A severe squall line moved across southern Wisconsin from late evening on July 5th to the early morning hours on July 6th as a cold front approached. Tree damage from straight line winds was the main result.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
A severe squall line moved across southern Wisconsin from late evening on July 5th to the early morning hours on July 6th as a cold front approached. Tree damage from straight line winds was the main result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 9:43 PM CST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1043 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 .UPDATE... Line of strong to severe thunderstorms in SE MN and W Cntrl WI beginning to accelerate as the cold pool dynamics are coming into play. Storms now look to reach far nw Sauk Co. closer to 11 PM than 12 mid, with most hi-res models keeping the strongest segment of the line over South Central Wisconsin. Line looks to exit between 08Z and 09Z. North to south oriented portion of the line, with embedded mesos, is producing damaging wind and a few tornado reports. This segment is oriented perpendicular to 0-3km shear. Though the RAP 0-3km shear is only 10 knots ahead of the line, the surges are producing notches and brief tornado spin ups. Otherwise line has produced straight-line gusts up to 70 MPH. SPC has put out a watch that includes all of South Central and the western counties of Southeast Wisconsin until 10Z. Current timing keeps southern WI in a threat until between 08Z and 09Z. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... Will be watching how line of severe thunderstorms progresses to see what TAF sites may be most likely to see the damaging winds associated with the line. Most hi-res models keep the strongest segment of the line over South Central Wisconsin, but even the weakening segments will produce gusty winds as they move into southeast Wisconsin. VFR conditions until storms arrive, then mvfr cigs with brief IFR vsbys with storms along with wind gusts that could reach 50 knots or higher, especially in South Central Wisconsin. && .MARINE... Looking for thunderstorms with gusty winds to reach the nearshore zones between 230 AM and 3 AM. While wind gusts may not be at severe levels, expect gusts could reach 35 knots and require special marine warnings. Storms should clear the southern mid-lake region around 09Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016/ TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. The main focus is on a potential MCS rolling through the southern half of Wisconsin tonight. Currently, convection has initiated in west central Minnesota near a surface warm front and low pressure system. This warm front extends east to southeast across Minnesota down along the Mississippi River in western Wisconsin. This convection will propagate eastward along the front this evening and evolve into a mesoscale convective system by the time it reaches western Wisconsin. This system should keep its momentum going southeastward through southern Wisconsin due to a strengthening low level jet out ahead of it. Low level moisture transport will also be on the increase as a result. With the LLJ kicking in, the RAP shows some of the more unstable air mass advecting northward into southern Wisconsin ahead of the MCS which should also aid in maintaining the system through southern Wisconsin tonight. The upgrade by SPC certainly seems warranted, particularly for the southwestern portion of the state which will be along the better instability gradient. The main time for storms to be moving in will be around 11pm in southwestern Wisconsin to around 2am in far southeastern Wisconsin. Most of this timing is based upon when the transition to an MCS occurs and how fast it tracks to the southeast tonight. The experimental HRRR has been slowing the timing down though the tendency with these systems is to go faster than what the models produce. Regardless, the main time for this system appears to be in the late evening to overnight hours. Going into tomorrow, there should be some subsidence in the wake of the system to where there will be a dry period in the morning. Temperatures will be tricky tomorrow as well with any lingering cloud cover from the MCS could keep temps down a few degrees. There remains a chance for storms to develop in the afternoon along and north of the leftover boundary which should be in northern Illinois. I am not very confident in whether this will develop as the models could be overdoing instability locally. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium There could be a few storms Wednesday night, but it looks mainly dry between shortwaves. A better chance for storms will return Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system moves through. The details of this still look a bit muddled per model differences, but enough confidence to keep likely pops going in the evening and overnight. Still thinking a few strong to severe storms possible with this system, with SPC having a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms across most of the forecast area. The precip may wind down by daybreak Friday per latest guidance, though could see a shot of a few more storms in the afternoon as the final trough swings through. Model 925 mb temps suggest highs near to a few degrees above normal through Friday, depending on the timing of clouds/precip each day. Will probably also deal with onshore winds and cooler temps near Lake Michigan at times. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium High pressure is expected to be in place for the weekend, bringing dry weather and temperatures within a few degrees of normal. Milder temps and increasing moisture are expected early next week as the high exits to the east. Have some pops as early as Monday per the GFS solution which brings the moisture and instability back quicker. The ECMWF holds onto the high a bit longer and suggests dry weather until Tuesday. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... The main focus is on the chances for thunderstorms tonight. Straight line winds and heavy rainfall will be possible as the storms roll through later this evening and overnight. Brief drops to IFR will be possible along with winds over 35mph. Precipitation should clear out for a period in the morning before another round of showers/storms could develop tomorrow afternoon. MARINE... The main concern is with the potential for strong winds tonight as a line of thunderstorms moves through the region. Straightline winds of over 30 mph will be possible with the higher chances coming toward the Illinois border. Otherwise, winds will generally remain on the light side with more thunderstorm chances over the next few days. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Halbach Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...DDV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070400- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 1105 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE...WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXITING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION AND REPORTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. LMZ643>646-070400- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 1105 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL REACH LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. REM/WOOD WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:11 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fifteen to twenty trees or large branches down across the county.
Two trees down and a power line fire.
The Lone Rock airport ASOS gusted to 56 knots. Numerous trees were down in the village of Lone Rock.
Numerous trees and power lines down from the near west side of Madison to the near east side of Madison. A brick wall was destroyed from a fallen tree on the near west side.
Several trees uprooted or snapped off.
Numerous trees snapped about halfway up, though some broke near weak points.
Small trees snapped near the base of the tree.
Several large tree branches down.
Numerous trees down in Evansville.
Numerous large tree branches down on highway 138 just outside of Stoughton.
Many large tree branches down.
Numerous large tree branches down along highway 213 between Evansville and Orfordville.
A tree landed on a car.
Twelve inch diamter tree down. Other branches down in the area.
Large branches down at Skelly's farm market. 50 acres of corn leveled.
Many large tree branches down and damage to a tent gazebo.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 651917, 652184, 651918, 652186, 652191, 652196, 652189, 652190, 652192, 652204, 652193, 652195, 652207, 652209, 652211, 652208, 652212.