The combination of summer heating and high low level moisture content provided the necessary conditions to create a highly unstable environment across the Southern Appalachian region. The instability and more than adequate upper level west to northwesterly flow allowed an mesoscale convective system to remain quite strong as it moved east across the area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
The combination of summer heating and high low level moisture content provided the necessary conditions to create a highly unstable environment across the Southern Appalachian region. The instability and more than adequate upper level west to northwesterly flow allowed an mesoscale convective system to remain quite strong as it moved east across the area. Downburst winds in some areas were in the 60 to 70 mile an hour range with speeds as high as 80 miles an hour estimated. Trees were downed across a broad area and resulted in the deaths of three people.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 1:01 PM EST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 201 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Saturday)... Showers and storms are beginning to form to the north and west as a boundary from earlier convection moves into the Plateau counties. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a weak shortwave trough moving eastward across Kentucky and Tennessee. At the surface, a low pressure center is well to the north across the Great Lakes with a cold front stretching down from this low into the Southern Plains. Temperatures late this morning and early afternoon have warmed quickly into the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This combination has produced SBCAPE values in the 2500-4000 J/Kg range with the higher numbers presently across the Plateau counties. The weak shortwave trough has increased the deep layer shear some into the 25-35 kt range. PW values remain elevated across the region with readings ranging from around 1.8-2.0 inches. There is also some mid-level dry air in the soundings that will increase downdraft velocities. Overall, expect severe storms to develop over the next couple of hours in the extremely unstable airmass over the area. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds, localized flash flooding and hail up to size of quarters. Again considered going with a flash flood watch but 3-hr flash flood guidance is still around 2-3 inches areawide. The storms should move at a decent pace with mid- level winds in the 30-40 kt range. In addition, expect most of the activity will come to an end around 00z. Regardless, some localized flooding and a couple of flash flooding warning are not out of the question. Still some question regarding PoPs tonight. Some of the models bring in the area of showers and storms currently back across Arkansas and Oklahoma late tonight. Kept at least some mention of PoPs in the forecast to account for this. Regardless, do not expect anything strong or severe with the precip. potential overnight. On Saturday, the upper level trough across the Great Lakes will push further to the southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. The cold front will sink south into northern portions of the forecast area with drier air moving in with PW values dropping down into the 1.0-1.2 inch range across northern portions of the area. PW values will still remain in the 1.7-1.9 inch range across southern portions of the area with a moisture gradient along the front. SBCAPE values will range from a more reasonable 1000-2000 J/Kg with deep layer shear around 10 kts. Therefore, just expect a few scattered storms along and south of the frontal boundary on Saturday with very small chances for a stronger storm or two. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)... Models are having some trouble agreeing on the movement of a midlevel low that is located over West TN/E AR at the start of this period. The NAM drifts it slowly NE through Monday, the ECMWF takes it east into SW VA by 00Z Tue, and the GFS moves it SE into AL by Sunday night before moving it N into Middle TN on Monday. With this uncertainty, will keep POPs in the chance range for the next few days. Southern portions of the area will continue to be favored for mainly diurnally-based thunderstorms on Sunday due to the presence of a boundary and higher theta-e air in that area. High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and some lower surface dewpoints should help keep northern sections mainly dry. Model PW depictions show a good gradient across the area from N to S. This starts to change on Monday as the high shifts east and the midlevel low to our west makes slight eastward progress, spreading moisture and instability farther north. Finer details will depend on the track of the midlevel low, but the entire area should have at least scattered convection by Monday afternoon. For Tuesday through Friday, the general pattern will be a broad trough across the Great Lakes and New England, with a large ridge over FL and the Bahamas. Weak disturbances at the base of the trough will enhance thunderstorm chances at times, but the precision of models to depict them accurately this far out is doubtful. Will lean the forecast toward diurnally-based scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions currently across the terminals with scattered showers and storms developing to the west. VCTS is expected for much of the afternoon at KTYS and KTRI. Confidence is less further south at KCHA and have not mentioned VCTS at this time but may need to make amendments later. The storms at KTYS and KTRI will reduce visibilities down to IFR at times with strong wind gusts. Timing remains uncertain and have not included any tempo groups at this time for TSRA but again will make amendments when necessary. Activity will decrease in coverage near sunset with IFR ceilings moving in at KTRI near sunrise. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && MA/DGS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 222 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-091830- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 222 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 /122 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST INTO EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE AIR-MASS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH 8 PM EDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016
VAZ002-082115-
WISE VA-
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...
AT 435 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BELLCRAFT...OR OVER WHITESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POUND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.
LAT...LON 3713 8255 3707 8250 3703 8248 3703 8247
3699 8242 3703 8276 3705 8272 3712 8272
3715 8264 3720 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 272DEG 28KT 3714 8283
05/MAThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:58 UTC.
35 thunderstorm wind, 4 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were reported down one mile northeast of Clairfield.
Several trees and power lines were reported down along Blades Road one mile northeast of Clairfield.
Several trees were downed in Harrogate-Shawanee.
Several trees and power lines were downed along Glades Road seven miles west of Sunbright.
A few trees were downed in Tazewell.
A few trees were reported down five miles south southeast of Ewing.
Numerous trees were downed and a few structures roofs were damaged three miles west northwest of Kyles Ford.
Several trees were downed along highway 62 two miles south of Petros in the Joyner community.
Numerous trees were reported down in Rogersville.
Numerous trees were reported down in Surgoinsville.
Quarter sized hail was reported six miles east of Bean Station at the Davy Crockett Campground.
One tree was reported down in the eastern part of Oak Ridge.
Quarter sized hail was reported at Pigeon Forge.
Ping pong ball sized hail was reported at Pigeon Forge.
One mile west of Powell, a large tree was downed blocking Emory Road. The tree also downed nearby power lines.
Several trees were downed along Crystal Springs Road in Gray.
A 62 mph gust was measured at the Tri-Cities airport.
Several trees were reported down in Church Hill.
One tree was reported down in Farragut.
Numerous trees were reported down across the county.
A roof was partially removed from a home at Camelot Circle in Johnson City.
A married couple was killed by a falling tree at their campsite near the south shore of Watauga Lake. They were beside their tent under an awning they had arranged. Numerous trees were downed in the area. Victims included a male aged 60 and a female aged 47.
A 66 year old female was killed by a falling tree outside of her residence in West Knoxville. Numerous trees were downed in the area by the thunderstorm winds.
A 62 mph wind gust was recorded on a Davis wind sensor. Several trees were downed in the area along with widespread power outages.
Numerous trees were downed three miles west of Walland.
A 63 mph gust was recorded at McGhee Tyson airport.
Quarter sized hail was reported at Loudon.
Numerous trees were reported down in the Greenback area.
Numerous trees were reported down through the Great Smoky Mountain National Park.|A few trees damaged cars and campers as they fell.
Numerous trees were reported down in Seymour. A few homes suffered minor structural damage while the roof was removed from the Dollar General Store on highway 441.
A few trees were reported down one mile north of Tellico Plains.
Several trees were reported down near Turtletown.
Several trees were reported down across the southern part of the county.
Several trees were reported down in Whitwell and vicinity.
Several trees were reported down in the Whitwell area.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down across Chattanooga.
A tree destroyed a trailer as it was downed at 645 Old Chattanooga Pike Southwest.
Numerous trees and power lines were reported down across the southern part of the county.
A few trees were reported down in the Oldfort community.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Carter | 2016-07-08 | 60 | Male | Camping | Direct |
| Thunderstorm Wind, Carter | 2016-07-08 | 47 | Female | Camping | Direct |
| Thunderstorm Wind, Knox | 2016-07-08 | 66 | Female | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 635187, 635191, 635193, 635195, 635197, 635204, 635205, 635206, 635207, 635208, 635209, 635210, 635211, 635212, 635230, 635232, 635235, 635240, 635243, 635245, 635248, 635264, 635269, 635272, 635274, 635281, 635284, 635287, 635292, 635296, 635299, 635303, 635301, 635304, 635308, 635309, 635311, 635312, 635314.