Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of November and fueled the spread of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of November and fueled the spread of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions. Dry conditions negatively impacted pastures, triggering more feeding of hay, and causing concern for hay shortages for the winter months. The drought caused river and lake levels to be at low levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 22, 5:19 AM CST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 519 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 .UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/ Light easterly winds and thickening high clouds were providing for a milder night along and west of the Mississippi River this hour. Current temperatures were in the upper 30s...to low 40s. Farther east better radiational cooling and generally calm winds were providing for another round of subfreezing readings. For today and tomorrow...an upper level shortwave seen now exiting the front range of the Southern Rockies will lift northeast into the mid Mississippi valley by late tomorrow. On the surface models agree that a near 1000mb low pressure centered in southeast Colorado will fill 15mb over the next 36 hours as it lifts into Illinois. Deeper moisture out ahead of the low and weakening cold front will move slide into the Midsouth today...with precipitation breaking out this evening in the west...reaching the far eastern counties after sunrise tomorrow. Delayed this onset as forecast Skewt's show a deep dry layer below 500mb extending over much of the area. Thunderstorm coverage doesn't appear to be widespread based off of poor lapse rates and an overall weakening of the system...so have kept them isolated and embedded. High temperatures both days should top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The only other concern today is fire weather. RH's will remain low with readings dipping below 30 percent. Winds won't be a factor for Red Flag conditions/headlines...but the low RH and continuing fuel moistures will provide for an elevated fire danger. Thursday through Saturday...the combination of higher surface pressure and a series of low amplitude ridge and trough couplets aloft will keep the Midsouth dry this period...with only a few passing clouds associated with a dry frontal passage early Friday. Lows will generally be above freezing...with above normal highs. Sunday through next Tuesday...the GFS and ECWMF show a much deeper longwave trough getting carved out across the Southern Rockies and Plains...a definite pattern change. The initial stronger southwest flow aloft will provide for deeper surface lows and a stronger boundary layer gradient. In addition higher rainfall amounts and potentially a window or two for severe weather also exists. For now timing differences between models are making it to vague for anything specific. The much needed prolonged heavier period of precipitation would put a significant dent in the drought. Overall temperatures this period will remain above normal. JAB && .AVIATION...12z TAF Cycle South winds will strengthen today up to around 10kt at JBR and MEM with gusts in the upper teens. Wind should be slightly weaker at MKL and TUP. Cigs should remain VFR...although get progressive lower with time. Rain showers will approach from the west overnight. Thunderstorms may accompany showers...and will be most likely toward morning. Will carry VCSH for now with the intent of adding prevailing rain when we see development on radar and have a better idea at arrival times. 30 && MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 309 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231115- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 309 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH DUE TO DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JAB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed across the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 667111, 667112.