A quickly moving low pressure system pushed into Southwest Alaska. The pressure gradient was favorably oriented to help produce localized strong gap winds.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A quickly moving low pressure system pushed into Southwest Alaska. The pressure gradient was favorably oriented to help produce localized strong gap winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 3:54 AM AKST, 10 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper-level ridge has moved over much of Mainland Alaska,
pushing the trough previously over the Mainland further eastward
over Canada and southeast Alaska. As seen in current observations,
this ridging has aided in bringing an onshore flow pattern over
the western Mainland, and offshore flow pattern over Southcentral
Alaska and the Gulf. Further west, a broad upper-level trough is
spreading over much of the western and central Aleutians/Bering.
At the base of this trough, the right entrance region of a 170 kt
upper-level jet is helping strengthen the surface low currently
pushing through the eastern Aleutians. Current observations show
this system will be the primary weather-maker for the eastern half
of the Aleutians/Bering and southern Mainland, spreading strong
gusty winds and rain as it progresses eastward through the
weekend.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the weekend with the
overall synoptic pattern, but continue to struggle with the finer
details of the system currently pushing through the eastern
Aleutians. Models have come into better agreement with the track
staying north of the Aleutian chain as it approaches the Bristol
Bay area and crosses into the Gulf by Sunday. Timing was initially
an issue in the 00Z model runs, with the American models (NAM/GFS)
being slightly faster than the Canadian and EC with the low
progression as it crosses over the eastern Aleutians this morning.
The EC eventually catches up with the American models this
afternoon, leaving the Canadian as the slightly slower outlier.
The EC was used to make edits to the overall synoptic pattern,
with the NAMnest being utilized for smaller scale details.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. There is
a slight chance that fog develops along the inlet early this
morning, so added a short duration during Saturday morning to
mention this possibility. MVFR conditions are expected to move
over the Anchorage bowl later tonight, as the next system tracks
in from the southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A ridge out ahead of the rapidly deepening low tracking in from
the eastern Aleutians will bring a mostly sunny day to
southcentral Alaska today. The frontal system associated with the
incoming low will push across Kodiak Island this afternoon and
continue northeast tonight. The surface low will track east-
northeast along the northern coast of the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon and evening with the surface low crossing the Peninsula
around midnight and tracking up Shelikof Strait. On the south and
western periphery of this surface low we are expecting a strong
push of west to southwesterly winds of 45 to 50 knots, and
potentially stronger gusts through bays and passes in the Alaska
Peninsula late tonight through Sunday morning. Additionally, a
strong southeasterly surge associated with the initial frontal
system will bring a strong push of east to southeasterly winds
through Prince William Sound, Passage Canal, Turnagain Arm and the
Anchorage Hillside late tonight as well. Once the surface low
tracks to the east Sunday night, prevailing west to northwesterly
flow will taper showers off with breezy offshore gap winds
developing.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
A relatively quiet start to the weekend will quickly give way to
more active weather. The subtropical jet is already readily
visible on satellite as it pushes towards the Bristol Bay
coastline. Along the jet, a surface low will develop and rapidly
deepen as it crosses back and forth over the Alaska Peninsula
today. Gusty northeast to southeast winds will develop across the
SW mainland this afternoon. Rain should reach the coastline of
Bristol Bay by early this afternoon before tracking into the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. As the low slides through
Bristol Bay and then back over the Aleutian Range towards the
Barren Islands, winds will switch around to a northwesterly
direction. This will allow the system to tap into some colder air
and develop an axis of stronger winds across the Alaska Peninsula.
A high wind watch has been issued to address these conditions.
The other forecast challenge with this system will be how much
cold air it pulls down, and if there is any precipitation still
falling when it does so. There is an outside shot that some snow
could mix in with rain for places west and north of King Salmon.
However, temperatures at the surface will be too warm to allow for
any accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
The Bering will remain mostly quiet today with the exception of
the extreme eastern portion that will be impacted by the Alaska
Peninsula low. Expect gusty winds and rapidly building seas in a
corridor east of the Pribilof Islands and south of Cape Newenham.
Weak ridging will dominate the rest of the Bering today making for
light westerly flow. The next low of concern will track off of
Kamchatka tonight and push a front into the Western Bering. This
will bring a wide swath of gale-force winds from west to east on
Sunday. The system will become the dominant weather-maker as it
moves across the area to end the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
A compact storm will skirt along the Alaska Peninsula today. This
will bring shifting winds and rapidly building wind waves,
especially to marine zones 150, 155, and 160. Winds will start out
mostly light and variable before sunrise. But then they will shift
to a southerly direction while increasing to gale-force for
locations south of the Alaska Peninsula this morning. In Bristol
Bay, expect gale-force easterly winds by this afternoon. The low
will reach maximum intensity sometime late this afternoon through
into the evening hours as it moves into Bristol Bay. Seas will
follow suit building to 20 to 25 ft south of the peninsula and to
10 to 15 ft on the Bering side.
As the low slides east, a core of stronger winds will develop on
the backside in west to northwest flow. This will bring the most
hazardous conditions with gusts to hurricane-force possible,
especially out of bays and passes on the Pacific Side. Mariners
are advised to use caution and monitor the forecast for any
updates.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid term forecast begins with a front moving over southwest
Alaska from the Bering which will bring more rain to the area
Sunday night. The front will mostly fall apart before making it
over Southcentral Alaska but some showers should make it over the
area by Monday night.
Tuesday into Wednesday is where the models start to struggle with
how to handle a low moving into the western Bering. There is
better agreement than yesterday but they still have not locked in
on the intensity or placement of this low. What they all do
agree on is high pressure remaining south of mainland Alaska
through much of next week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 181.
MARINE...Storm 130 132 150 155 165.
Gale 119 120 125 131 136-139 161 170-172 175 177 178 180
185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK<!doctype html>
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</html>1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
False Pass AWOS reported a wind gust of 78 mph at 14:50 AKDT. Nelson Lagoon AWOS reported a wind gust of 82 mph at 18:35 AKDT. Multiple other observations across the Alaska Peninsula reported wind gusts between 65 and 74 mph including Cold Bay and King Cove. No reports of any structural damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 723426.