The Fay Wildfire started around 11 AM PDT on 07/05/17. As of the last report on 07/21/17, the fire was at 469 acres and was 100% contained.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Fay Wildfire started around 11 AM PDT on 07/05/17. As of the last report on 07/21/17, the fire was at 469 acres and was 100% contained. 2.4 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 8:33 AM PST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
933 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The typical coastal stratus has built into the coastal valleys and
will break up over land into the afternoon. The focus of the
forecast today will be on winds and the thunderstorm potential
over the northern Cascades.
Just taking a quick glance at the potential of storms, it's
looking very unlikely over the northern Cascades. There is some
potential instability there, but we're not confident that the
upper level energy will be enough to get a storm going in our CWA.
Perhaps one storm will develop farther downstream in Portland's
area. As for winds today, we'll see stronger south west flow
across the majority of the CWA. The strongest winds will be on the
east side and over the Shasta valley, thus creating some fire
weather potential with the dry airmass.
-Smith
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z TAF CYCLE...Stratus with IFR Cigs will
continue at the coast for most of this morning with clearing to VFR
expected around noon. IFR conditions will return again tonight with
areas of LIFR Cigs and Vis. Elsewhere VFR will continue. /FB
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Wednesday, 5 July 2017...Short
period seas from fresh swell will keep the small craft advisories
for seas through around day break today. Light southerly winds will
keep the surge of low clouds and fog in the coastal waters and the 2
AM satellite showed low clouds were approaching Florence OR. Fairly
calm conditions are likely late Wednesday through Thursday. A return
to gusty northerly winds from Cape Blanco south is still on
track for Friday night. /FB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 250 AM Wednesday, 5 July 2017...The overall
pattern has not changed much from yesterday. A trough remains
anchored just offshore with SW flow across our forecast area with
ridging aloft providing hot and dry weather. Afternoon mixing was up
to 650mb (around 11000 ft AGL for west side and 7000 ft AGL east of
Cascades) level, and this will be the case again today bringing
gusty winds to the surface for most of the East side zones. The
latest model however show not only stronger winds aloft but also
larger coverage of the stronger winds. Previous shift had expanded
the coverage of the Red Flag Warning for winds and low humidity to
include the lower Klamath and Tulelake Basin, as well as other areas
in eastern Siskiyou County. This looks reasonable and we will
continue with this coverage.
For Thursday, while humidity will still hover in the 10-15 percent
range, the strongest winds are expected to be about 3 mph less
than this afternoon. One area that comes close to warning criteria
is eastern 624 from Bonanza and SpragUe River east through
Lakeview, as well as the southern half of the Shasta Valley and
Modoc County. Winds appear much less in the Tulelake and Medicine
Lake area. We have issued a Fire Weather Watch for similar areas
as the Warning minus fire zone 284 for Thursday afternoon.
Thunderstorms...there is a small instability over the Cascades from
northern Oregon down to near Diamond Lake this afternoon and again
Thursday afternoon. This will affect the eastern part of the Umpqua
NF but nor far enough south to get into the Crater Lake area.
For coastal areas, southerly winds have brought stratus low
clouds past Coos Bay into the Florence area. The lower clouds and
high humidity could persist until around noon, especially in Coos
County. Guidance shows conditions at North Bend airport is not
expected to clear until around 1300 PDT, so interior Coos County
could see low clouds through late this morning. Similar pattern
can be expected again Thursday. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2017/
DISCUSSION...The long holiday weekend may be over but the weather
at least through the upcoming weekend will not be much different.
This includes coastal stratus and patchy fog that is most
extensive during the night and morning hours, hot and dry
conditions inland with highs around 10 degrees above normal, and
breezy to locally windy afternoons and evenings...strongest this
afternoon, and in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades.
With those gusty winds and low relative humidity, a red flag
warning /PDXRFWMFR/ remains in effect for this afternoon and
evening for portions of Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath, and Lake
Counties. Winds on Thursday are forecast to be slightly weaker
than today. Please see the fire weather discussion below for
additional details.
The current and persistent upper level pattern is a strong ridge
centered over the desert southwest and a broad trough in the Gulf
of Alaska. This results in a dry southwest flow aloft. A slight
chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast for this evening
north of Crater Lake and also well to the east over the Warner
Mountains. But, it is most likely that there will only be a few
cumulus buildups in those higher elevation areas. It will be a
similar story on Thursday evening. Stability is expected to
increase Friday then very weak instability is shown by the GFS
over far eastern Lake County on Saturday.
Another aspect of the weather with some variation will be
positioning of coastal low clouds and patchy fog. The stratus
along the coast and in the Coquille Valley is expected to make it
just about as far inland as Elkton early this morning. There is
good model agreement on a farther inland intrusion into Douglas
County on Thursday morning and again on Friday morning.
Uncertainty in the stratus forecast increases by the weekend, but
the general pattern will persist.
After the weekend, the Pacific trough is likely to make eastward
progress into western Canada and have at least a modestly larger
influence on our weather. The 00Z GFS ensemble and the ECMWF
differ in speed but have trended farther north with the track. As
a result, high temperatures for the first half of next week have
been nudged upward...closer to the levels that have been and will
be seen each day of the preceding week. In the latter portions of
the forecast, there may finally be an increase in moisture aloft
and the development of sufficient instability that would generate
thunderstorms. But, uncertainty is moderate to high at this early
juncture.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ624.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for ORZ624-625.
CA... Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ281.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for CAZ281-285.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.
CZS/DW/MAPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Fay Wildfire started around 11 AM PDT on 07/05/17. As of the last report on 07/21/17, the fire was at 469 acres and was 100% contained. 2.4 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in California, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 702831.