Marine Thunderstorm Winds in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, August 7, 2016

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
927 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current...A sfc low appears to be located just east of Lake City on
KJAX radar. The bulk of slow moving deep convection however remains
over the coastal Gulf of Mexico waters of the FL Big bend. More
prevalent rains in the form of slow moving showers just to the west
of Lake county are poised to cross the I-4 corridor during the late
morning.

Latest sounding data from XMR/TBW indicated strong SW flow of 20 to
25 kts from the SFC through mid levels with PWAT values near 2
inches. Abnormally warm temperature near -5C along with stronger sfc
winds to inhibit east coast breeze development will make for a
challenging short term forecast. Current forecast still appears
reasonable with 50-60 pct coverage of mainly afternoon pcpn appears
reasonable considering available PWAT and favorable SW wet season
flow regime. Sfc heating along the coastal zones wl allow for
instability to develop by afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Timing of precip remains challenge due to early clouds north and
expected heating along the coast and southern areas. Select TEMPO
groups mention VCSH to TS with a concentration from early through
mid-afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...SW gradient winds ascd with sfc low south of I-10
and nearing the FL east coast will create a moderate SSW to SW flow
of 10-15Kt with higher afternoon gusts. Seas in the 2-3FT range near
the coast will be around 3 to 4 ft over the outer waters into
tonight. Winds and seas will be locally higher near offshore moving
lightning storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/FJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-080200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR
CEDAR KEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE COUNTY THIS MORNING, SO WE
CAN EXPECT AN EARLIER START TO STORMS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY'S STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 20 MPH, AND WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD, AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUST UP TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE
THE HIGHEST FROM 300 PM THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. TO REDUCE YOUR
RISK OF BECOMING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT
OF A LIFEGUARD, AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH STORM COVERAGE RETURNING .
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. SOUTHWEST STEERING
WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS TO PUSH OFF THE
MAINLAND INTO THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS IN STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CRISTALDI/JOHNSON