Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 8, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and unstable airmass will persist across the area into the
weekend with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front will move into the area from the northwest early
Sunday and become stationary through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 500 PM Friday: Still not seeing any convection across the
area, and new CAMs tend to want to break the incoming MCS apart
across the mountains. Very suspicious of this as sbCAPE/dCAPE and
shear all seem at least somewhat supportive of the MCS making it
across. That said, MCS-related composite indices on the latest
mesoanalysis do drop off over our western zones. CAM guidance
doesn't seem too excited about the convection pushing across but
CAMs have done a particularly poor job lately so that doesn't really
help one way or the other. SWOMCD (severe potential) and FFGMPD
(flash flood potential) recently issued both hint that we could be
in for an active evening. Additionally, sbCAPE values across the NC
Piedmont are >4000 J/kg so despite lack of convective initiation,
still concerned that there is some potential for significant
convection in these areas ahead of the MCS.

So, reduced pops for early this afternoon, increased them toward 00z
in the mountains and trended into the going forecast overnight. With
the clear skies across the area, temperatures across the Piedmont
have really climbed and so have had to make some adjustments to
hourly T/Tds as well.

Otherwise, for Saturday, guidance is trying to introduce drier air
into the forecast area by afternoon. In fact, the GFS has little
CAPE depicted along and north of the I-40 corridor tomorrow
afternoon. Indeed, based upon forecast soundings, surface dewpoints
could mix out to the upper 50s. Nevertheless, this is all far from a
certainty. Slight to low chance pops will be advertised during the
afternoon. High temps will once again be well above normal, with the
upper Savannah River Valley once again expected to approach the
century mark. The lower dewpoints should keep heat indices below
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday:  The short term fcst period initializes on
Saturday evening as a large H5 trof advects eastward atop the Great
Lakes, while a upper anticyclone dominates across the southern
Plains and Four Corners.  At the surface, high pressure centered
over the eastern Gulf will be the prevailing feature across the
southeast while a front/trof associated with the a fore mentioned H5
cyclone slides through the OH valley into the Appalachians region
with sprawling high pressure filling in behind across the Midwest.

Pattern evolution through the short term features eastward advection
of the primary upper ridge, while the surface high complies by way
of eastward advection into the northern OH valley into Sunday,
before moving into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.  The above
mentioned cold front is fcst to push into the region on Sunday,
likely stalling out through the remainder of the period.  Meanwhile,
guidance continues to highlight wave development to the west across
the Ozarks, sliding east into the TN valley Monday and thus finally
working to lift the front northward as southerly waa increases.  The
primary fcst challenge through the short term will be the eventual
track of this wave as the ECMWF moves it just west of the southern
Appalachians on Monday afternoon, while the GFS ejects it sharply to
the north and thus yielding lower impacts across the cwfa.

All said, the fcst really hasn't changed all that much with chance
pops favored on Sunday along/south of the I85 corridor as well as
across portions of the southern/central NC mtns, with slight chances
further north and east.  The pops on Monday will favor more of an
ECMWF solution with increased levels regionwide, the greatest of
which residing across the mtns in closer proximity to the
approaching surface wave.  Thus, the fcst features widespread high
chances across the mtns on Monday, with low/mid chances over the
remainder of the fcst area.  Temperatures will lower a bit on Sunday
however remain 3-4 degrees above normal, before returning to near
normal levels on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Friday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on Tuesday
with steep upper ridging building over the region from the west and
a persistent closed H5 low moving up the west side of the ridge. Some
of the guidance continues to generate a fairly potent looking H5 shortwave
over the fcst area that is embedded within the ridge. This feature
is expected to dissolve by early Wednesday as the ridge axis moves
north of the Carolinas and a more zonal upper pattern settles over the
region in its wake. Some degree of upper lvl troffing will likely
persist along the central US/Canada border, however it should not
have a significant impact on our synoptic pattern.

At the surface, a lingering weak frontal boundary will lift north of
the CWFA on Tuesday with moist southerly low level flow associated with
the Bermuda High spreading back over the CWFA. Another weak cold front
is expected to approach the CWFA late Thursday/early Friday and bring
additional deep layer moisture to the area for the end of the Medium
Range period. No major changes were needed to the sensible fcst with
slight chance to high-end solid chance POPs each day/evening. Temps have
been showing a warming trend based on the latest guidance with values
expected to remain 2 to 4 degrees above climatology each day.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still no convective development across the
forecast area yet this afternoon.  Have removed the TEMPO TSRA at
KCLT for the 21z AMD and will continue to reevaluate through the
evening. The smallest chances for convection will exist at the
Upstate SC terminals, where instability is lowest. While convection
cannot be completely ruled out there, opted to allow things to
bubble a little more before entertaining the introduction of VCTS.
Meanwhile, VCTS will be carried from 20-21Z into the evening at KAVL
and KHKY. These sites could well need a tempo at some point, as
convection is expected to organize across east Tenn later this
afternoon and move into the western Carolinas this evening. How this
will all shakes out it still very much up in the air, and there is
plenty of time to add tempos before convection approaches.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist though the period (outside
of convection), although there could be some patchy fog/stratus in
outlying areas, especially in the valleys west of KAVL.

Outlook: A mainly diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Fog and low stratus will be possible each
morning in the mountain river valleys and also in locations that
receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms. A frontal
boundary may stall across the terminal area early next week to keep
the weather active.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1988     63 1909     69 1969     50 1972
   KCLT     101 2012     75 1950     81 1881     58 1892
                2010
   KGSP     101 1986     72 1896     76 2012     57 1913
                1888                    1931

RECORDS FOR 07-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1986     64 1979     71 1980     49 1896
   KCLT     101 1986     71 1908     78 1986     57 1891
   KGSP     100 1993     67 1979     78 1930     55 1896
                1986
                1977

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL/TDP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-057-059-063>065-068>072-501>510-092115-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
509 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 TO 70
MPH...AS WELL AS HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ058-062-082-SCZ001>010-012>014-092115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-GRAHAM-MACON-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-LAURENS-CHESTER-
509 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ011-019-092115-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
509 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ058-082200-
GRAHAM NC-
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 530 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF TOWN OF SANTEETLAH...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROBBINSVILLE...TOWN OF
SANTEETLAH...LAKE SANTEETLAH...FONTANA VILLAGE... FONTANA
LAKE...CHEOAH...TAPOCO AND STECOAH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3545 8397 3543 8366
      3525 8371 3524 8376 3526 8379 3525 8385
      3522 8394 3524 8401 3527 8401 3529 8403
      3531 8402 3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 282DEG 22KT 3536 8403

ARK