A post-frontal Puget Sound convergence zone brought heavy snow to Stampede Pass.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
A post-frontal Puget Sound convergence zone brought heavy snow to Stampede Pass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 2:53 PM PST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
253 PM PST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will move east across the area
tonight through Thursday. Bands of showers will wrap around the
trough for the next couple of days, but showers will slowly
decrease in coverage with time. An upper level ridge will shift
onshore Thursday night and Friday bringing a brief spell of dry
weather. A series of systems will give periods of rain this
weekend through the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...An organized band of showers is moving onshore this
afternoon. This band will help to energize a convergence zone from
Snohomish and northern King counties into the Cascades as it moves
inland. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already seen with
the convergence zone in Snohomish county. The profiler on the
coast is showing a snow level of about 4000 feet with the incoming
band. While the snow level has been just above the road at Stevens
Pass today, expect snow levels to fall a bit this evening. Up to 4
inches may fall at pass level if the Convergence zone slides
southward a bit. Will maintain the winter weather advisory through
midnight tonight in the Cascades. Will also show a slight chance
of thunderstorms through this evening along the coast, in the
southern Cascades and foothills, and in the convergence zone area.
The 18Z models show a trough offshore that will slowly make its
way inland Wednesday through Thursday morning. Weak shortwaves
rotating around the trough will give showers to the coastal
waters and the Olympic Peninsula at times tonight through
Thursday. Shower chances will slowly wane over the interior with
time as the upper trough gradually weakens.
A building upper ridge along 130W on Thursday will move inland
late Thursday night into Friday. Friday will be a dry and somewhat
mild day across the region as low level flow turns offshore with
the passing upper ridge. Some fog can be expected in protected
valleys, particularly in the south interior zones, late Thursday
night into Friday morning.
Temperatures through Friday will average near to slightly above
normal for mid November. Albrecht
.LONG TERM...Models are showing rather good consistency and
continuity through early next week. They all develop a 530 or so
dam upper low near 46N 138W Friday night that will open up into an
upper trough along the coast late Sunday night. Another upper
trough will take the first one's place Tuesday over the offshore
waters. This pattern promises to bring moist southerly flow to the
area with temperatures 2-4 degrees above average for this time of
year. The forecast will show high pops with lows in the lower 40s
and highs in the lower to mid 50s through the period. Albrecht
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level trough is over Western Washington
tonight for moist and unstable conditions. The flow aloft is
southwesterly. Showers cover the region with a chance of
thunderstorms along the coast...and in the Puget Sound Convergence
zone over Snohomish/King counties. Cigs are mainly VFR. Expect
S/SW gusts to 25 kt coast and interior through this evening, then
winds easing. There will be patchy low clouds during the morning
hours with IFR to MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise, weak upper level
disturbances will bring scattered showers on Wednesday. 33
KSEA...Showers will remain in the vicinity this evening with MVFR
cigs possible. S/SW winds easing after midnight. 33
&&
.MARINE...Low level onshore flow will ease tonight. Meanwhile,
seas are still in the 10-13 ft range for the coastal waters and
the western Strait of Juan de Fuca - a Small Craft Advisory for
Hazardous Seas is in effect. A weak surface trough will linger
over the coastal waters Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger Pacific
system will approach the area on Friday with gales possible over
the coastal waters. This system will continue to spin offshore on
Saturday then shift N/NE into Vancouver Island on Sunday. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Cool and shower weather is expected to continue
through Thursday with drying Thursday night into Friday. This will
allow rivers across the region to slowly recede.
There will be a renewed threat of minor flooding next weekend or
early next week on the Skokomish River in Mason County as moist
southerly flow aloft develops.
USGS landslide indices are currently at the rainfall threshold
for the occurrence of shallow landslides. No significant
triggering rainfall is expected, but there is a chance of isolated
shallow slides. Albrecht
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Cascades
of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Olympics.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery
To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 PM PST Wednesday for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST Wednesday
for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
www.weather.gov/seattle
You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The Stevens Pass NWAC site recorded 11 inches of snow in a 9-hour period ending at 2 am Wed Nov 16. WashDOT reported 12 inches new snow to NWAC by phone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660409.