Isolated severe thunderstorm along a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of south central Virginia.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorm along a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of south central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 12:38 PM EST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls over northeast North Carolina through tonight. Waves of low pressure develop along the front, sliding offshore through Thursday morning. The front lifts slowly northward Thursday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front pushes across the region on Friday. Another front pushes across the region Saturday, followed by high pressure on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak frontal boundary is located from SW VA through Ern NC this morning. Onshore flow and abundant low-level moisture has resulted in mostly cloudy conditions from the Nrn Neck through coastal SE VA/NE NC and the Ern Shore. Additional clouds are over the Piedmont along with a few showers approaching from the W. Partial clearing has occurred from S-central VA into interior NE NC. Warm and humid this morning with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s. Shortwave trough/closed upper low over the Midwest opens and slowly ejects eastward today as subtropical high pressure centers off the Southeast coast. Heights rise over the Mid- Atlantic region ahead of the approaching shortwave, allowing the upper flow to become west to southwest. The frontal boundary stalls in the vicinity of northeast North Carolina, snaking northward over the central Appalachians in the amplifying flow aloft. High pressure slides off the Northeast coast this afternoon, as flow remains onshore, reinforcing the anomalously moist air mass over the region. Precipitable waters climb upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches (+1-2 standard deviations), with dewpoints forecast in the low 70's. The added low level convergence from the frontal boundary lifting into the Piedmont and an upper jet exiting the Delmarva will produce scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and evening. Instability will be limited by modest mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover, but still anticipate embedded, but not widespread, thunder. Onshore flow near the coast results in more stable conditions and lower chances for showers. Best coverage will be from the Piedmont into central Virginia. Given the anomalously moist air mass and deeply saturated column, expect rain to be heavy at times. The area remains highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall by WPC. Will highlight in the HWO. Given the recent dry conditions, no flood headlines needed. Highs will be curbed by onshore flow, showers, and cloud cover, warming only into the low to mid 80's. 70's near the coast. Frontal boundary lifts northward tonight as shortwave energy lifts into the Ohio Valley. Deepest moisture gets shunted northward, along with the best chances for showers. Have highest POPs (40-50%) across the northern half of the forecast area tonight, with low end chance POPs southeast, away from the better moisture. Lows forecast in the low 70's under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Additional upper level energy digs into the Midwest Thursday, deepening the upper level trough over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. An associated cold front reaches the Tennessee Valley late Thursday. Weak boundary remains over the region Thursday as height falls induce a wave of low pressure along the boundary. Warm and moist air mass remains over the region, resulting in another round of scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Best coverage expected just north of the boundary over the northern local area, and along the coast from added low level convergence. High's Thursday generally in the upper 80's to low 90's. Lull in the precip expected Thursday night ahead of the approaching upper trough and cold front as the wave of low pressure slides off the coast. However, given the air mass, will carry slight chance to low end chance POPs Thursday night. Lows in the low to mid 70's. Cold front pushes across the region Friday, as the shortwave de- amplifies and lifts north of the region. Deepest moisture pushes offshore ahead of the front as flow from 1-3km becomes westerly (downslope). This will likely limit convection over the Piedmont, with the best chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from central Virginia eastward. The main impact Friday will be the hot afternoon temperatures. 850Mb temperatures of 18-20 C (+1 standard deviation) and good mixing (southwest wind of 10-15 mph) will push temperatures into the low to mid 90's. Given the humid air mass, heat index values forecast around 100 southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period starts off Fri night/Sat with a lobe of vorticity and associated forcing pushing offshore. Included a 20-30% chance of rain Fri night with low temps in the low-mid 70s. Fairly typical summer-time conditions thereafter for Sat through Tue with a 20-30% of aftn/eveng shras/tstms on avg with transient mid-level shortwave troughs passing through the region along with periodic sfc troughs in the area. High temps Sat through Tue in the mid/upr 80s with low temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... With heating scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms are developing across both VA and NC. Expect coverage to increase some across central and southeast VA as well as northeast NC through the afternoon and into early evening. Do not expect much shower or storm activity across lower MD. In areas of the showers, rain will be heavy limiting visibility to 3 miles or less. In regards to ceiling, conditions have generally improved to VFR with some pockets of MVFR across portions of eastern and central VA. Do expect pockets of MVFR ceilings to continue through the afternoon though it should not be widespread. IFR conditions would only be expected with a scattered heavy shower this afternoon and evening. IFR conditions are possible tonight with low stratus and some fog especially along the immediate coast and central VA, generally after 03-06Z. Have