The worst drought conditions are ongoing since the last major drought in 2007. With no appreciable rainfall in sight, conditions will further deteriorate, with the dry conditions complicating several factors, mainly that of farming and water conservation in the near future.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HUN wrote it up.
The worst drought conditions are ongoing since the last major drought in 2007. With no appreciable rainfall in sight, conditions will further deteriorate, with the dry conditions complicating several factors, mainly that of farming and water conservation in the near future.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 11:02 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1102 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 855 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 00Z sounding and mesoanalysis showed that moisture in the 925mb to 850mb layer was pooling over AR, MO, and western TN ahead of an incoming cold front. Winds in this layer were mainly out of the W/SW and have pulled up some meager moisture. This was not the case though over the TN Valley with the latest BMX/OHX soundings continuing to show very dry air through the entire sounding. The regional radar shows some light showers developing in this better axis of moisture in NW TN/NE AR. Latest model guidance does try to advect some of that higher moisture into the area after 06Z tonight as the front moves closer. But think that the extent of the moisture suggested in forecast soundings for the TN Valley is a bit overdone. Latest HRRR, Experimental HRRR, NCAR Ensembles, and Hires ARW/NMM all match up pretty well with what is currently on radar to our NW. As the evening goes along they wash out/dissipate the light showers as the move closer to NW AL. While I think the forecast radar reflectivity via those models is a bit overdone it's hard to pull all PoPs from the forecast. So, have kept a very tiny sliver of 15 PoPs in NW AL. Expecting any showers that do hold together to mainly fall as Virga due to the continued dry air at the surface. Expect an increase in cloud cover as the front nears the region and have updated the timing. Probably will end up with a bit of a gradient in low temps tonight with NW AL remaining on the mild side (40s) due to clouds but the eastern half of the area colder (30s). The front should be completely through the area by mid to late morning. .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1253 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 The upper level trough axis and associated surface front will continue to push southeast through the Tennessee Valley through the morning hours on Tuesday. Models are in fairly good agreement that 850 mb and 700 mb RH values forecast mostly cloudy conditions continuing to overtake northern Alabama after daybreak and spreading east through the day. Moisture will continue to be meager at the surface, but a fairly amplified trough axis could produce some isolated showers as it passes through (mainly near the MS/AL border and in Franklin County, AL). This would amount to less than 1/10 of an inch at best and will provide no relief for our present drought conditions. Most of the cooler air behind the departing surface front will remain near and north of the Carolina. Therefore, although drier air will advect back into the area, temperatures even behind the front will not cool down much. However, cloud cover should keep highs slightly cooler than the day before, but not much (highs in the lower to mid 60s). Expect cloud cover to decrease markedly between 6 and 8 pm on Tuesday evening. Most models continue to quickly build a surface/upper ridge axis behind the front eastward toward the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should warm low level temperatures significantly and allow lows to warm into the mid 40s. Expect 925 mb temperatures to climb to between 14 and 16 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. Mixing up to this level should allow highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s, except in northeastern Alabama, which still may be experiencing neutral/slightly cold air advection via northwest flow. Return flow in the boundary layer and increasing southwest flow should help to bring more moisture in the area on Wednesday night. This should help warm lows back into the mid to upper 40s west of I-65. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 The familiar upper-level ridge pattern across the region will return as we head into the extended forecast as a trough swings through the SW U.S. Combined with southerly flow and mostly sunny skies, temps will be ~10 degrees above normal for the highs in the mid to upper 70s and for the lows on Thursday as temps dip into the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the trough lifts into the Midwest Thursday night, the ridge is pushed eastward. However, temps on Friday will still follow the mild trend of Thursday but 1-2 degrees cooler as cloud cover increases throughout the day ahead of the cold front. The ECMWF is still a little faster with the cold front than the GFS with the latest run. The front would move through starting ~06Z with the ECMWF or ~12Z with the GFS. While there is good shear present, 0-6km 30-40kts and 0-1km has ~20kts, kept the thunder out of the forecast on Friday night/Saturday. Soundings continue to have a lack of CAPE and the moisture profile is not very deep for the short time that it is present before tanking behind the cold front. Therefore, not expecting a lot of QPF with this system and no relief for the drought this week. Temps will drop behind the front, allowing for a cooler more Fall- like weekend. Saturday's highs will reach around 60 degrees and lows in the low/mid 30s. Northerly winds will allow Sunday to be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 50s and lows hovering at or just below freezing! As we head back into the work week, a ridge starts to build back in and temps warm up by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 An approaching system and front have generated a few showers over western TN. These formed in an area with a little better moisture and as the enter drier air over Alabama they should begin to dissipate. If they do make it into NW AL believe they will remain to the west of KMSL and may only end up as virga. Expect an increase in mid-level clouds as the front nears the area with CIGS at or above 5,000ft. Westerly/southwesterly winds will also increase between 08-10Z to around 5-7kts. The upper level system moves through the region by 16-18Z Tuesday and skies should begin to clear. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && NEAR TERM...Stumpf SHORT TERM...KTW LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1100 PM CST MON NOV 14 2016 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-151130- LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN- MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- 1100 PM CST MON NOV 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 70/DD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Franklin County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Colbert County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Lauderdale County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Lawrence County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Limestone County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Madison County.
Exceptional Drought (D4) Conditions introduced in Morgan County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 663422, 663424, 663425, 663426, 663427, 663428, 663429.