Between the 20th and the 25th, a quasi-stationary front sagged south across the Lower Ohio Valley. It then lifted back north as an area of low pressure developed on the front and moved northeast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Between the 20th and the 25th, a quasi-stationary front sagged south across the Lower Ohio Valley. It then lifted back north as an area of low pressure developed on the front and moved northeast. Widespread showers with moderate to heavy rain fell during this time period. Precipitation during this period ranged between 1 and 3 inches. The rain brought the Ohio and White Rivers above flood stage by the end of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 5:40 PM EST, 9 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Paducah KY 440 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 439 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 224 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Very potent surface low will trek northeast into the eastern Great Lakes region this evening, leaving lots of cloud cover in its wake. Cannot rule out a touch of light snow very early up in the Wabash River Valley region early, but most of the significant winter precip is pretty much over for this event. Plan to either cancel remaining advisory early or just let it die a natural death at 00z this evening. No big shot of cold air to tap into tonight. In fact, sub freezing temps overnight may be limited mainly to snow covered regions of se MO and srn IL. Another mid level short wave will rotate southward toward the region on Thursday, but is moisture starved and should bring nothing more than considerable cloud cover, along with scattered snow flurries or areas of drizzle at times. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 High pressure will move along the Gulf Coast Friday and through most of the weekend. This will cause winds to shift to the south by Friday night, and this will result in below normal temperatures on Friday quickly warming to well above seasonal normals by Sunday. By Sunday night, models show a surface low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes region, which will drag a weak cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys. This will give us a small chance of showers Sunday night, temperatures will fall back closer to seasonal readings for Monday. A more significant weather system is expected for mid week, but models are not in good agreement on timing. ECMWF and GFS both show low pressure over the Central Plains by 12z Tuesday, but the ECMWF shows the low farther east and develops significant precipitation Monday night with a warm front lifting across our area. GFS does not bring any significant precipitation into our region until Tuesday night. For now went with slight chances of showers for southern Illinois and southeast Missouri Monday night, with chances gradually increasing and spreading east through Wednesday. Models show some LIs around zero in our southwest counties on Tuesday, so included a chance of thunderstorms for a small portion of our southeast Missouri counties. Models are in agreement that this will be a slow moving system, so we may see a fairly prolonged period a decent rainfall. It looks like temperatures will stay above normal into mid week, so no wintry precipitation is expected at this point && .AVIATION... Issued at 439 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 MVFR to IFR cigs to continue thru overnight hours, esp this evening, as frozen or mixed frozen/liquid pcpn restricts vsbys to MVFR at times. Time/height cross sections reveal low level moisture lingers despite some dry air working down the column with time, so will keep MVFR or low end VFR cigs thru duration of forecast. NWLY gusts to continue into evening and pick up again tmrw diurnally, but no as strong as today. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 453 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-251100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 453 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 ...STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TODAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOR HEAVY SNOW. FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST OF THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STORM BEGINS TO DEPART OUR REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ON THURSDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...OR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred on the White River. Agricultural bottomlands were underwater. |About a dozen county roads were flooded, including 750N, 600N, 1000E, 250W, 400W, 675N, 700N, and 1000W. The river remained above flood stage into early March.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Some low-lying fields and woods in the bottomlands were underwater. The river continued rising into early March.
Minor flooding occurred along the White River. Bottomland woods and fields were underwater. Floodwaters covered the Hazleton softball field. A few low rural roads were underwater and impassable. Low-lying oil fields were flooded. The river remained above flood stage into early March.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Some low-lying fields and woods in the bottomlands were underwater. The river continued rising into early March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 615609, 615605, 615611, 615606.