High Wind in Alaska, November 25, 2017

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Models are fairly consistent through Sunday with the
overall weather pattern with some differences creeping in around
Sunday night into Monday. Overall the models general weather
pattern is similar just exact timing or location of upper and
surface low pressure features with variations from the GFS, ECMWF
and NAM models. More divergence in models as move middle next week
with exact location and strength of the upper level low pressure
system off West Coast with ECMWF indicating an open wave trough
and GFS closed low near Newtok.

Aloft at 500 mb...A 512 dam low is Expect the winds to diminish by
Monday.located northwest of Arctic village with an upper level
ridge moving towards the West coast of Alaska by Saturday morning.
A weak shortwave will move towards the Chukchi Sea and will get
pushed northward as it moves into the upper level ridge by
Saturday night. This ridge located over the Western Interior will
slowly diminish as the other upper level low that moved from
Arctic Village remains located near Fairbanks and will slowly push
west on Sunday night. Meanwhile there will be another low moving
across the Bering Sea toward the Pribilof Islands by Sunday. This
system will bring in precipitation over St Lawrence island and
coastal portions near the Yukon Delta on Sunday. This low will
meander near the Pribilof Islands before moving towards Bristol
Bay by Monday night.

Surface...1009 mb south of Deadhorse will continue to move east
and merge with low pressure over the Canadian Archipelago tonight.
A 1023 mb high north of the Canadian Archipelago will move
southwest to 800 nm north of Point Barrow by Saturday morning with
high pressure extending south over the Central and Eastern
Interior. A rapidly developing low pressure system will move to
the Western Aleutians tomorrow morning at 978 mb and then move to
the Pribilof Island by Sunday morning at around 950 mb and then
meander through the area before moving to Bristol Bay. Leeside
troughing will develop across the Alaska Range on Sunday thus can
expect gusty winds to develop with the Tanana Valley Jet setting
up across the Delta Junction area.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low over the area has moved south
of Deadhorse and continues to slowly move east and producing some
upslope enhanced snows north of the Brooks Range. Areas of blowing
snow with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible along the Dalton
Highway over Atigun Pass should diminish in the early evening as
the low weakens. Visibilities should improve along the passes
early this evening with the diminished winds. Temperatures will
continue to fall as the low moves east with clearing skies.

West Coast and Western Interior...Continued quiet weather across
the area as high pressure ridge moves into the area. There may be
some localized areas with clouds and light snow or flurries, but
generally less than 1 inch of snow. Winds generally less than 10
mph. Temperatures area expected to be cooler tonight, then
warming a few degrees Saturday. There is a surface low pressure
system moving across Bering Sea towards the Pribilof Islands by
Sunday that will causing increased winds of 30 to 40 mph from east
across St Lawrence Island with gusts up to 55 mph. Winds will
shift to the northeast Sunday night into Monday across the area
before diminishing which may cause high surf potential for areas
along the northeast facing coastline of St Lawrence Island.
Potential exists with 2-3 ft above high tide on Monday morning
before dropping down with winds diminishing Monday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloud cover and light snow showers
will continue diminish from north to south across Central
Interior. Blue skies starting to break through with general
clearing from north to south across the greater Fairbanks area.
Expecting temperatures to drop with the clearing cloud cover
tonight and Sunday morning. Leeside troughing will develop north
of the Alaska Range Sunday so gusty Gap winds will develop on
Sunday with the Tanana Valley Jet setting up through the Delta
Junction area. Expect the winds to diminish Monday morning but
could potentially see 45 mph in those areas areas mentioned.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Have issued an Special
Weather Statement for potential for high surf on Sunday night
into Monday morning over St Lawrence Island as expect water levels
to rise 2-3 ft above high tide on northeast facing coast,
including Savoonga. Expecting winds to shift from east to
northeast on Sunday with increase in speed ranging from 30 to 40
mph with wind gusts of 55 mph possible.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

MAK Nov 17