An incoming front brought high winds to a number of locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to a number of locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 25, 9:17 PM PST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2017
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing low pressure tracking
northward along 130W this evening. The trailing cold front is
still well offshore, but the pressure gradient across the area has
increased significantly since early afternoon. This is bringing
gusty southerly winds along the coast south of Cape Blanco, over
the higher terrain, and also to portions of the Shasta Valley,
the southern Rogue Valley and the east side. Winds are currently
blocked along the north coast due to the southeast direction, but
will pick up by daybreak as the front moves onshore and winds
shift from southeast to south-southwest. Gradients (MFR- RDD)
peak at around -7.0mb at 09z-12z tonight. While the strongest
winds will be at the south end of the Rogue Valley, there still
should be a period where SE winds surface here at the airport and
surrounding areas overnight into Sunday morning prior to the
arrival of the front. Please refer to NPWMFR or your local point
and click forecasts for the specifics regarding the locally strong
winds expected overnight into Sunday.
00z guidance hasn't changed all that much with respect to the
arrival of the front Sunday morning at the coast, then its
movement inland during the day. Rain amounts will be fairly
typical for a late-fall front, with the highest amounts (0.50-1.50
inches) in the coastal ranges of Curry and western Josephine
Counties as well as portions of southern and western Siskiyou
County. All models push the front east of the Cascades Sunday
evening with snow levels lowering behind it.
The question is - how much precipitation will be left as the
colder air arrives Sunday night into Monday? We have been
watching the guidance for any shifts northward with another low
expected to track into northern California Sunday night into
Monday. The latest 00z model runs of the NAM/GFS still keep this
low far enough south to preclude significant precipitation from
occurring. However, the earlier runs of the ECMWF/SREF are still
far enough north to keep at least some light precipitation going
as snow levels lower. Here's how we see it - snow levels will
fall to 5000-6000 feet by 4 PM PST Sunday from the Cascades
westward, then will fall to 3500-4500 feet by Monday morning.
Some snow, about 2-5 inches, is expected in the mountains Sunday
afternoon from the Cascades westward and mostly above 6500 feet.
Higher amounts can be expected above 7000 feet. As snow levels
drop Sunday night into Monday, there could still be additional snow
showers. Snow amounts are expected to be generally 2 inches or
less, with perhaps a bit more in the Mount Shasta City area above
town and the interstate. Adjustments will be made, if necessary,
so stay tuned for updates! -Spilde
&&
.AVIATION...26/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions will prevail
initially, but an incoming front will bring in areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys from the Cascades west late tonight with higher terrain
becoming obscured. The lower conditions will persist through Sunday.
Winds will also increase along the coast, over the ridges, and east
of the Cascades. LLWS will be a factor in the KOTH, KRBG, and KMFR
TAFs into Sunday morning. -JRS
&&
.MARINE...Updated 825 PM PST Saturday 25 Nov 2017...A strong cold
front will bring high-end south gales and very steep, hazardous seas
this evening into Sunday morning. Wind driven seas will reach a peak
early Sunday morning. The combination of west swell and a fresh
southwest swell behind the front will continue high and steep seas
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A break from high seas is
expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, swell dominated
seas are likely to rise rapidly late Tuesday with a high to very
high long period west swell expected through Wednesday. -Sven/DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2017/
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...
A warm front continues to lift northward across the forecast area
this afternoon. Behind the front, at higher elevations and in
areas where the increasing pressure gradient has allowed for
enough turbulent mixing to break the valley inversions,
temperatures have soared into the 55 to 65 degree range. This
puts valley temperatures about 10 degrees above the daily normal
maximums, and also within a few degrees of record highs. At
higher elevations the snowpack continues to shrink with these warm
temperatures. Over the next 24 hours, we'll see weather conditions
transition back toward more typical values for the end of
November.
Rainfall amounts today have been just a few hundredths of an inch
at all reporting stations, but a round of showers related to a
mid-level cold front along and near the coast is likely to nudge
portions of Curry County to about a tenth of inch for the current
24 hour period.
Tonight through Sunday wind and rain will increase across the
area. Please see our detailed hazards on our web page, as well as
on the point-and-click forecasts for further details. The heaviest
precipitation rates with this frontal system are expected Sunday
morning between 4 AM PST and 10 AM PST across Curry and Siskiyou
County, when amounts between 0.50" and 1.50" are expected. Snow
levels will still be in the 7500-9000 foot range through Sunday
morning, likely lowest on Mount Shasta and near.
