High Wind in Alaska, November 6 to 7, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread is minimal through both the short range as well as the mid
range. Model spread both between model families and from run to
run is quite reasonable in the long range.

A long wave ridge centered over the eastern Bering Sea and Western
Alaska will push east today to be centered over the western and
central interior as a deep upper level low moves east over the
Chuktosk Peninsula tonight and Tuesday. The ridge will continue to
move east over the central and eastern interior Tuesday into
Wednesday.

The surface reflection of the upper level low moves north today
out of the Kamchatka Peninsula into the Chuktosk Peninsula and
deepens to around 974 mb. A tight pressure gradient develops along
a strong front wrapping around the low and extending into the
western Bering Sea today. The front will move north and east today
and will pass through the Bering Strait tonight. Very strong
winds are expected ahead of and along the front today and tonight
and have prompted high wind warnings for St Lawrence Island, the
Bering Strait as well as the Chukchi Sea Coast north of Kivalina.
Wind gusts to 65 mph are expected on St Lawrence Island and
through the Bering Strait and wind gusts to 60 mph are expected
along the Chukchi Sea Coast north of Kivalina especially near
Point Hope.

Mixed rain and snow showers are expected ahead of the front south
of the Seward Peninsula with mostly snow showers expected to the
north. Snow showers will move into the western interior tonight
and into the central interior tomorrow with 1 to 2 inches of snow
expected. Strong southeast winds are expected to develop over
Kotzebue Sound and will need to monitor timing of snow and winds
and potential for reduced visibilities in blowing snow for
areas near Kotzebue Sound.

Surge guidance continues to indicate above normal tides in the 1
to 2 foot range along the northwest coast associated with the low
pressure passing to the west however winds are expected to remain
off shore or at worst case along shore tonight and Tuesday and are
not expected to push waves up the beach. Duration and direction of
the stronger winds will not favor high wave run up onto the
beaches along the northwest coast. Elevated water levels in the 2
to 3 foot range are also indicated along the south and southwest
facing coasts along the western Seward Peninsula and through the
Bering Strait. The short duration of the strong southerly winds
combined with a relatively short fetch will limit elevated surf
impacts in these areas. Winds shift to the west over Norton Sound
Tuesday night behind the front and will increase water level to
around 3 to 4 feet above normal tide levels Wednesday over eastern
Norton Sound. West winds will continue into Wednesday night and
Thursday morning and will continue to pile up water into eastern
Norton Sound. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Winds shift to the west over Norton Sound Tuesday night behind
the front and will increase water level to around 3 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels Wednesday over eastern Norton Sound. West
winds will continue into Wednesday night and Thursday morning and
will continue to pile up water into eastern Norton Sound.
Continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC NOV 17