The remnants of a thunderstorm complex moved southeast from the Plains into North Texas overnight Friday Night. Storms were sub-severe, but created some problems with added minor flooding across the area Saturday Morning.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
The remnants of a thunderstorm complex moved southeast from the Plains into North Texas overnight Friday Night. Storms were sub-severe, but created some problems with added minor flooding across the area Saturday Morning. One person drowned in the flooded Pecan Creek in Denton County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:46 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... At 330 AM, the cold front was approaching the Red River and should cross into Texas within the hour. One cluster of thunderstorms was moving south ahead of the front across Montague and Cooke counties. Another cluster of storms was affecting our southwestern counties, moving southeast. This cluster of storms was remnant from earlier convection this evening and will continue to weaken as it moves southeast this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms may form near the leading edge of the front this morning as it moves south through North and Central Texas. By midday, the front is expected to be very near our southern border with most, if not all, of any precipitation south of our CWA. The front will have a noticeable impact on temperatures today with highs ranging from the mid 60s near the Red River to the lower 80s in our southeastern counties. The winds behind the front will average 10-20 mph and cloud cover will persist today making it feel slightly cooler than the ambient temperature. With an active weather pattern expected for the next week, daytime temperatures the next 6-7 days will remain below normal for this time of year due to cloud cover and almost daily rain chances. Most of the region is expected to stay dry tonight but a few showers may creep into our southern counties on the north side of the front and/or into our western counties as a few weak disturbances cross the state. We may see an increase in showers and thunderstorms across our western counties Sunday afternoon as a stronger disturbance crosses the state. Rain chances increase considerably Sunday evening and night as the disturbance crosses North and Central Texas and isentropic lift increases over the region. Also on Sunday and Sunday night, a warm front will be lifting north across the region which will provide some added lift. Forecast soundings indicate small amounts of tall/skinny CAPE across the region. Severe weather is not expected but small hail may occur in stronger storms. The rain is expected to end from west to east late Sunday night and Monday morning as the disturbance moves east and the warm front and best isentropic lift moves north, too. Weak upper level ridging will likely occur over the region on Monday in advance of an upper level trough moving into the southwestern CONUS. The dryline will sharpen across West Texas during the day. All of the models have different positions of the dryline on Monday but most keep the dryline well west of the region in West Texas. If convection develops along the dryline, it should not impact our area but will keep low pops in our western counties to account for differences between the models in the location of the dryline. If there is a shift in the models with regard to the location of the dryline and the upper level forcing, storms in our area could be severe due to increasing instability and bulk shear values, but again the chance for storms Monday afternoon/evening is low at this time. Beyond Monday, continued discrepancies between the models lends to low confidence in the extended portion of the forecast. Another front is expected to arrive Tuesday per the ECMWF or Tuesday night/Wednesday per the GFS and Canadian. This front is expected to bring more rain chances to the region with possibly a threat for severe storms. Forecast details are too muddled right now to confidently make a prediction on the severe weather risk Tuesday and Wednesday but we will be monitoring that time period for its potential threat. Rain chances will continue in the forecast through the end of the week until the upper level trough in the southwest finally moves across the Plains. JLDunn && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ concerns....possible overnight/early morning thunderstorms for the metroplex. timing of the cold front. the main area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move south mainly across west texas. an area of showers and thunderstorms between kokc and kfdr at 0430z will move south southeast and may affect the metroplex taf sites 09-12z. the cold front that extended south of a kokc to kcds to ktcc line at 04z should reach the metroplex toward 12z and waco around 15z. southeast winds at less than 10 knots will shift to the north at around 10 knots with frontal passage. although not mentioned in the tafs...there will be a low chance of showers/thunderstorms behind the front during the morning in the metroplex and rain chances will end along and north of the i-20 corridor by 17z saturday. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 55 70 62 78 / 30 10 30 60 30 Waco 77 56 75 65 80 / 40 20 30 60 30 Paris 70 53 67 55 73 / 20 10 30 60 50 Denton 68 52 68 60 76 / 20 10 30 60 30 McKinney 70 52 69 60 77 / 20 10 30 60 40 Dallas 72 55 71 62 78 / 30 10 30 60 40 Terrell 73 55 73 62 78 / 30 10 30 60 40 Corsicana 77 58 76 65 78 / 40 20 30 60 40 Temple 80 59 77 65 79 / 40 20 30 60 30 Mineral Wells 69 52 68 61 79 / 30 20 40 60 30 && .FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && 14/82
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 420 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150930- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 420 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...YET THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. FOX
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016
TXZ115-129-140600-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN
STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...
AT 1216 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MORAN...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTLAND...CISCO...RANGER...GUNSIGHT...CARBON AND I-20 NEAR THE
CALLAHAN-EASTLAND COUNTY LINE.
LAT...LON 3245 9912 3251 9911 3252 9910 3279 9909
3250 9858 3217 9875 3208 9911 3211 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 317DEG 38KT 3256 9917
14The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two homeless people were swept into a canal near Bell Place and McKinney Street around 5 AM Saturday May 14. A female adult was rescued about half a mile downstream. A male was found deceased another half a mile or so downstream near S Loop 288 and Shady Oaks at 10 AM.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Denton | 2016-05-14 | 53 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 640312.