Precipitation rates for most inland areas will peak Sunday
afternoon, and snow levels will finally begin to fall. By 4 PM PST
in the afternoon snow levels should be in the 5000-6000 foot
range from the Cascades westward, so some snow is expected in the
mountains during the afternoon, albeit mostly above 6500 feet.
Per our going forecast, we're expecting 2-5 inches between 6500
and 7500 feet from the Cascades westward, with much more likely
above that.
The biggest wild card in the going forecast is what happens Sunday
night into Monday. For at least it's last 4 consecutive runs, the
ECMWF has indicated a wave of low pressure associated with the -28C
500MB cold pool in the base of the trough riding across our
forecast area, continuing precipitation overnight and into
Wednesday morning as snow levels fall. The ECMWF solution would
result in light to moderate snowfall down to elevations between
3500 and 4500 feet. Meanwhile, the GFS and NAM12 models have been
equally consistent with their solution over the past 36 hours in
showing a much drier solution. All in all, if these other
solutions are correct, we'll see chilly temperatures and areas of
fog and freezing fog for the Monday morning commute. Have
generally leaned more toward the ECMWF and the SREF solutions for
the going forecast. Therefore, we expect showers and snow showers
Sunday night into Monday, but with snow amounts mainly an
additional 2 inches or less, except more in the Mount Shasta City
area above both the town and the interstate.
On Tuesday we expect showers under northwest flow from about the
Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous north and westward with snow level
near 6000 feet. Precipitation amounts are likely to be light. BTL
LONG TERM....Wed (11/29) through Sat (12/02)...
The 21/12Z EC and GFS start off the extended in good agreement.
They both show a weak rex block over the eastern Pacific with a
long wave ridge along 130W and a cutoff low to the south of it
near 30N 130W. Despite the block, the pattern will remain slowly
progressive.
With northwest flow aloft, the extended period will start off dry
and a bit warmer than normal with low level offshore flow. The
ridge axis will break to the east of the area Thursday night, but
the upstream trough will be slow to come in. Will continue the dry
forecast into Thursday night.
That trough will dig as it approaches the coast, and it will be a
significant one by the time it moves onshore Friday night into
Saturday. The associated surface front will move onshore Friday
afternoon into Friday evening, so will go with increasing POPs from
Friday into Friday night, then back off a bit Saturday as post-
frontal showers diminish after the trough departs and a long wave
ridge begins to build into the west coast.
MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Saturday 25 Nov 2017...A strong cold
front will bring high-end south gales and very steep, hazardous seas
this evening into Sunday morning. Wind driven seas will reach a peak
early Sunday morning. The combination of west swell and a fresh
southwest swell behind the front will continue high and steep seas
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A break from high seas
is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. But, swell
dominated seas are likely to rise rapidly late Tuesday with a high
to very high long period west swell expected through Wednesday.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ029>031.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PST Sunday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST Sunday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for CAZ084-085.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM PST Sunday for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM PST Sunday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for
PZZ370-376.
MAS/SBN/BTL/JRS/DWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Long Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 63 mph at 26/2313 PST and a gust to 60 mph at 27/0313 PST.
The Squaw Peak RAWS recorded several gusts exceeding 75 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 85 mph, recorded at 25/2339 PST.
The Browns Well RAWS recorded a gust to 58 mph at 26/0749 PST. The Coffee Pot Flat RAWS recorded gust to 58 mph at 26/1044 PST and 26/1144 PST. The Rock Creek RAWS recorded a gust to 63 mph at 26/1127 PST. The Summer Lake RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 26/0338 PST. The Summit RAWS recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph between 26/0603 PST and 26/1703 PST. The peak gust was 63 mph, recorded at 26/1303 PST.
The ODOT sensor at Gold Beach recorded a gust to 59 mph at 26/1147 PST. The ODOT sensor at Humbug Mountain recorded a gust to 62 mph at 26/0418 PST, a gust to 65 mph at 26/0447 PST, and a gust to 58 mph at 26/0501 PST.
The ASOS at Klamath Falls Airport reported a peak gust of 60 mph at 26/0537 PST.
The Calimus RAWS recorded many gusts exceeding 58 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 67 mph, recorded at 26/0700 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 723089, 723092, 723095, 723090, 723093, 723094.