|The warm air advection caused the arctic front to retreat rapidly, so snowfall amounts were much less than forecasted. Only the Mendenhall Valley got a dump of new snow.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
The arctic front over the central Panhandle interacted with a 1000 MB low off shore to create an overrunning snow event on 11/10 affecting much of the northern Panhandle.|The warm air advection caused the arctic front to retreat rapidly, so snowfall amounts were much less than forecasted. Only the Mendenhall Valley got a dump of new snow. |Other areas, the snow changed to rain.
|.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 9, 3:54 PM AKST, 14 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SHORT TERM.../Through Sat night/ First significant snow
accumulation expected for many areas tomorrow as a front moves
over the panhandle. Guidance continues to show moisture being
drawn into the panhandle up and over the cold air that persists
in the inner channels. Snow is expected to continue to fall
through Friday evening before starting to taper off. Eastern gulf
coast and Southern panhandle will likely see more rain mixing in
with any snow as enough warm air gets drawn into the area limiting
snow accumulations in those areas.
Snow is expected to start late tonight in Yakutat before
spreading eastward Fri morning. Heaviest snowfall is expected
late tonight and early Friday for Yakutat, and during the day
Friday for Northern and Central inner channels. Heaviest
accumulations will be along the Ice Strait corridor where 5 to 9
inches total may accumulation by late Fri night. As such the
Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings
for the amount of snow that is expected as well as this being the
first such storm this season. Lighter accumulation expected
elsewhere with Haines, Yakutat, Kake, Wrangell, and Petersburg
under winter weather advisories. Highest uncertainly for snow
accumulations is on the northern (Due to downslope drying from
outflow in Haines and Juneau) and southern sides (due to warm air
changing the precip to rain in zone 26) of the precip shield.
Precip is expected to diminish through Sat as outflow resumes.
Behind this system cold air outflow winds begin to pick up again
Sat into Sat night as a strong cold air mass moves into the
southern Yukon. Expect winds to pick up to near gale force in Lynn
Canal again with gusts to 35 mph or higher from the usual outflow
regions in the northern panhandle. Temperatures will also be on
the downward trend after briefly being warmer due to cloud cover
Thu night and Fri night.
Gfs and some Nam used for guidance. Mainly local effect changes
for the new forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Highly amplified long
wave pattern will be in place by start of long term. Strong upper
ridge will be over the Bering Sea while a deep upper trof will be
over the gulf and SE AK. This pattern looks like it will persist
into late next week, although models suggest the axis of both the
ridge and trof may back W a bit late in the week. This will keep
cold airmasses flowing into the area during the week. Big
questions will be where and how much precip will occur in this
pattern? There will be several shortwaves that dive SSE into the
deep upper trof, and they will produce precip as sfc lows develop
over the E gulf in response to the shortwave forcing. The arctic
front will also be around, likely somewhere over the central
panhandle during much of the time as well.
First low will be over the SE gulf at start of long range Sat,
with some leftover precip across the S, and this system should
move SE. However, models hint another low may develop even further
S and lift N toward Haida Gwaii Sat night and Sun. This new low
becomes important as another shortwave digs into the gulf Sun and
develops its own low, and the low near Haida Gwaii may get picked
up and lifted N into SE AK in response to backing flow aloft ahead
of the deepening upper shortwave. Precip from the more eastern
low center will most likely affect at least the S half of the
area, with some model differences on how far N the precip gets. Of
course ptype will be an issue with snow the more likely ptype as
you go N. Way too early to tell how much rain and snow will occur
due to the aforementioned model differences Sun into Mon. The
systems will be slow to move out, but should slowly sink S of the
area through midweek.
Each shortwave dropping into the deepening upper trof will bring
a shot of colder air with it as well. Temps should be below
average through most of the long range with progressively colder
air moving in behind each system. By the middle of next
week...temps may be 10 or more degrees below average. The cold air
will be accompanied by strong outflow winds as well, with gale to
storm force winds possible during strongest outflow.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight AKST Friday
night for AKZ026.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to midnight AKST Friday
night for AKZ025.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ019.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ020-
021.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST
Friday for AKZ017.
Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043-051-052.
&&
EAL/RWT
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
The Juneau NWS Office measured 6.7 inches of new snow by midnight on the night of 11/10. Snettisham also got 9.5 inches of new snow. Impact was snow removal of heavy wet snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 723087.