An upper level disturbance moving through in northwest flow aloft triggered a few thunderstorms across Northwest Tennessee during the evening hours of July 28th. One storm produced damaging winds near Newbern.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance moving through in northwest flow aloft triggered a few thunderstorms across Northwest Tennessee during the evening hours of July 28th. One storm produced damaging winds near Newbern.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 5:43 AM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 643 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/ DISCUSSION... Showers continue to spin around the upper level low that is located over the Mid-South. Expect most of the showers to be confined to areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River by 7-8 AM CDT as the upper low moves to the Northeast. Based today's forecast on the short term models HRRR, 4KM NAM, WRF, and RAP. The models were very good at predicting how convection developed yesterday. All are now in pretty good agreement that convection today will fire up along some old outflow boundary that is located from near Greenville, Mississippi to Starkville, Mississippi. As a result, put highest POPS along the extreme southern portions of the CWA. By the afternoon, some of this convection may move further north affecting more of Northeast Mississippi. Outside this area of expected convection, expect coverage to be scattered at best with development more diurnally based due to a broad upper level trough that will continue to sit over the region. With less thunderstorm coverage expected over most of the CWA, have bumped up high temperatures into the lower 90s across Memphis and North Mississippi. Guidance was horrible yesterday and highs were well above what guidance was showing. It seems that if a location does not receive any convection that highs will reach into the lower 90s easily which is near normal for this time of year. However, if a location does receive rainfall temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s. Trying to pinpoint where convection will develop through the weekend will be hard to do as models such as the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are having a hard time picking up on the mesoscale features that have been the trigger points of where the convection has been developing. Beyond today, have leaned on the 4KM NAM through Friday Night. After the early evening hours, the model does not have much convection so have lowered POPS to 20s except for areas near the Tennessee River. Looks like the next decent chance for thunderstorms may come on Friday as models are showing a thunderstorm complex developing over Kansas, Oklahoma, SW Missouri, and NW Arkansas during the overnight hours tonight. The 4KM NAM shows this complex approaching the Mid-South around sunrise Friday morning, but dissipates it before it actually moves into the CWA. However, the model shows redevelopment along outflow boundaries in Southern Missouri and NOrthern Arkansas that will likely be leftover from the complex. This development will push into the Mid-South by mid-day and affect much of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Over the weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as the broad upper trough sits over the region. However, trying to pinpoint where and when the best chances will occur is just to hard. For now, just have kept 40 and 50 POPS across the area. Since the airmass is very moist any thunderstorms that develop from today through the weekend have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. By Monday, the upper trough will begin to shift east as an upper ridge begins to build into the Mid-South. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish from west to east and will become more diurnally driven by Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will begin to creep back into the mid 90s. As a result, heat advisories may become necessary again by Tuesday and Wednesday as the combination of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will produce heat index values around 105 degrees. KRM && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms continue to drift slowly in a general easterly direction this morning, affecting areas along and south of I-40. Thunder is absent for the most part, but we do anticipate strong updrafts later this morning as the boundary layer destabilizes, so thunder was included at all sites excluding Jonesboro, which will be west of the primary circulation. Low ceilings will gradually improve throughout the morning hours, with VFR conditions anticipated outside of convection. Rain chances will decrease this evening, but may pick back up during the overnight hours. Will put the most emphasis on the first 12 hours and omit prevailing precipitation overnight. We'll also have to watch for low ceilings once again, especially in and our and thunderstorms that develop. Johnson && .MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 314 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291200- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 314 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. KRM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
738 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 AM HEAVY RAIN LAKELAND 35.24N 89.73W
07/28/2016 M4.65 INCH SHELBY TN PUBLIC
4.65 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN LAKELAND.
&&
AJCThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 107 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:00 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line wind knocked down two power poles on Highway 211 near Locust Grove Road. A spotter reported a measured wind gust of 66.9 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652210.