Low pressure tracked north through New York bringing a warm front through southern New England. Unseasonably deep moisture accompanied this front.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.
Low pressure tracked north through New York bringing a warm front through southern New England. Unseasonably deep moisture accompanied this front. This was a very complicated weather situation as a strong low level inversion was in place over the area with a very strong low level jet just above the inversion. As showers and thunderstorms developed, the storms and heavy rain allowed the stronger winds to mix down to the surface. In other areas, temperatures warmed enough at the surface to break the inversion and allow the stronger winds to mix down. This resulted in a complicated combination of severe thunderstorm winds and high winds. To add to the historical nature of this event, it occurred in February all during the overnight hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 9:38 PM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY...OTHER THAN FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CANADA...WITH ONE BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
*** PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO EVEN LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ***
*** TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR ***
930 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ...
EXTREMELY POTENT CONVECTIVE LINE FOR LATE FEB ACROSS ACROSS
EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ SOUTHWARD INTO MD AND DE AT 930 PM. THE
FORECAST DILEMMA REGARDING THIS CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS THAT A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
FL. MOST OF THE HI RES GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 00Z NAM AND THE SPC
SSEO SIMULATE A SCENARIO WHERE PA/NJ CONVECTION TRAVERSES INTO WESTERN
CT/MA...THEN WEAKENS AS CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TAKES
OVER LATER TONIGHT WITH THIS NEW AREA OF CONVECTION CLIPPING CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS TOWARD 12Z THU. THIS IS A VERY DELICATE
ATMOSPHERIC BALANCE AND VERY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY
SIMULATE. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST THEME OF A MORE
OR LESS EQUAL RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.
ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 70-80 KT TRAVERSES THE REGION
06Z-09Z AND THAT WILL BE THE WINDOW OF GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 00Z OBSERVED OKX SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING DEPICTS
A SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN THE WARM SECTOR AROUND 950 MB WITH
A TEMP OF +16C! THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH OF THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE WIND THREAT INCREASES
WITH STRONG SHALLOW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS BREAKING THRU THIS
INVERSION.
OTHERWISE ONLY UPDATE IS TO MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER CURRENT
POSITION OF WARM FRONT. INCREDIBLE TEMP DIFFERENCES OVER SHORT
DISTANCES THIS EVENING. FOR EXAMPLE...38 AT BDL AND 61 AT IJD...
42 AT BOS AND 60 AT OWD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PASSING TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT
IS ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO OUR REGION WITH
PWATS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY ENTER A BRIEF LULL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...BUT GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SECTION BELOW FOR
TONIGHT.
1) TEMPERATURES...
THE INVERSION WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A FEW LOCALES IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR.
ONCE THAT OCCURS...VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO SHOOT UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
2) TIMING AND HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS...
WHILE WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...IT WILL NOT
LAST LONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT/DEEP MOISTURE.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR WEST WILL INDUCE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. HIGHEST OF THOSE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS. WHILE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
NOT RESULT IN MUCH RIVER FLOODING...LOW RISK THAT A FEW OF OUR
SMALLER FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS GO INTO MINOR FLOOD IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED. AT THIS TIME THOUGH DO NOT FEEL IT
WARRANTS A FLOOD WATCH. WITH THAT SAID...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
3) THUNDERSTORM AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL:
LASTLY AND BIGGEST CONCERN/POTENTIAL IMPACT DEALS WITH STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS IS
NEAR MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 7 AM. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH AN INVERSION...SO ALWAYS THE
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH OF IT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. USUALLY IN
THESE CASES THERE IS A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR SOME OF THE WIND TO
MIX DOWN...MAINLY IN A FINE LINE OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS. MUCAPE
VALUES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 300 TO 700 J/KG OF CAPE AND SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING TO -2. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION ARE
IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS TRANSPIRE...THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING LOCALLY STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY IF WERE ABLE TO GET A FINE LINE
GOING.
BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SINCE ONCE INVERSION MIXES OUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. IF ANYTHING MORE
INTENSE DEVELOPS ON THE RADAR...SUCH AS WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 60 MPH
WILL HANDLE IT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT. EARLY MORNING
TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. TEMPS PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 50 INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR AT LEAST THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONCE THE MAIN ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE COAST BY
MID MORNING...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL ALOFT. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BUT
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR RE-DEVELOPING WINDY CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING AS COLDER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WIND FIELDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING. STILL FEEL WE MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
APPROACHED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* HIT OR MISS SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PRECIP POTENTIAL
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
POSITIVE PNA HAS KEPT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT STILL DIFFER IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN AS
EVIDENCED BY SEPARATED ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CLUSTERING. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
SUN-MON WILL BRING SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW THEN PROGRESSES
INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE AS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND CONSEQUENTLY TOO WARM FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW. HOWEVER CONTINUE TO WATCH A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS...COULD SEE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY OVERNIGHT
AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO -13C. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF PVD/BOS. BECAUSE OF
THE COOLER START TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. HOWEVER WITH
LESS WIND AND CLEARING SKIES IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...APPEARS THAT WE WILL WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN AS 850 MB
TEMPS WARM TO 6C. SURFACE TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 50F ON
SUNDAY...AND MID 50S BY MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60S ON MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT THANKS TO WESTERLY WIND.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT POINTING TO A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TRENDED TOWARDS A CHC OF
SHOWERS...MORE OF THE HIT OF MISS VARIETY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
SO THE TREND CAN CHANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. EC AND EC
ENSEMBLES SHOW A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE LOW WE ARE ON WE COULD SEE WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
CMC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER BY THURSDAY WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE WHICH IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE POSITIVE PNA AN
A TRENDING NEGATIVE NAO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE ...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. STRONGEST WINDS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL 06Z-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL
12Z CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
=====================================================================
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS OF 50+ KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN. ONCE THE INVERSION MIXED OUT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT
WITH A LOW RISK FOR 50 KNOTS GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SWEEP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. WINDS SLACKEN THU AM BUT
LIKELY SEE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS RE-DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST OF THOSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGHEST RISK FOR
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 05ZAND
11Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGHEST RISK
FOR ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 03Z
AND10Z.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE SW ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO AFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BUT ITS ALWAYS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF IT WILL MIX DOWN. STILL FEEL A GOOD SHOT AT
35 TO 40+ KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY IN ANY CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OF RAIN/FOG AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN POOR VSBYS FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SLACKEN FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING AS OCCLUDED FRONT EXITS THE COAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A SECOND ROUND OF SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING THOUGH AS DRIER AIR WORKS OVER THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. 12 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ON THE EXPOSED EASTERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT ADV LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WIND GUSTS NEAR 30-
34 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX. SCA MAY
BE DROPPED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO
25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS
AND SWELL INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WORST IS NOW ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE RI AND MA SOUTH COAST. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TIME OF THE
THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AT THE TIME OF THE
HIGH TIDE...MAINLY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM...THE STORM SURGE SHOULD HAVE
HAD A CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. THE FASTER MOVEMENT IS REFLECTED IN
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. OUR THINKING IS THAT THE SURGE
MAY PEAK BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 FEET IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT RELAX TO
AROUND 1.5 FEET OR SO BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE. SWELLS OF 10 TO
15 FEET APPROACHING THE EXPOSED RI AND MA SOUTH COASTS MAY INDUCE
SOME SPLASHOVER WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE HIGH TIDE. AT THIS POINT ANY
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE VERY MINOR AND SO ONLY ISSUED A STATEMENT WITHOUT
EVEN AN ADVISORY HEADLINE.
THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS AND SOUTHERLY SWELLS BREAKING
ONSHORE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION ALONG SOME EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING BEACHES...INCLUDING THOSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARTHA/S
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
WE STILL WILL NEED TO WATCH THE MOUTH OF THE PAWCATUCK RIVER IN
WESTERLY FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF BOTH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE AND THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH FRESH WATER RUNOFF AGAINST THE RELATIVELY HIGH
TIDES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW SINCE THE MAGNITUDES OF
BOTH THE RUNOFF AND THE SURGE ARE FACTORS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-012>016.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN - UPDATED 930 PM
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSONHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 MAZ002-004-008-009-026-252115- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-012>016-RIZ001-252115- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MAZ003-010-011-252115- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MAZ017>024-RIZ002>008-252115- NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA- SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA- NANTUCKET MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-252115- BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND- BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET- COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND- 408 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1013 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CTZ002-MAZ008>011-250345-
HARTFORD CT-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
1013 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWESTERN HARTFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTIES...
AT 1012 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR NORTHWEST HARWINTON...OR NEAR BRISTOL...MOVING NORTH AT 80 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRISTOL...WESTFIELD...HOLYOKE...NORTHAMPTON...WEST SPRINGFIELD...SIMSBURY...
AVON...SOUTH HADLEY...EASTHAMPTON...SUFFIELD...GRANBY...CANTON...SOUTHWICK...
BURLINGTON...SOUTHAMPTON...HADLEY...HUNTINGTON...HARTLAND...RUSSELL AND
WESTHAMPTON.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
LAT...LON 4212 7306 4215 7307 4215 7303 4231 7300
4233 7306 4234 7256 4164 7298 4180 7302
4181 7295 4188 7295 4190 7291 4197 7289
4197 7303 4204 7301 4204 7306 4211 7307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 199DEG 70KT 4174 7303
SIPPRELLSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CTZ002-MAZ002-003-008>011-250400-
HARTFORD CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
1032 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWESTERN HARTFORD...HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN
HAMPDEN AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
AT 1032 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GRANVILLE...OR NEAR WESTFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 80 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTFIELD...HOLYOKE...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...WEST SPRINGFIELD...
GREENFIELD...ORANGE...DEERFIELD...SOUTH HADLEY...EASTHAMPTON...GRANBY...
