A well developed shortwave trough triggered scattered thunderstorms early this morning from the South Plains into the Rolling Plains. One of these storms produced a downburst near Northfield in far northeast Motley County.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A well developed shortwave trough triggered scattered thunderstorms early this morning from the South Plains into the Rolling Plains. One of these storms produced a downburst near Northfield in far northeast Motley County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 10:35 PM CST, 4 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1135 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 .AVIATION... Upper disturbance may trigger a few storms overnight mainly north of KLBB. May come close to KPVW after 06z but coverage and confidence not high enough for inclusion at this time in TAF. That activity could be in vicnity of KCDS around/after 09z but for same reason, not including in TAF. Light SE winds become moderate by 15-16z at all TAF sites as stronger winds mix down with heating. Could see isold/scattered storms again tomorrow mainly along/east of Plainview to Lubbock line with another disturbance interacting with hot and moist, unstable airmass. As mentioned earlier, density altitude will be high, likely near 7000 feet during afternoon hours at KPVW and KLBB. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/ SHORT TERM... The latest indications have trended toward a lesser threat of storms across the far Southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. The closest shortwave is now exiting the eastern Panhandle with slightly rising heights and weakening mid- level flow across the area. Hi-res guidance still suggests some storm development in the next hour or two, but with less coverage and intensity than previously indicated. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a few strong or briefly severe storms this evening. Back to the west, we have already seen a couple of t-storm cells develop in the hot and well-mixed air mass near the state line, along a north-south zone of weak convergence. Additional development is ongoing across central New Mexico, associated with a compact shortwave. As this shortwave moves closer to West Texas later this evening, we expect at least isolated t-storm activity to move into the western South Plains. At this time, it does appear the activity will remain disorganized and spotty, but it could linger past midnight, especially across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains. Strong wind gusts will be a threat with this activity. The other concern is the heat. Temps are expected to warm a few degrees tomorrow over what is already a hot Independence Day. The record high at Lubbock for July 5th is 104F set in 1971, and we are forecasting a high of 103F. We have two areas of concern for possibly reaching heat advisory criteria. The first is the southwest South Plains where we are forecasting highs of 103 to 104 degrees, just shy of the 105 degree advisory criteria. The other is in the Low Rolling Plains (centered around Cottle, King and Stonewall Counties) where we have max heat indices forecast to be around 107 - not far from the heat index criteria of 110 degrees for the Rolling Plains. No highlights will be issued with the afternoon forecast, but it looks to be a little hotter in later guidance then a heat advisory is possible. LONG TERM... An elongated upper level anti-cyclone will remain centered to our south mid to late week with generally dry and hot west to southwest flow aloft through our area. At least one significant disturbance will eject near the U.S. and Canada border late Thursday which should tighten surface troughing a bit. Trends continue to support high temperatures generally in the 100 to 105 degree range through Thursday. Moisture will be somewhat limited, but will still be adequate especially for the eastern half of our area for consideration of very high-based late day thunderstorms. And even to the west, with very deep mixing into the hot air, it's difficult to completely rule out a few isolated and brief very high-based thunderstorms, but we are not overly excited about these at this point. The strong heating and weak surface convergence within a surface trough will be main contributing factors favoring central to eastern area. Actual convective initiation will remain quite tricky through at least Thursday. For these later periods, a blend remains our best solution showing these low thunder chances favored. The deep mixing will promote lower dewpoints each afternoon, and low enough especially on the Caprock to contribute negatively to the Apparent Temperature. We expect to remain below Heat Advisory levels through Thursday. By Friday it's still not crystal clear how the upper pattern will evolve, but it appears at least a portion of the upper ridge will shift to the east as stronger southwest flow aloft bears down on the northwest coast. Also expect still to see another part of the upper ridge just back to our west. In between, there will be opportunity to exploit a weakness in the upper height field across our area and probably an intrusion of modest mid level monsoonal moisture from the south-southwest. We still will be fighting with some convection initiation uncertainties, but the lower heights and improved moisture should contribute favorably. This continues to support at least a low thunder chance for much of the area Friday through the next Weekend. And high temperatures at least are expected to tail off back to the 90's. This will still be above normal, but also with more consistent elevated dewpoints, so overall not a lot of improvement in comfort levels. However, our forecast Apparent Temperatures remain shy of Heat Advisory levels. Ejection of a strong Pacific wave is possible through the northern Rockies late next weekend. Solutions better in agreement on this and pulling higher upper level heights across our area early next week. This would support generally dry and warmer or hotter again. RMcQueen && .LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && 06
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 314 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 TXZ021>044-052015- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 314 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. FARTHER WEST, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH- BASED STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 101 ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 106 DEGREES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 TXZ021>044-051100- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...FARWELL...DIMMITT... HART...TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS... MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...CEDAR HILL... MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...HACKBERRY...MORTON... LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...RALLS...CROSBYTON...LORENZO...SPUR... DICKENS...DUMONT...FINNEY...GROW...GUTHRIE...DENVER CITY... PLAINS...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...ODONNELL...GRAHAM...POST... JAYTON...ASPERMONT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016 ...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY... A STRENGTHENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 100 TO 105 ON THE CAPROCK EACH AFTERNOON...AND ABOUT 101 TO 106 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY REACH 107 OR 108. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR THE DATES AT LUBBOCK. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. PEOPLE WHO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT STRESS OR HEAT ILLNESS. PETS CAN ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE HOT TEMPERATURES. ENSURE PETS HAVE ADEQUATE DRINKING WATER AND A SHADY PLACE TO REST. LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN A HOT CAR...EVEN FOR A FEW MINUTES. THE TEMPERATURE IN A CAR CAN RISE TO DEADLY LEVELS IN JUST MINUTES!!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
111 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
TXZ029-030-050645-
HALE TX-FLOYD TX-
111 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND NORTHERN
HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...
AT 110 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HALE CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVIEW...HALE CENTER...AIKEN...HALFWAY AND SETH WARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3415 10142 3402 10190 3419 10199 3431 10173
3431 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 246DEG 29KT 3414 10186
JORDANThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:54 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station located near Northfield.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 634046.