High Wind in South Dakota, March 6, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

FRINGE OF 850MB AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES WITH READINGS AT
KPHP/KD07 INTO THE 70S. THIS BUBBLE OF +16C AT 850MB WILL MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...ALIGNED WITH A 40 TO 55KT LOW LEVEL
JET. AS THE JET MOVES OVER THE COTEAU...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STALL/WARM OVERNIGHT. THE COTEAU AND JUST DOWN WIND ALSO HAS THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS REACH THE
SURFACE...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THAT
AREA.

MIXING WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE CORE OF
WARMEST AIR OVERHEAD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
PUSHING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE +16C AIR MASS AT
850MB LINGERS OVERNIGHT AND COULD INITIALLY MIX DOWN INTO THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO RAISED HIGHS FOR
SISSETON/WATERTOWN AND POINTS EAST A FEW DEGREES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK LIFT BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN VIRGA. THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROF HAVE FALLEN WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...LIMITED TO
WATERTOWN AND EAST AND ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG. MOISTURE POTENTIAL
OTHERWISE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AS LIFT IS ONLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 MICROBARS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT INTERMITTENT
SATURATION. LOW LEVEL SATURATION OVER THE EASTERN CWA COULD EXTEND
TO 3 TO 5KFT SO DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ACTUAL RAIN
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

STILL SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS...WHERE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. OVERALL...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LACKING...THEREFORE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THEN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN THEIR ABOVE NORMAL STATUS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

MOST CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 15K FEET THROUGH THE REST OF
TNT AND SUNDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TNT BUT WILL
SLOWLY END TOWARD MORNING AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND SLOW DOWN SOME
ALOFT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-020-021-023.
MN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1020 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-070430-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1020 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 /920 PM MST SAT MAR 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TMT