As the remnants of Hurricane Nate lifted into the lower Ohio Valley on October 7-8, the system interacted with an approaching cold front from the Upper Midwest. This brought widespread rainfall between 2 and 4 inches with isolated reports of flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
As the remnants of Hurricane Nate lifted into the lower Ohio Valley on October 7-8, the system interacted with an approaching cold front from the Upper Midwest. This brought widespread rainfall between 2 and 4 inches with isolated reports of flash flooding. A few storms also produced damaging wind gusts which damaged a few houses in Ohio County, Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 5:38 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 738 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 ...Widespread Soaking Rains Expected Tonight Through Sunday... Active period as two systems work together to bring us some soaking rains. The first is bringing us some cloud cover and some showers early this afternoon. Coverage should become more widespread by late afternoon, as the region moves into the right rear quadrant of a departing upper level jet over the Midwest. That forcing should end early Sunday morning, but then round two will come in the form of the decaying Tropical Cyclone Nate. That system is forecast to move into Eastern Kentucky later Sunday evening. As far as weather hazards. Late this afternoon through the evening hours we will have to watch for gusty winds as well as watch for rotating signatures, as our environment could allow for an isolated tornado or two...low level wind shear is in the 30-40 knot range and effective helicities range from 200-400. Also, precipitable waters bump up over 2 inches, indicating a heavy rain threat. With bands of precip expected to form along that enhanced lift axis behind the jet, we should see a swath of 1-2 inch rainfall totals, possibly more, along a line from Hartford to Louisville. That banding will weaken somewhat early Sunday, but the NAM doesn't rid us of it entirely...it just makes it weaker. The heavier rain focus then will shift to the rains coming in just ahead of Nate by late Sunday afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor. Current pressure forecasts indicate a looser gradient over our area, with tighter packing east of the center. So not as worried about a wind threat. However, there could once again be decent shear close and east of the center for additional rotating showers in the Sunday evening time frame. At this point, that threat should stay around the Lake Cumberland area, if we can realize any low-level instability. Briefly debated putting out a flood watch, but a couple of factors argue against it. Our flash flood guidance is very high, owing to several days in a row of dryness. Area rivers should easily handle the rain as well. Second, there will be some narrow swaths of higher amounts, so we would not meet the widespread threat of flooding rains criteria. Thus will continue to highlight the heavy rain threat in the outlook product and our various social media posts. Temperatures will be held in check with lower values during the day and warming readings at night, thanks to all of the moisture in the region. .Long Term (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 We should start to dry out, briefly, Monday and Monday night. Then a warm front will lift north into the area Tuesday, bringing a return to shower/storm chances for midweek, as that boundary lingers over the area. For late week, ridging builds into the area again, which should bring a dry and warming trend. && .Aviation (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening ahead of a pre-frontal trof and cold front coming in from the west. As Nate approaches and interacts with the front, rain will become more widespread and possibly heavy late tonight and into Sunday. As the very moist, tropical atmosphere settles in ceilings will drop and remain low. Winds will come in from the south and southwest this evening ahead of the front, then switch to the east-northeast tomorrow as Nate's circulation heads into eastern Kentucky. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Short Term........RJS Long Term.........RJS Aviation..........13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-081900- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 /151 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Rain chances pick up along the Ohio River this afternoon and continuing into the rest of Central Kentucky overnight, as a cold front interacts with tropical moisture moving into the region. Scattered thunderstorms will develop within theses rains. The main threats with these storms will be brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out through the evening hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Sunday night as the remnants of Hurricane Nate move north from the Gulf Coast. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the official intensity and track forecast of current Tropical Storm Nate. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for stronger winds this evening as well as heavy rains and flooding through the weekend. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. RJS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017
INZ076-083-084-072315-
Crawford-Orange-Dubois-
654 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN DUBOIS...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...
At 652 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from near Jasper
to 6 miles northeast of Dale.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Paoli, Ferdinand, French Lick, Orangeville, West Baden
Springs, Birdseye, Dubois, Hillham and Celestine.
LAT...LON 3845 8689 3853 8682 3853 8668 3867 8668
3869 8666 3869 8648 3839 8649 3825 8670
3825 8679 3820 8680 3820 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 227DEG 46KT 3843 8685 3821 8688
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017
INZ076-077-080015-
Orange-Washington-
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
ORANGE AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 742 PM EDT, radar indicated showers from 8 miles northeast of
Paoli to 10 miles west of Salem to 14 miles northeast of English.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Salem, Campbellsburg, Livonia, Saltillo, Bromer, Kossuth, Smedley,
Claysville, Hitchcock, and Prowsville.
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these gusty showers pass.
LAT...LON 3878 8606 3876 8603 3877 8602 3876 8601
3877 8598 3876 8599 3875 8597 3874 8597
3863 8591 3847 8631 3860 8637 3878 8618
3876 8614 3877 8610 3878 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 232DEG 36KT 3860 8632 3855 8629 3851 8631
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
817 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017
KYZ023-024-026-027-080145-
Grayson-Hancock-Ohio-Breckinridge-
817 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK...
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON...SOUTHWESTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND OHIO COUNTIES...
At 817 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hartford,
moving northeast at 45 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Hartford, Beaver Dam, Fordsville, Centertown, Taffy, Ralph, Shreve,
Tousey, Magan and Jingo.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3755 8705 3761 8698 3767 8682 3768 8683
3777 8666 3750 8652 3736 8710 3748 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 242DEG 39KT 3750 8697
AMSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Officials reported 5 power poles fell along north Main Street.
A large tree fell and blocked Highway 231.
Law enforcement reported damage to a few houses.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, October 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 717985, 717986, 717987.