Damaging Wind in Texas, April 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
823 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch #78 and
expire the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Dewpoints across the far northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains this evening have dropped into the 30s, and given
the strongest convection looks to be trending north, have gone
ahead and canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Dawson,
Borden, and Scurry counties. There could still be some showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the area this evening, which will
shift to the east overnight, though severe weather is not
currently anticipated.

The Red Flag Warning that was in effect for locations along and
south of I-10 has also been allowed to expire, with a loss of
daytime heating and expected recovery in RH values.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 717 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated grids for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory, and also increased PoPs across the Davis Mountains and
Trans Pecos through this evening based on current radar trends.

DISCUSSION...

Wind speeds have decreased below High Wind Warning criteria
across the Guadalupe Mountains, and below Wind Advisory criteria
across the Van Horn/Highway 54 Corridor, the Marfa Plateau, and
the Davis Mountains. Thus, the aforementioned Warning and Advisory
have been allowed to expire.

Current radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms developing
over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau,
moving northeastward across the Trans Pecos. Have increased PoPs
across these areas through this evening, though current
expectation is for the coverage and intensity of convection to
gradually decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Stronger
storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty wind, and
perhaps some small hail, generally along and south of the Pecos
River.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty SW sfc flow will
ebb after sunset, but pick up again shortly after sunrise Monday,
then begin veering during the afternoon as a cold front
approaches. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps will be
reached INVOF KHOB, spawning a cu field w/base ~ 8 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to include mention of severe thunderstorms across
far northeastern counties this afternoon and evening, and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #78.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have begun to develop to the north of the forecast
area this afternoon, and given ample instability (around 1500
J/kg) across the far northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains and increasing lapse rates progged through this
evening, isolated thunderstorms (some severe) are possible, mainly
across Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. However, given a current lack
of a surface forcing mechanism, any convection that develops would
likely form along a southward-propagating outflow boundary from
convection to the north. Primary threats with storms that develop
will be large hail and strong winds, as well as locally heavy
rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Active pattern with several chances of rain this week. A cut off
low near baja this morning will open up as it swings east today
passing over NM tonight. Then another upper low off the CA coast
Monday will move along the US/Mex border reaching NM Tuesday. A
third and stronger upper low will move down off the NW coast
Thursday reaching the 4 corners region by early Saturday. These
lows may result in rain for the area.

Have a surface trough across the area today with dry conditions to
the west. A Pacific front will overtake the trough and blow
through with a west wind sweeping moisture out of the area. As of
18z still have good low level moisture over the east with dewpts
in the 50s and lower 60s but drier air pushing in from the west
with dewpts in the 20s. A cold front moves through late Monday
with Tuesday being the coolest day of the week with highs in the
60s. Beginning Wednesday temps warm through the end of the week.

Rain chances today limited to the east... have already had some
showers and storms pop up before noon over portions of SE NM and
NW Permian Basin. Have more rain chances later this week.
Nothing in the forecast for Monday but storms return to the
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday... and make a brief appearance late
in the week.

It has been windy today... a High Wind Warning is in effect for
the Guadalupes and a Wind Advisory southward across the Davis
Mtns and Marfa Plateau. Will leave these in effect as speeds may
increase the last few hours of the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing and spreading
rapidly east this afternoon across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas behind a dryline. Will continue however to confine the Red
Flag Warning to the lower Trans Pecos region and Big Bend due to
the absence of recent rainfall and drier fuels in these areas.
Conditions will improve areawide this evening as winds decrease
and rh/s increase due to nocturnal cooling. Overnight recovery is
expected to be generally fair.

Breezy west to northwest winds will develop again by Monday
afternoon behind a weak cold front. Due to cooler temperatures,
min rh/s are expected to generally remain above 15 percent
areawide so will not issue a Fire Weather Watch but a Fire Danger
Statement would likely be needed.

A cold front will move south into the southeast New Mexico Plains
and northwest Permian Basin late Monday afternoon and bring an
abrupt wind shift to the north and northeast. These winds will
spread south over the rest of the area Monday night and bring
cooler temperatures and generally good rh recovery Tuesday
morning.

Fire weather concerns should return to low on Tuesday as winds
decrease further and min rh/s increase with low level easterly flow
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  77  44  66 /  20   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       52  77  45  65 /  10   0  10  30
Dryden                         60  86  54  74 /  30   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  54  78  47  69 /  20   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 45  69  42  60 /  10   0  10  40
Hobbs                          50  74  42  64 /  10   0  10  20
Marfa                          44  72  39  68 /  20   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           55  78  45  67 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                         56  78  46  68 /  20   0  10  20
Wink                           53  80  47  70 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
831 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-120145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
831 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 /731 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS TO THE BIG BEND
AREA. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT TO THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WARM, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND