Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved across eastern Kentucky between this morning and early evening. As a complex of storms moved east through central portions of Kentucky during the late morning and early afternoon hours, increasing moisture and daytime heating along with abundant lift present with this complex contributed to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved across eastern Kentucky between this morning and early evening. As a complex of storms moved east through central portions of Kentucky during the late morning and early afternoon hours, increasing moisture and daytime heating along with abundant lift present with this complex contributed to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Many locations received an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall on top of scattered rainfall over the past few days. With moist soil in place, much of this rainfall was converted to runoff and subsequently led to several instances of flash flooding across eastern Kentucky. Several reports of wind damage were also received in terms of downed trees as these rounds of storms moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 9:33 AM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Complex of storms continues to propagate east toward central Kentucky with additional showers/storms ongoing across northeast Kentucky along a moisture gradient in the vicinity of steeper mid level lapse rates. Partial clearing between these two features across central Kentucky will allow for a period of diurnal heating this morning, perhaps allowing storms to eventually build somewhat south of Mountain Parkway. Given the brunt of storms late this morning into early this afternoon expected to reside near/north of Mountain Parkway before moving east in conjunction with greater moisture advection, have expanded the flash flood watch to encompass Powell through Elliott Counties as well as south and east through Martin, Pike, and Letcher Counties through this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A boundary, more or less a warm front lingers from southern IL east into Central KY and then arcs southeast toward sw VA and Eastern TN. This boundary generally coincides with the leading edge of the theta e gradient and a gradient in PW exists. PW has already increased overnight from closer to 1.5 inches to nearer to 1.75 inches in the central CWA and nearing 2 inches in the southwest CWA in the zonal flow in place across the conus. Within this flow is a shortwave trough extending from the western great Lakes/Upper MS Valley south toward eastern KS and western MO. Other minor disturbances are also moving through the flow some of them associated with ongoing or past convection. As the moisture continues to be transported into the region, showers and a few thunderstorms have moved across the area overnight though as the PW gradient has lessened precipitation has been more isolated and lighter and showery in nature. This also corresponds with a departing disturbance extending from the lakes into the middle OH Valley region. Diffluent flow aloft, continued moisture transport into the region along with steeper mid level lapse rates are advancing toward the region. This should combine with daytime heating increasing low level lapse rates as well as decent unidirectional shear for showers and thunderstorms to be possible most of the day in advance of the approaching mid level wave. Uncertainty remains in the extent of cloud cover and its effect on daytime heating and ultimately the degree of instability. This would not only affect the chances for severe thunderstorms but also impact whether or not heavy rain occurs with the storms as well. However, an approaching cold front along with the boundary currently stretched out over the Ohio Valley could lead to training of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates as they become parallel or nearly parallel to the mid and upper level flow. The cloud cover could also impact max t which has been lowered a bit from previous forecasts, though less mixing might balance out any affects of mixing on lowering dewpoints. Cape of at least the 1500 to 2500 range with li of at least the -4c to -6c range are anticipated from midday into the evening as a couple hours of heating should be able to take sfc temps into the 80s. This all does depend on the evolution of upstream convection near the confluence of the OH and MS River Valleys and whether it holds together, sends debris clouds across the area, or sends an outflow to focus redevelopment. The primary severe threat appears to be damaging winds with marginally severe hail also possible in the strongest storms. Locally heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding also remains a threat. PW is expected to increase on westerly to southwesterly flow today further east into the region in advance of the approaching cold front. The flash flood watch has been extended not only in time into this evening...BUT Also further to the east to include locations of higher soil moisture and most of where some short term model runs produce the stronger convection. This generally aligned with locations where the heavier rain has fallen in the past 48 to 54 hours coinciding with areas of 3 hr FFG values near or in some cases below 2.0 inches exist. Uncertainty does remain if heavy rain will be more than localized as well as what locations. It is possible that a further expansion of the watch east or south could be needed later today pending convective trends. Drier and somewhat cooler air will move into the region behind the cold front on saturday. A few showers could linger into the day on saturday or even redevelop during peak heating nearer to The VA and TV border where moisture will be highest. Capping should keep cu on the shallower side and likely not deep enough for any thunder, tHUS Precip type was kept at showers. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Forecast remains confident on dry forecast for the second half of the weekend. Rain chances will return by Monday, but models remain in poor agreement on exactly by what means rain chances return. The GFS brings a warm front north across the area, while the ECMWF brings a slow tracking low pressure system east across the area. Outside of increasing rain chances, large uncertainty will remain in the forecast beyond Monday due to the evolution. It does appear a more summerlike airmass may reside over the area through the week, possibly leading to more diurnally focused shower/storm chances through the week. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, some locally heavy rainfall may be a possibility on Monday. Temperatures will continue to feel very summerlike through next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A cold front and mid level wave are approaching the region as well as more mesoscale systems. Convection continues to have along a boundary from southern Indiana that arcs southeast toward the VA border. The remnants of an MCS are also moving across southern IL and western KY. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the timing and strength of thunderstorms as they move across the area through this evening. Reductions of MVFR and IFR are anticipated as showers and storms pass a location with this most likely at JKL, SYM, and SJS during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period. Stratus and fog should develop late tonight with reductions to IFR if not approaching airport mins possible by the 6Z to 12Z period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ058>060-068-069- 079-080-083>086-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 KYZ085-086-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-091900- WHITLEY-KNOX-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY- LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE... PAINSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY... MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. KYZ044-050>052-091900- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD 1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY... MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114-091900- ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE- MCCREARY-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY... STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE... ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS... WHITLEY CITY...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON... BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE 1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY... MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...HEAVY RAIN...AND FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. KYZ087-088-091900- BELL-HARLAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND... HARLAN 1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY... MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE OR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSEMAN
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:47 UTC.
12 thunderstorm wind, 5 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed reports of multiple trees down between Cream Alley and Camargo Levee Roads in Camargo.
Dispatch reported a tree down on Adams Ridge Road in Clay City.
An NWS employee reported several trees down from near Flatgap to along Kentucky Highway 201 in and near Sitka.
An NWS employee and dispatch reported flood waters covering portions of Highway 15 south of Jackson. Flooding was also observed on Cook Fork Road in Quicksand as nearly six inches of water was encroaching on a residence.
Dispatch reported several trees down along Reges Road and Barnes Mountain Road near Irvine.
A citizen observed a tree blown down on Old Brodhead Road in Brodhead.
The Department of Highways reported trees down just south of Pippa Passes.
The Department of Highways reported trees down across various portions of the county.
The Department of Highways reported trees down from Gray to Bimble.
A citizen observed water quickly spilling out of the banks of a nearby creek and encroaching on a home on Kings Branch Road southeast of Jackson.
A trained spotter observed several inches of water flowing over Shopville Road in Shopville.
A citizen reported a tree blown into a powerline in the Tattersall portion of Corbin.
Emergency Management reported a tree blown onto a house in McWhorter.
The Department of Highways reported trees down near Lynch.
The Department of Highways and local broadcast media relayed reports of trees down from Straight Creek to the Ambleside section of Middlesboro.
A trained spotter observed nearly seven inches of water flowing across Kentucky Highway 2011 in Beverly.
Broadcast media relayed reports of water approaching homes from flood water in Big Fork.
Broadcast media relayed reports of swiftly flowing water across U.S. Highway 421 near Big Creek and Bear Branch. A few homes and a church in the Big Creek area were also being threatened by these flood waters.
Broadcast media relayed reports of quickly rising flood waters approaching a couple of homes along Elk Creek southeast of Manchester.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 634654, 634656, 634657, 634804, 634659, 634660, 635015, 635025, 635020, 634805, 634806, 634662, 634663, 635013, 634665, 634811, 634803, 634810, 634809.