IFR in all TAF sites expect ECG for now Outlook: Mainly sctd aftn and evening showers and tstms expected again Thu, as a frontal boundary and weak low pressure areas remain over the region. A more pronounced cold front pushes acrs the region late Fri into Fri night. && .MARINE... No significant changes to marine forecast. E to ENE winds increase a few knots later this afternoon up to 15 kt for a short period. Sub-SCA conditions to continue today and Thu, though with sfc high pressure pushing ESE off the New England coast and a stalled sfc front/trough extending off the NC coast by the aftn, expect easterly winds to increase to 10 to 15 kt for much of the area. Seas should build to 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay and mouth of the tidal rivers to 1-2 ft by late aftn and this evening. The boundary slowly lifts back to the N overnight and Thu, with a weakening pressure gradient and winds falling off to 5-10 kt for most areas. A gradual shift in wind direction from E/NE to S/SE will occur Thu aftn/evening as the weak boundary lifts farther N. An approaching cold front with sfc low pressure passing NE of the area Fri will bring a breezy SW flow to the area, with marginal SCA conditions possible mainly across the lower Bay for a period of 15-20 kt winds and the northern coast for 4-5 ft seas well offshore. Still some model disagreement with exact position of various features and current forecast will be for conditions just below SCA thresholds. Beyond that, some additional uncertainty as to how far S the front pushes later Sat into Sun, the GFS being more aggressive than the ECMWF at a complete frontal passage through the local area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...SAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM/JAO MARINE...LKB/JAO
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 417 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>082-087>089-092-093- 096-097-509>511-513>516-060830- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Isle of Wight- Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- 417 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through this evening. Heavy rainfall is the main threat. Minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-NCZ017-102-VAZ064-075>078-083>086-090-095-098>100-512- 517>525-060830- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews- James City-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton- Eastern Hanover-Western King William-Eastern King William- Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 417 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Minnick
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
142 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
VAZ083-518-520-051830-
New Kent-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
142 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN KING
AND QUEEN AND SOUTHEASTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTIES...
At 141 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from near King And Queen Court House to near
Shacklefords. Movement was slowly north at 5 mph.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
West Point, Little Plymouth, Shacklefords, Eltham, Cohoke, Gressit,
Rose Garden, Mattaponi, Mascot, Cooke, Velma, Romancoke, Plum Point
and Clancie.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3762 7669 3760 7665 3753 7667 3748 7665
3746 7666 3746 7668 3744 7671 3745 7673
3747 7674 3746 7676 3756 7697 3765 7695
3766 7684 3766 7672
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 172DEG 5KT 3759 7691 3750 7669
joSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
146 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
VAZ064-519-051845-
Western King and Queen-Caroline-
146 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAROLINE
COUNTY...
At 144 PM EDT, showers with heavy rain were located along a line
extending from near Ladysmith to Sparta southeast of Bowling Green.
Movement was slowly northwest at 5 mph.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Milford, Sparta, Golansville, Penola, Nancy Wrights
Corner, and Salvia.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these showers.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3812 7724 3796 7707 3795 7707 3795 7750
3801 7762 3812 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 129DEG 6KT 3800 7748 3800 7723
joSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
205 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
VAZ066-051900-
Lunenburg-
205 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
...An area of SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
LUNENBURG COUNTY...
At 203 PM EDT, showers with heavy rain were located along a line
extending from near Rehoboth to near Kells Corner. Movement was east
at 10 mph.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Victoria, Plantersville, Blevins Corner, Pleasant Grove, Arvins
Store, and Fort Mitchell.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these showers.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3699 7847 3709 7840 3709 7838 3704 7818
3687 7837 3686 7843 3687 7843 3687 7846
3689 7849 3690 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 270DEG 10KT 3700 7837 3692 7843
joSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
VAZ082-083-052030-
Charles City-New Kent-
328 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHARLES
CITY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW KENT COUNTIES...
At 328 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over
Roxbury, moving southwest at 5 mph.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Talleysville, Roxbury, Providence Forge, Wrights Corner, Colonial
Downs, Browns Corner, Mountcastle and New Kent Airport.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor flooding
of ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3755 7706 3748 7694 3740 7707 3742 7719
3751 7717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 063DEG 6KT 3747 7710
SEYMOURThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Roof of a furniture store was damaged along North Mecklenburg Avenue. There was also minor roof damage to a mobile home on Union Mill Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 714535.