Drought in Tennessee, December 6 to 13, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1103 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 912 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The wet wx continues across the cntrl TN Valley for the start of the
new work week. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall continues to
move ne across much of the area, as a low pressure system over sw LA
begins to move nwd. As this system quickly moves into nrn MS/mid TN
overnight, rainfall will likely increase over the local area. A few
elevated/embedded tstms are possible as well after midnight, although
most of the activity should remain as showers. Temp trends currently
in the lower 50s for most locations will also remain fairly stagnant
going into the early morning hrs, given the abundant cloud cover and
precip. Other than lowering overnight lows a couple of degrees based
on the latest readings, no major changes are needed to the afternoon
forecast at this point.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The surface low should be north and east of the region after
daybreak Tuesday. This should end the heavier showers and storms.
The NAM was hinting at ducting/wake low formation occurring mainly
just to our east. This could result in gusty easterly winds Tuesday
morning over our far eastern areas. Shower activity otherwise should
end from west to east during the course of the day. Rainfall amounts
from this system should range from 1-2 inches, with locally higher
amounts. The rain will definitely help with the drought situation
most of the area has been under as of late. Somewhat greater
hydrological response is possible from this next system; as the
ground is a little wetter than before. Cloudy skies otherwise will
continue with highs in the mid/upper 50s.

Dry weather is forecast Tuesday night - with the area between
systems. An Arctic cold front and clipper type system headed ESE from
the Front Range region will bring more clouds and a chance of rain
during Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Colder air from the
northwest will filter in, bringing lows into the low/mid 30s. Some
light snow may mix in with the rains over our northern areas before
daybreak Thursday. Given a warm and wet ground, no accumulation
issues are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The Arctic front continues to track southeast across the area by 12z
Thursday and the precip associated with it is looking drier with each
model run. Both GFS/ECMWF this morning had maybe a few sprinkles
across the area. Will keep the blended pops right now (chance in the
SE counties to slight chance to the NW) but they are less than
previous runs and it should probably continue to decrease as we get
closer to the event. It should also be breezy with the frontal
passage as the gradient tightens with wind gusts of 15-20 mph
possible. Lows will be near normal and in the middle 30s.

The front should be through the whole area by 00z Friday, earlier in
the NW parts of the area. GFS is much quicker with the dry air and
the colder air and is a few degrees colder than other models. This
would lead to cooler high temps. It does look like the GFS is the
slight outlier with the blends and other individual guidance a bit
warmer so will stick with the blended temps at this time which puts
highs in the lower 40s. Won't be surprised if it ends up colder
thanks to strong cold advection that will be occurring.

Thursday night will be the coldest we have seen this season with
lows dropping to around 18-20 degrees. With a 5-10mph wind, the wind
chills will drop to around 9-12 degrees. The cold air continues to
move in Friday with the coldest highs of the year expected, in the
middle 30s. The record minimum max temps are 30 degrees for both
Huntsville and Muscle Shoals so that record does not look to be
broken. Clear skies and light winds Friday night will help drop
temps again to around 18-20 degrees but with light winds, the wind
chills will only be a couple degrees cooler.

Synoptic differences become evident starting Saturday with the
location of a developing front over the midwest. This could bring
showers and maybe thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday,
depending on which model you choose. Given the uncertainty, kept the
blended pops and kept all rain. With southerly flow returning
though, a warming trend will start with highs back into the upper
50s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Reduced flying conds continue at both main terminals this late Mon
evening, as additional ra/shra begin to move newd into the wrn half
of the area. Very low clouds are well in place across most of the
area, with IFR cigs aoa 500 ft. Precip is xpcted to linger into the
morning hrs Tue, as upper disturbances continue to traverse newd
across the region. Cloud cover may lift closer to 1K ft late in the
morning period, as -shra taper off from the w. However, with abundant
moisture thickness well in place, low cigs will prevail into the
early evening hrs. Sfc winds also look to remain out of the SE near
10-12KT heading into the morning period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...09

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1030 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON SOME ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

70/DD