Arizona, 2017

Strong Wind in Arizona, December 7, 2017

December 7, 2017 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A back door cold front funneled northeast winds between the Santa Catalina and Tortolita Mountains, which caused isolated wind damage in Dove Mountain.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$1,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A back door cold front funneled northeast winds between the Santa Catalina and Tortolita Mountains, which caused isolated wind damage in Dove Mountain.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 7, 4:00 AM MST, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 7, 4:00 AM MST, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
400 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Much cooler temperatures with gusty winds today followed
by freezing temperatures for much of the area tonight. Dry
conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail this weekend
and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery and surface observations depicted
clear skies from Tucson westward at this time. Meanwhile, partly
cloudy to cloudy skies were noted across eastern sections. Dew
points valid 3 AM MST were 10-20 degrees lower versus 24 hours ago
north of a Safford-Tucson-Sells line, and were mainly in the single
digits to 20s. Dew points were still in the 30s south-to-southeast
of Tucson. Stronger winds were also ongoing north of Tucson, and
especially across central/northern Arizona.

A highly amplified upper pattern continues across the eastern
Pacific and CONUS early this morning, with a north-to-south ridge
axis near the West Coast, and a broad trough east of the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery depicted a cyclonic twist representing a vort
max moving southward near the Four Corners region. There still
appears to be just enough moisture to support a slight chance of
showers near the New Mexico border today.

Otherwise, the main emphasis today will be regarding much cooler
temperatures and gusty northeast-to-east winds as northerly flow
aloft strengthens across the area. There is the potential for patchy
blowing dust, but have not opted to depict at this time with the
official forecast issuance with the notion that visibilities will
not be significantly reduced.

Clearing skies across eastern sections early this evening then clear
skies are expected area-wide later tonight. The combination of clear
or mostly clear skies and a very dry near-surface environment will
promote very cold temperatures from Tucson eastward. Although some
elevated wind speeds will likely occur, forecast confidence was
sufficiently high to have converted the inherited Freeze Watch to a
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday. Please
refer to AWIPS product PHXNPWTWC /WMO header WWUS75 KTWC/ for
additional information.

Thereafter, the highly amplified upper pattern continues to be
progged by the 07/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS Friday into the
middle of next week. These solutions remained quite close to
previous solutions from 24-48 hours ago. A Rex Block pattern is
progged to develop Saturday as strong high pressure aloft becomes
centered over the Pacific Northwest, and weak low pressure aloft
develops west of the Baja California spur.

The GFS/ECMWF then move the upper low northeastward to the northern
Baja California/northern Gulf of California area early next week.
Appears that precip-free conditions will continue with any moisture
of significance above about 600 mb. This moisture may be sufficient
for partly cloudy skies into Monday before clear skies or mostly
clear skies return Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be about 5-15
degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago. The greatest cooling will likely
occur from Tucson northward. Slightly warmer temperatures are on tap
Friday followed by more significant warming Saturday. Only minor
daily temperature changes Sunday and Monday with a few degrees of
additional warming by next Wednesday. Thus, below normal daytime
temperatures into Friday will be short-lived as above normal temps
are forecast to return Saturday and continue into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 08/12Z.
Isolated -SHRA mainly near the New Mexico state line today.
Otherwise, clear skies KTUS vicinity westward into Friday morning.
East of KTUS scattered to overcast clouds generally 5k-10k ft AGL
into this afternoon, then clear or mostly clear skies by daybreak
Friday. Surface wind increasing from the northeast to east 12-25 kts
with gusts upward to 40 kts after 16Z and into this afternoon.
Surface wind this evening into Friday nely/ely 5-15 kts tonight.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 4 PM MST this
afternoon for most of AZZ150 and for AZZ151 north of the Catalina
Mountains. The combination of strong and gusty northeast winds, low
relative humidity and a high fire danger will create critical fire
conditions.

Otherwise, isolated showers may occur near the New Mexico border
today followed by dry conditions tonight into next Wednesday. Strong
and gusty northeast to east winds today then winds diminishing this
evening. 20-foot winds will generally be easterly under 15 mph
Friday into next Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 4 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ150-151.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday morning
for AZZ503-504-506>509.

&&

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Hardin

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Strong Wind, Tucson Metro Area

When
December 7, 4:00 AM MST to 7:00 AM MST
Where
Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Measured
43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$1,000
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong northeast winds downed several small trees at the residence of the Pinal County Emergency Manager.

What these are

Strong Wind
Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, December 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 731571.