Through the day of the 5th, a warm front lifted through the region increasing temperatures and dew points, priming conditions for an impending cold front. That evening, as the low pressure center lifted into southern Minnesota, the trailing cold front entered the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Through the day of the 5th, a warm front lifted through the region increasing temperatures and dew points, priming conditions for an impending cold front. That evening, as the low pressure center lifted into southern Minnesota, the trailing cold front entered the state. It initiated storms across northeast Iowa that remained sub-severe while in the Des Moines WFO service area, as well as a series of storms in eastern Nebraska that eventually made their way across central Iowa. Those storms primarily produced damaging winds and severe wind gusts along with periods of heavy rainfall. After the initial cluster of storms moved through and weakened overnight, new development along the sagging cold front produced a morning round of damaging winds and heavy rainfall across southern and southeast Iowa. Lastly, during the afternoon, conditions were primed for possible funnel cloud/landspout development, and was seen in Tama County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 5:53 PM CST, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 653 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016 Focus for tonight will be on thunderstorm chances and severe weather chances this evening into the overnight hours. Large elongated area of low pressure situated to the west/northwest across central NE/SD/MN. A large amount of instability in place across the area, however low level lapse rates weak with large cap in place initially. Dewpoints have risen even higher across the state with some sites around 80 degrees, with the high surface moisture expected to continue to pool ahead of the storms this evening. A few light elevated showers/storms have tried to pop this afternoon, but cap is just too strong. Expect majority of activity later this evening. A cluster of storms has already developed across WC MN and another large storm across central SD. These storms continue to develop on the warm front, with further development expected later further SW along the sfc trough axis into NE. The storms in SD/NE are expected to connect and grow into a large MCS to move through the CWA this evening/tonight. Shear is decent, but not excessive and should sustain the severe threat especially along and north of HWY 20 where deep layer shear greater than 30kts. LLJ to become oriented into northern/central IA with additional development possible south and west of the main complex. PWATS currently around 1.7 inches and are expected to increase to around 2.0 inches late tonight as moisture transport becomes oriented directly into the state. The activity is expected to be progressive to the southeast, therefore the flash flood threat does appear to be limited. However some brief locally heavy rain is possible with the large amount of moisture available. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Tuesday/ Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016 Main forecast concern remained focused on convective potential Wednesday night and again Thursday into Thursday evening. Leaned toward the ECMWF for much of the forecast package as it continues to be consistent from run-to-run late this week and into the weekend. Wednesday into Thursday...Lingering pops across the south to southeast Wednesday morning with a diminishing MCS in this location. A break in the thunderstorm chances during the afternoon into the evening Wednesday before the next overnight convection develops by around 03z Thursday. ECMWF is slightly slower with the shortwave and has the strong forcing for ascent between 06-12z Thursday, while the GFS is roughly 3 hours sooner. Delayed onset of likely pops Wednesday night until after 06z Thursday, and could possibly go dry over at least the southeast during the evening tomorrow night. Again, northern Iowa looks to see the bulk of the precipitation in the location of the best moisture convergence. Main threat will be heavy rain with warm layer clouds depths around 14kft, PWATs 1.5 to near 2.0 inches, and fairly steep mid- level lapse rates. Severe threat remains minimal as the low level shear remains weak, even though deep layer shear looks viable for updraft sustainability. Plus with decent amount CAPE developing Wednesday, cannot rule out some elevated hail producers over western to northern portions of the forecast area. A potent 500mb trough and associated front will move across the state beginning late in the afternoon Thursday over the northwest and then pushes east-southeast Thursday evening. ECMWF is slightly further south with the QPF bullseye and the strongest forcing, but the NAM/GFS/ECMWF are in decent agreement with timing. Strong vort max and deepening low pressure throughout the day Thursday with potent 0-6km shear nearing 50 knots, 0-1km and 0-3km bulk shear in the 20-30 knot range, and a good amount of instability building ahead of the trough Thursday. Good veering in the forecast soundings Thursday afternoon into the evening with sickle-shape hodographs by 00z Friday per BUFR soundings at DSM to MCW. All modes of severe weather look possible and the Slight Risk has a good potential for an upgrade during future forecast updates. Thus, Thursday is shaping up to be one of the better widespread severe potentials that central Iowa has seen this convective season. Friday through Monday...leaned toward a drier forecast during this time frame with the ECMWF keeping the surface high pressure in control of the weather pattern. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the exception of periods late this evening and overnight as showers and thunderstorms progress south and east through primarily northern Iowa. Isolated storms may persist across southeast portions of Iowa into the day tomorrow. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Adair-Adams- Audubon-Cass-Clarke-Dallas-Decatur-Guthrie-Madison-Polk-Ringgold- Taylor-Union-Warren. && SHORT TERM...Beerends LONG TERM...Podrazik AVIATION...Skow
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 820 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 IAZ004>007-015>017-025>028-070130- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER- 820 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN A SECONDARY THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BETTER DEFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IAZ023-024-033>039-044>050-057>062-075-070130- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY- BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA- AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MAHASKA- 820 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BETTER DEFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IAZ070>074-081>086-092>097-070130- CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE- WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS- 820 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BETTER DEFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:55 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning, 1 heavy rain, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Crawford County dispatch reported power lines down. Time radar estimated.
Dow City Fire Chief reported several power lines down across town.
Tree damage reported at the Denison Airport along with pea sized hail. Wind speed estimated.
Public reported trees down all around town. Estimated 60-70 mph winds in the storm. Report came via social media and time radar estimated.
Sheriff reported half of the city of Carroll without power and numerous crews out clearing up to a foot diameter trees from roads in town along with power lines.
Trained spotter reported 65 mph wind gusts along with quarter sized hail.
Carroll Municipal Airport AWOS recorded 50 kt wind gust.
Home weather station recorded 62 mph wind gust.
Carroll Municipal Airport AWOS recorded 69 mph wind gust.
Iowa DOT RWIS station recorded a 59 mph wind gust.
Iowa DOT RWIS station recorded a 58 mph wind gust.
Emergency Manager reported 2 to 4 inch tree branches down, mainly on the north side of town. Time radar estimated.
Law Enforcement reported large tree branches down.
Emergency Manager reported a few 3 to 4 inch tree branches down. Report relayed from Law Enforcement.
Hardin County Sheriff reported 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts while driving through New Providence.
Fire department reported that a lightning strike caused a fire.
Trained spotter reported heavy rainfall of 1.10 inches since 8 am.
Trained spotter reported numerous branches down and an oak tree on a car. Delayed report and time radar estimated.
Law Enforcement reported power lines down in town.
Public reported funnel cloud, photographed about half way to the ground. Delayed report and location estimated by boundary location on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 641172, 641173, 641200, 641210, 641211, 641213, 641214, 641215, 641216, 641217, 641218, 641219, 641220, 641222, 641224, 641225, 641228, 641226, 641227, 641229.