SOUTHWICK...MONTAGUE...SOUTHAMPTON...HADLEY...SUNDERLAND...HATFIELD...
WILLIAMSBURG...HUNTINGTON AND HARTLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GET INDOORS WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE...SUCH AS A FEW DOWNED BRANCHES.
&&
LAT...LON 4215 7307 4214 7305 4215 7303 4227 7300
4231 7300 4260 7296 4258 7234 4197 7281
4197 7303 4204 7301 4204 7306 4211 7307
4212 7306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 199DEG 70KT 4210 7286
SIPPRELLSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1124 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-250500-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
1124 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWESTERN TOLLAND...HARTFORD...
HAMPSHIRE...HAMPDEN...NORTHWESTERN WORCESTER...FRANKLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...
AT 1123 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MIDDLEFIELD TO NEAR
VERNON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 105 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...HARTFORD...NEW BRITAIN...WEST HARTFORD...BRISTOL...
MANCHESTER...CHICOPEE...EAST HARTFORD...ENFIELD...SOUTHINGTON...WESTFIELD...
HOLYOKE...AMHERST...GLASTONBURY...NEWINGTON...VERNON...WINDSOR...
NORTHAMPTON...AGAWAM AND WEST SPRINGFIELD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GET INDOORS WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE...SUCH AS A FEW DOWNED BRANCHES.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR SMALL STREAMS.
&&
LAT...LON 4215 7307 4215 7303 4231 7300 4233 7306
4273 7264 4271 7185 4165 7254 4163 7271
4159 7275 4179 7302 4181 7295 4188 7295
4197 7289 4197 7303 4204 7301 4204 7306
4211 7307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 205DEG 90KT 4232 7301 4187 7244
MDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1155 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-RIZ001-003-250545-
WINDHAM CT-TOLLAND CT-HARTFORD CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
1155 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
WINDHAM...TOLLAND...HARTFORD...HAMPSHIRE...
HAMPDEN...WORCESTER...FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX...WEST
CENTRAL KENT AND SOUTHWESTERN PROVIDENCE COUNTIES...
AT 1154 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
MINOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON ROADS AND
UNDERPASSES THAT ARE TYPICALLY PRONE TO FLOODING.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WORCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...HARTFORD...NEW BRITAIN...WEST HARTFORD...
BRISTOL...MANCHESTER...CHICOPEE...EAST HARTFORD...ENFIELD...SOUTHINGTON...
WESTFIELD...LEOMINSTER...FITCHBURG...HOLYOKE...AMHERST...GLASTONBURY...
NEWINGTON...VERNON AND WINDSOR.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GET INDOORS WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE...SUCH AS A FEW DOWNED BRANCHES.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS OR UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR SMALL STREAMS.
&&
LAT...LON 4263 7295 4267 7300 4270 7295 4270 7302
4274 7302 4271 7184 4161 7177 4164 7179
4166 7216 4171 7224 4159 7239 4158 7246
4165 7253 4163 7271 4155 7282 4156 7295
4180 7302 4181 7295 4197 7289 4197 7303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 240DEG 49KT 4209 7272
MDThe Boston radar (KBOX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:04 UTC.
15 thunderstorm wind, 2 strong wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree in West Greenwich was downed by thunderstorm winds, blocking a road.
A tree on Route 44 in Glocester was downed by thunderstorm winds, blocking the road.
A tree branch was downed onto wires in West Warwick.
A tree on Pippin Orchard Road in Cranston was downed by high winds. Trees along Atwood Avenue were downed. A sign was blown over onto cars. Several large branches were downed, blocking Hope Road.
A 35 foot tree on Lincoln Street in Barrington was downed by strong winds.
Tree limbs and branches on Narragansett Parkway in Warwick were downed by thunderstorm winds.
A large tree and wires on Whipple Avenue near the Douglas Pike were downed by thunderstorm winds, blocking Whipple Avenue.
Trees and wires were downed in Tiverton.
A tree limb was downed, blocking the eastbound lane of the Plainfield Pike in Cranston.
A tree and a utility pole on Locust Grove in Scituate were downed by thunderstorm winds.
A large pine tree was downed, blocking one lane of a road in Scituate.
A window was blown out of a house in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Providence.
Multiple trees were downed in the western part of Cranston.
A trained spotter reported a thunderstorm wind gust of 65 mph in South Kingstown. No damage was reported.
Wires on Hartford Avenue in Johnston were downed by thunderstorm winds.
A tree was downed, blocking a road in Glocester.
An amateur radio operator recorded a 76 mph wind gust on their home weather station in Bristol. In addition, several large trees were downed around Roger Williams University and other parts of Bristol.
A tree on Luther Road in Foster was downed by thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Rhode Island in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Rhode Island, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 621969, 621970, 621971, 621972, 621973, 621974, 621975, 621976, 621977, 621978, 621983, 621979, 621980, 621981, 621982, 621985, 621984, 621986.