some gusty winds with the fropa as well with gusts near 50
mph being reported upstream. Still a dynamic storm and will
continue to monitor and update as necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017
Short-term guidance has not handled the forecast well at all this
afternoon. Model soundings are more or less useless in the lowest
1000 feet or so, as they eroded the inversion way too fast in all
valley locations. While most valleys eventually climbed above
freezing, Grand Junction has only now risen to 32 degrees as of 3pm
this afternoon.
The forecast for the remainder of the evening is still somewhat of
a challenge as guidance remains too cool aloft in the vicinity of
the warm nose, which has mixed down to the surface in the valleys.
It would seem as though most places are near their maximum
temperature for the day both at the surface and aloft. A diffuse
cold front in the mid-levels will slowly track from west to east
over the region tonight. Model soundings reflect this slow push of
cold air in a top-down fashion, indicating a drop in
temperatures aloft by 6pm to the north of I70. Cold air will
eventually mix down to the surface after midnight, changing rain
to snow in places such as Craig and Meeker before precipitation
ends before sunrise. To the south of I70, things become a bit more
difficult. The mid-level cold front appears to wash out over
central Colorado tonight, which would indicate a bit of a slower
drop in temperatures especially at the surface. If enough cold
air does filter down as the front passes, light rain may change
back to light snow in the Grand Valley, Rifle, and Eagle. It is
entirely possible however that the lack of a real push of cold air
near the surface will result in mostly light liquid precipitation
in Grand Junction, before drier air moves in by Tuesday mid-
morning. Southern valley locations such as Montrose and Cortez
will likely remain all liquid through the end of the event as
colder air is unlikely to make it that far south. Overall, snow
levels in the San Juan Mountains should settle around 7000 feet
overnight, with as much as 8 to 16 inches falling before snow
diminishes in intensity Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning have been adjusted significantly
in this package to reflect today's temperature trends as guidance
slowly catches up to the present situation. The biggest changes
have been to lower min temps in the north where the cold front
will have it's greatest effect, and to raise min temps in the
south. As precipitation ends on Tuesday, temperatures are
forecast to rebound above freezing in the valleys. High
temperatures have been adjusted downward in all areas per latest
guidance/anticipation of colder air in the north. All mountain
zones in Colorado will see snowfall continue during Tuesday
afternoon, albeit at a lesser intensity than Tuesday morning. Snow
levels will remain around 7000 feet through Tuesday evening before
warm-air advection begins again ahead of the next wave of low
pressure headed our way for Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017
The current satellite water vapor image is showing a storm system
centered along the coast of British Columbia along with two
plumes of tropical moisture. The 1800Z ECMWF and GFS20 have
initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and
remain in decent agreement through Thursday.
Both models slide a storm system down the California coast on
Wednesday. This storm system interacts with one of the two
previously mentioned plumes of tropical moisture directing it into
Eastern Utah and Western Colorado. This abundant moisture will
result in another round of heavy mountain snow and potentially low
elevation snowfall. The forecast models have not been doing a good
job with low elevation temperatures in particular valley and basin
locations, therefore confidence in low elevation snow is not high
at this time.
Forecast model continuity begins to deteriorate on Thursday, but
both models drive this storm system southeast along the California
coast into Mexico on Friday which will end the threat of snow
associated with this storm system for our area. At this point
anticipate a mostly dry forecast this weekend as this storm
system passes to our south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1046 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2017
the persistent winter storm will keep cigs near or below Ils
breakpoints through the night with some improvement tomorrow.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MST Tuesday for COZ003>005-009-
010-012>014-017>019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday for COZ008.
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ028.
&&
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...NLIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 9, 9:35 PM MST, 5 hours 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
935 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0846 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW GREAT DIVIDE 40.76N 107.85W
01/09/2017 M45 MPH MOFFAT CO MESONET
MESONET STATION 2 SW GREAT DIVIDE /GDRC2/.
&&
NLLocal storm report, Jan 9, 9:37 PM MST, 5 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
937 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0825 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WOLCOTT 39.70N 106.68W
01/09/2017 M47 MPH EAGLE CO MESONET
MESONET STATION WOLCOTT /CO095/.
&&
NLLocal storm report, Jan 9, 9:38 PM MST, 5 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0758 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW GLENWOOD SPRINGS 39.59N 107.40W
01/09/2017 M45 MPH GARFIELD CO MESONET
MESONET STATION STORM KING MOUNTAIN - 4 WNW
GLENWOOD SPRINGS /STOC2/.
&&
NLLocal storm report, Jan 9, 11:19 PM MST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 E WAUNITA HOT SPGS 38.50N 106.32W
01/09/2017 M84 MPH GUNNISON CO MESONET
MESONET STATION MONARCH PASS /MYP/.
&&
NLLocal storm report, Jan 9, 11:26 PM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1126 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1112 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW WOODY CREEK 39.26N 106.91W
01/09/2017 M52 MPH PITKIN CO ASOS
REPORTED AT ASPEN AIRPORT.
&&
NLLocal storm report, Jan 9, 11:28 PM MST, 3 hours 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1128 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1114 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW WOODY CREEK 39.26N 106.91W
01/09/2017 M53 MPH PITKIN CO ASOS
REPORTED AT ASPEN AIRPORT.
&&
NLAvalanche, Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys
- When
- January 10, 2:40 AM MST to 2:45 AM MST
- Where
- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys forecast zone
- Property damage
- $30,000
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
- Coordinates
- 39.481, -107.172 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
An avalanche came down onto Interstate 70 in the Narrows area, about four miles west of the Vail Pass summit. The avalanche initially came down onto the westbound lanes and then spread across the eastbound lanes, with the westbound lanes covered up to 15 feet deep. Three semi trucks were struck by the avalanche. I-70 was closed for about ten hours due to the avalanche and related cleanup activities.
- Avalanche
- A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Strong Wind in Louisiana, January 10, 20171 death · 1 injured · 1 event
- High Wind in Ohio, January 10 to 11, 2017$635,000 · 64 kt wind · 24 events
- High Wind in Pennsylvania, January 10 to 11, 2017$425,000 · 51 kt wind · 4 events
- Heavy Snow in Oregon, January 10 to 11, 2017$280,000 · 7 events
- High Wind and Strong Wind in New York, January 10 to 11, 2017$110,000 · 55 kt wind · 24 events
- High Wind in Washington, January 10 to 11, 2017$208,000 · 52 kt wind · 2 events
- High Wind and Strong Wind in Vermont, January 10 to 11, 2017$130,000 · 52 kt wind · 10 events
- High Wind and Strong Wind in New York, January 10 to 11, 2017$70,000 · 54 kt wind · 5 events
- Damaging Winds in Ohio, January 10, 2017$43,000 · 50 kt wind · 14 events
- Strong Wind in Arkansas, January 10, 2017$70,000 · 2 events
- Strong Wind in Kentucky, January 10, 2017$26,000 · 22 events
- Strong Wind in Illinois, January 10, 2017$19,000 · 19 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 706441.