Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, April 10 to 11, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Seeing quite a variation in temperatures in and near the forecast
area this afternoon. Over southeast Kansas temperatures have risen
into the lower/mid 80s ahead of the approaching dry line east of
Wichita and the associated cold front extending east northeast
from the dryline toward the south side of KC. Persistent cloud
cover has held temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s over much the
MO Ozarks. Dewpoint temperatures have crept up into the mid 50s to
lower 60s over southwest MO/southeast KS.

Expect storms to develop over southeast Kansas late this
afternoon along the dryline or thermal boundary from clouds along
the KS/MO border. LAPS data still indicates some convective
inhibition but with temperatures getting so warm, don't think it
will be too long before capping inversion breaks. NAM BUFR
hodograph remains curved through the evening and with low level
jet coming into play, see some potential for rotating storms so
included limited tornado threat to HWO for this evening, mainly
west of 65. Overall instability will decrease as storms move
eastward. However with the front lining up parallel to upper flow
we could see some training effects and localized flooding late
tonight and early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

Another Canadian High building southward into the forecast area
will drop temperatures into the mid 30s Monday night. Model trends
have been a little warmer this run so do not plan on putting any
freeze headlines out with this package.

Another upper trough moves to the south of the Ozarks on
Wednesday. Latest model guidance keeps precipitation south of our
area but will need to monitor this feature for potential precip
addition to our southern counties.

Otherwise we will see mainly dry conditions and a warming trend
through mid/late week with upper level ridging over the central
US in response to digging upper trough over the western CONUS.
This system is expected to affect the region either late Saturday
or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist through early afternoon across all the
TAF sites as a strong low level jet continues to bring moisture
into the area. Ceilings should improve and scatter into VFR late
this afternoon. This will be brief however as showers and
thunderstorms will develop to the northwest of JLN and SGF and
push into the area late this evening into the overnight hours.
Confidence is somewhat low on the timing of thunder but it does
look like near 00z in JLN and closer to 03z at SGF. BBG may be
closer to 05z for thunder. Severe thunderstorms are possible with
this activity at the TAF sites. Ceilings and vis will both drop
in thunderstorms. IFR conditions are expected tomorrow morning at
all three sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Burchfield

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-112045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
336 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO OVER 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TO
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE TO VERSAILLES...FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

AS THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS FOR
 LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO ASH GROVE TO
 CASSVILLE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR
 LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A SALEM TO BRANSON LINE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY