Isolated thunderstorms tracked southeast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The storms occurred along a weak cold front as it sagged southeast across southeast Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms tracked southeast during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The storms occurred along a weak cold front as it sagged southeast across southeast Missouri. A small cluster of storms pulsed up to severe levels just east of Poplar Bluff, producing marginally severe wind gusts. Slow-moving storms in the Ozark foothills produced torrential rainfall and flash flooding of roads.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 2:05 PM CST, 54 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 305 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Average confidence in the short term mainly due to precipitation timing differences/possibilities. Very few changes synoptically in the short term. An approaching frontal boundary is forecast to become quasi- stationary along the far northern and northwestern sections of our CWA through the period. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough. With the lower troposphere remaining saturated combined with plenty of instability in the warm sector, a series of upper level disturbances passing across the area will generate multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Timing of these disturbances varies per model so trying to pin down the highest probabilities is difficult at this time. Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period. No heat headlines expected, but with dewpoints remaining in the 70s, humid/sticky conditions will continue. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 An upper level trof over our region and a meandering front across and sometimes just north of our northern counties will continue to give our region good chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Tuesday. Models now show the front becoming more northwest to southeast oriented by Tuesday night instead of moving away from our region, and this will put the focus for a little better chances across our east half of counties for Wednesday. Models also indicate convection will become more diurnally driven by mid week, so kept small chances of showers and storms during the day Wednesday and Thursday, but kept out any chances for precipitation for Tuesday night and Wednesday night for now. Confidence is not very high for Tuesday into Thursday due to the varying solutions with the movement of the front, so keeping pops in chance category or lower for now seems to be the best option. After a break in the heat Sunday, increasing southerly flow beginning late Sunday will increase temperatures and dew points Monday continuing through Thursday. Heat indices will creep back up to around 100 degrees for our southwest counties by Monday, with 100 to 105 degree heat indices possible across most our region by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 With plenty of moisture, instability, and an approaching frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys a good bet again this afternoon into the early evening hours. Overnight expect cigs/vsbys to become IFR, then maybe improve back to MVFR in the last few hours of the period. Winds will either be light out of the southwest to west or calm. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP LONG TERM...RST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1112 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-291000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1112 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THIS WILL INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS. JP
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:58 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Both lanes of State Route 51 were blocked by trees that were blown down.
Water was over portions of roads in the Big Springs area. Some roads were damaged, including County Road 227.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642300, 646853.