The first significant lake-effect snowfall of the year brought several inches of accumulation to northern and western parts of Warren County from November 19-21, 2016.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
The first significant lake-effect snowfall of the year brought several inches of accumulation to northern and western parts of Warren County from November 19-21, 2016.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 19, 2:14 AM EST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 214 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strengthening low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania Saturday, pushing a strong cold front through the state. Gusty northwest winds, well below normal temperatures, and frequent mountain snow showers are expected over the rest of the weekend. High pressure will build in by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Clear skies and a calm wind allowing temps to fall through the 30s early this morning in the valleys of Eastern Pa, resulting in patchy valley fog. The mildest readings overnight will be over the Allegheny Plateau, where a light southerly breeze should hold temps to the 45-50F range. A weaker gradient and calm wind should allow for more radiational cooling across the eastern half of the state with min temps in the 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Big transition day Saturday with respect to clouds, precip (and type), wind and temps as a strong cold front plows east across the region. The timing of the cfropa is about 15-16Z across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands...17-19Z through the central zones...and 20-22Z across the Susq Valley and Wrn Poconos. Expect a few areas of light to moderate showers...and perhaps even a NCFRB with brief heavy rain and strong westerly wind gusts of 45-50 mph right along the cold front. Although Thunder is a low possibility as the system is vigorous, dewpoints are rather paltry, and only result in sfc-based and ML capes of just 100 j/kg or less. Therefore, it's still not worth highlighting in the forecast, considering the other higher profile weather elements such as the wind, falling temps and then snow showers. Rainfall amts should be 1-3 tenths of an inch...and POPs were boosted 10-30 percent higher than the NBM guidance (especially across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands. Bufkit soundings suggest a very sharp drop in temps of 20-25 deg F within the first 3-4 hours of the frontal passage. 925 mb temps fall below 0C along and to the west of Route 219 in wrn PA by 21Z changing any showers quickly to some SHSN. A flash freeze of wet pavement is possible around dusk Saturday...with scattered snow showers across the central and western zones...and rain showers departing the eastern zones. Lake Effect Snow Watch, Lake Effect Snow Advisory, and a Winter Weather Advisory were posted for 21Z Sat through at least 00Z Monday for the NW mtns and Laurels. Considering the nose of very deep cold air with -7 to -9C 850 temps spreading across the region (and still warm Lower Glakes with temps of 10-13C), there will be very steep low-mid level lapse rates and an excellent setup for an early season significant Lake Effect and Orographic moderate to heavy snow event across the NW Mtns and Laurels. Very tight llvl p-gradient will also result in strong, gusty west to NW winds AOA 40 kts. This wind was covered so far in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (and winter weather products across the western mtns). Later shifts/forecast updates will need to consider posting a Wind Advisory for the rest of the Central Mtns and Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Accumulating lake effect snow is likely Saturday night into Monday. Coldest air of the season builds over northern PA with 850 mb temps of -10C to -12C with well-aligned moderate to strong WNW llvl flow. Post frontal northwesterlies should be quite robust on Sunday as this cold air blasts southeastward across the lakes. Likelihood exists for several inches or more of lake effect snowfall in the preferred locations between Saturday night through Sunday and into Monday morning. The other primary weather concern will be the strong NW winds, which could potentially reach advisory criteria later Sat night through Sun night based on latest Bufkit soundings that tap 50-60 kts of wind at 4-5 kft agl. Northwest flow will persist into Monday with lingering snow showers downstream of LE but dry and cold in the S/E. All med range guidance indicating fair wx Tuesday with passage of high pressure ridge. Latest GEFS and EC guidance tracks a weakening 1010mb sfc low from Mich to New York State Wed night/Thu, suggesting that a period of slightly milder/showery weather is likely at that time. Since secondary sfc low development is possible near the Delmarva or Mid Atl coast Thursday afternoon and evening, it may be tough to scour out the cold air, and some higher elevation mixed precip is possible. A chilly...mainly dry airmass will follow for late next week into Saturday. Gusty NW possible Friday as the aforementioned coastal low winds up south of Cape Cod. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall, VFR conditions with light winds will prevail across the region through Saturday morning. Could see MVFR vsby in fog Sat morn in the Susq Valley. Also, winds aloft begin to increase ahead of an approaching strong cold front - so mentioned LLWS arriving at KBFD after 06z Sat. Some LLWS out ahead of the front expected however the strongest shear should remain above 3KFT. The biggest issue with the wind shear will be directional with winds at the SFC out of the south and winds aloft out of the northwest. Big changes arrive later Sat behind the cold front. A period of strong gusty WNW winds expected to develop - peaking Sun into Sun night. Rain showers impact much of central PA later Sat, then a period of snow showers with reduced cigs/vsby likely at KBFD/KJST Sat night into Mon. Some snow showers could reach into KUNV Sun night into Mon. Outlook... Sat...Patchy AM fog possible. Snow showers/low vsbys possible Sat night KBFD/KJST. Sat night-Mon...Strong/gusty NW winds. Gusts frequently between 35-45 mph later Sat night through Sunday night. Snow showers/reduced vsby likely at KBFD/KJST. Ocnl MVFR cigs with flurries and brief snow showers across the Central Mtn airfields - KAOO, KUNV and KIPT with mainly VFR invof KMDT, KLNS and KTHV. Tues...Morning MVFR cigs possible across the northern and western mtns of PA...otherwise decreasing wind and improving conditions to mainly VFR. Wed...No significant weather expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Effect Snow Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening for PAZ004-005. Lake Effect Snow Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for PAZ006-010-011. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for PAZ012-017-018-024-033. && SYNOPSIS...Gartner NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Lake effect snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches were reported in the northwestern snow-belt of Warren County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662969.