A secondary frontal boundary swept through portions of the Ohio Valley during the early morning hours of May 14th before it began to effect portions of Southwest Virginia through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of this boundary, surface winds picked up rather significantly, especially in areas east of the Blue Ridge where less subsidence was in place.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A secondary frontal boundary swept through portions of the Ohio Valley during the early morning hours of May 14th before it began to effect portions of Southwest Virginia through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of this boundary, surface winds picked up rather significantly, especially in areas east of the Blue Ridge where less subsidence was in place. This surge in wind gusts led to an isolated report of tree damage in Amherst County, Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:09 PM EST, 3 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening. Drier and colder high pressure will settle over the area on Sunday and continue into Monday. Expect a warm front to lift into the area on Tuesday with and stall overhead into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 pm EDT Saturday... A line of light to moderate showers continues progressing east across the region in advance of an approaching cold front. The leading edge of these showers was currently near a Dobson North Carolina to Appomattox Virginia line. The front was positioned from western Pennsylvania, southwest into central West Virginia, and then into eastern Tennessee. A narrow band of showers was also forming along the front itself, or just slightly ahead of it in places. By the time we get to the official start of the tonight part of the forecast, most of the precipitation will have either moved out of the region to the east, or be confined to some isolated to scattered upslope showers in the far west. Winds will remain gusty overnight. Expect a surge initially behind the cold front as it passes any particular location. Speeds will settle down a bit a short time thereafter. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common across the mountains this evening, but subside into the 15 to 25 mph range by late tonight. East of the Blue Ridge, 15 to 25 mph will be common early this evening, but then trend to gusts near 15 later tonight. The northwest winds will help maintain upslope cloud cover west of the Blue Ridge. East of the Blue Ridge, clouds will dissipate as drier works its way into the region and subsidence increases. The drier air will eventually lead to decreasing clouds across the mountains, but a partly cloudy sky is not expected a most locations until the late morning on Sunday. Notably colder air will rush into the area behind the front. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be some ten to fifteen degrees below normal. A forecast low of 36 at Bluefield West Virginia tonight would be a new record low temperature. Across the mountains low temperatures will be in the 30s with low to mid 40s east of the Blue Ridge. Reference the CLIMATE section of this discussion for additional details. We are expecting isolated rain showers across western Greenbrier County West Virginia this evening. As temperatures fall, look for some or all of these rain showers to transition to isolated light snow showers by early Sunday morning. Little or no accumulation is expected. On Sunday, no precipitation is forecast, and drier air will continue to work its way into the region. As mentioned above, little if any cloud cover is expected in the east during the course of the day. Across the mountains, a mostly cloudy to cloudy start of the day will trend to partly to mostly sunny by mid-day. The trend of temperatures ten to fifteen degrees below normal will continue. Expect highs in the 50s across the mountains with low to mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Closed 500 mb low moves northeast Sunday and Monday across New England with a second upper closed low over the Great Lakes by Monday night. Pattern over the Mid Atlantic region flattens once the lead upper low moves close to the New England coast. Sunday night surface high pressure moves east from the Tennessee Valley and will be overhead at 12Z Monday. Sunday night 850 mb temperatures already starting to moderate but will be near zero in the northern half of the forecast area at 12Z/8AM Monday. But with little cloud cover and winds expected to decouple in the evening, temperatures will drop off quickly with lows. Enough of the low level jet near the inversion level on Sunday night to keep up winds and mixing on the ridges. Low level winds back to the southwest on Monday afternoon as the high moves east and offshore by Monday night. Tuesday morning the Gulf is open with a direct flow of moisture into the region. Will start to see the return of mid and high clouds from the southwest through the day on Monday. It may take until Tuesday morning to saturate lower levels enough for widespread precipitation. Cold front approaching from the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday night will add to low level convergence and lift. Models differ on the placement of the front, with the 12Z GFS being farther north than the NAM with the front, and the unstable air south of the boundary on Tuesday afternoon. Clouds and precipitation will also limit instability and temperature rise on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Baroclinic zone and moisture shifts south on Wednesday night and Thursday. Surface high pressure moves east across the northeast United States. ECMWF suggesting that enough dry air moves in that even low level dry out. Will be on the north side of the boundary but sunshine will offset cooler airmass. Will limit any probability of precipitation to slight chance of less for Wednesday night and Thursday. Better flow of deeper moisture returns into the region on Friday and Saturday as 850 mb winds increase from the south and southeast. Surface low pressure tracking from the Plains into the Tennessee Valley will provide synoptic scale lift. Models were showing some difference with how far south the track of this system would be. WPC was favoring a more southern path. Wedge pattern at the surface will keep temperatures Friday night and Saturday on the cool side of guidance. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 pm EDT Saturday... A cold front was approaching the area from the west...currently extending from western Pennsylvania to eastern Kentucky. An area of showers was ahead of the front producing light to moderate rainfall. Most conditions within this area of precipitation remained VFR. However, pockets of MVFR cigs and isolated, brief IFR/MVFR vsbys were noted as well. No thunder is occurring yet, however isolated to scattered coverage is expected later this afternoon, mainly along and east of a KLYH-KDAN line. 850 mb winds will continue in the 30 to 35 kt range behind the front. Surface gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range are still expected, but these will decrease a bit as we head into the overnight hours. A bit of an increase is expected by late morning Sunday. Overnight, cloud cover will be limited mainly to regions along and west of the crest of the Blue Ridge. The northwest flow will yield subsidence across the piedmont and erode the cloud cover. The clouds across the mountains will be a mix of MVFR and low end VFR through the night. As drier air continues to spill into the region overnight into Sunday, the cloud cover will gradually erode from east to west. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR conditions and decreasing winds speeds are expected Saturday afternoon through Monday. Monday remains VFR with moisture gradually returning to the area on increasing southwest winds. Monday night into Tuesday night, a warm front develops and lifts across the region bringing increasing chance of rain and better chances for sub-VFR conditions. Wednesday into Thursday, high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley all while the warm front sinks into the deep south as a cold front. Precipitation chances will be decreasing across the area along with improving flight conditions. && .CLIMATE... As of 1150 am EDT Friday... Bluefield Record Low Temperature May 15 39 in 2002 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS CLIMATE...DS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022-023-032>034-043>047-058-059- 152030- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE- BOTETOURT-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ007-010-011-018>020-024-035-WVZ042>044-152030- TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST- MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED ELEVATED VALLEYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WVZ507-508-152030- EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Non-Thunderstorm winds brought down a 16 inch diameter tree near the Pedlar River Dam Reservoir. Time estimated by the observer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 635921.