A strong cold front crossed Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon the 19th. Much colder air poured into the Commonwealth behind this front, which was accompanied by several inches of snow, especially over the higher terrain areas.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A strong cold front crossed Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon the 19th. Much colder air poured into the Commonwealth behind this front, which was accompanied by several inches of snow, especially over the higher terrain areas. A slow-moving upper air low, which followed this front, slowly tracked across upstate New York into northern New England from Sunday the 20th to Tuesday the 22nd. A northwest flow of cold moist air around this upper level low combined with moisture from the Great Lakes leading to a prolonged period of heavy lake effect snow. The lake effect snow affected an unusually large part of central New York and made it down to extreme northeast Pennsylvania which typically doesn't see heavy lake effect snowfall. The heaviest lake effect snow affected extreme northeast Pennsylvania on Sunday afternoon and night where around a foot or more of snow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 19, 6:54 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
After a mild start to the weekend, a harsh return to winter will
come tonight, then remain into the early part of the coming week.
A brief period of wet snow, is expected to accompany the initial
surge of cold air tonight. Significant lake snows are expected
Sunday through Monday, over upstate New York, with occasional
snow showers and flurries for the southern tier, and northeast
Pennsylvania.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 pm update... Colder air continues to filter into the region
this evening, behind the earlier cold frontal passage. The low-
level thermal structures appear to be such that the higher terrain
of the twin tiers will see a change over to snow a good 1-3 hours
sooner than the surrounding valleys, and perhaps 3-5 hours sooner
than some of our lake plain areas up to the north. Bottom line,
snowfall accumulations tonight could still reach 2-3" over some of
the higher terrain, with an inch or less likely in most valleys.
The frontogenesis band is well observed on radar early this
evening, and it should continue to pivot east-northeastward
overnight.
The overall forecast philosophy for Sunday-Monday remains
unchanged, with a deep, moist NW flow developing behind the upper
low and increasingly stacked cyclone. This will lead to persistent
and locally heavy lake snows south and southeast of Lake Ontario.
Earlier discussion... 110 pm Saturday update... The balmy
conditions early this afternoon (temperatures 65-70 over most of
the forecast area) will be but a distant memory by this time
tomorrow. The strong cold front is into the western Finger Lakes
as of about 1 pm, and it will continue to move steadily east this
afternoon. A wind shift, as well as the start of falling
temperatures, will have reached the majority of the forecast area
by 4-6 pm.
As far as precipitation is concerned, there is not much along the
front itself, with a band of steadier light rain and snow roughly an
hour or two behind it. Based on satellite/radar extrapolation, and
high resolution model output, light rain should commence in our
western zones late this afternoon, then spread into the remainder
of the area early this evening. Based on consensus model
soundings, we feel a switch over to wet snow is likely in the
Finger Lakes and central southern tier by around 7 pm, the
Interstate 81 corridor by 8-9 pm, then the Poconos and Catskills
by 9-10 pm. Due to a strong, albeit brief, stripe of frontogenesis
forcing, a quick coating-2" of snow can be anticipated for many
spots, with some of the favored higher terrain areas up to around
3".
As alluded to above, the steadier snow should not last that long,
with a synoptic-scale dry slot progged to enter the region after
midnight. Thus, for much of central NY/northeast PA, the overnight
hours will be blustery and colder, but with only light and widely
scattered snow showers/flurries.
Things should begin to deteriorate again by mid-late morning
Sunday, as the main mid and upper-level cyclone rotates to our
east, allowing a deep, moist NW flow to set up. This should kick the
lake-effect machine into gear, with a little added upglide from
deformation band mechanics on the western side of the deepening
low. For most areas north of about a Bath-Ithaca-Cortland-
Norwich-Delhi line, wrap-around/lake-enhanced snows will be quite
persistent, and locally heavy. Also, once this pattern sets up, it
is likely to be quite stagnant through Monday (more details on
this below). Suffice to say, there are no areal changes to our
lake-effect advisories/warnings.
Another issue will be strong, gusty winds, with a tight pressure
gradient over the region. Thus, wind advisories will also be
posted starting later Sunday, for areas not already covered by
lake-effect warnings or advisories (namely NY's southern tier and
northeast PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM EST Update...
Heavy snow and strong winds expected....
By Sunday evening the the the upper lvl low that has initiated lake
enhanced (LE) showers will be located over northern VT and NH and
deep NW flow will dominate over central NY and northeast PA. Showers
Sunday evening will be a combination of lake enhancement with
synoptic support. 850MB temps will range from -9 to -11 over the
region which is plenty for lake enhanced snow showers to continue.
The low lvl mean flow across the area will be around 310 degrees at
00Z Monday. When this type of flow develops across lake Ontario,
snow showers tend to impact an area extending from Cayuga CO, NE
Cortland Co, NW Chenango CO, Madison Co and Western Oneida Co. The
flow across the lake is expected to remain near this flow through
mid morning, thus the orientation of the snow bands are not expected
to move much though the night. Thus, the area mentioned above could
see 3-6 inches of snow from 8pm Sunday to 8Am monday morning.
Decided to continue to Lake effect Warning as conditions continue to
look favorable for prolonged heavy amounts. Kept previous counties
in the warning. Decided to rise storm totals. Believe around the SYR
area amounts could be around 14 inches, and south of there along the
higher terrain, 15 inches is likely. Portions along the far northern
tips of northern Oneida Co, could see around 20.
Most of the area will also see scattered snow showers through the
night. The remaining areas will see lighter showers and be more
scattered in nature. Towards 12Z Monday, the "bulk" of the snow
showers will be confined to central NY, mainly north of the Twin
Tier region and will continue within this location through Monday
night. Decided to continue the Lake effect snow advisory for the
previous counties in the advisory as they also warrant a continued
threat for met conditions.
While snowfall amounts will create impacts during this event, strong
winds from this system may create additional impacts as well. Decided
to issue a wind advisory which goes into effect starting 18Z Sun and
lasts through 00Z tues. NW SFC winds during this time will be
sustained at 15 to 30 MPH with continuous gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.
These types of wind gusts may cause limbs to be blown down, or small
trees to be forced over, which could result power outages. The
combination of very cold temperatures, strong winds, and low wind
chill values could create very dangerous conditions if power outages
occur.
Winds will start to weaken Monday night, and the LE snow activity
will start to weaken across the region as well. By Tuesday light
snow shower/flurries can be expected. These 2 features will weaken
with time as riding at mid-lvls starts to build in from the west and
high pressure tries to build over the region as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A slight warming trend is projected to begin early Wednesday as a
low pressure center swinging out of the southern plains pulls
warmer air into the Ohio Valley and western NY/PA.
A holiday storm system, in the form of a diffuse low pressure
center tracking out of the Great Lakes, will move in for
Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Projected maximums for Thursday and
Friday each look to be in the 40s, but colder overnight
temperatures will generate snow showers for holiday travelers.
The storm will reform out to sea on Saturday, with somewhat drier
air sliding down from Canada into NY/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers will switch over to snow showers tonight, with IFR/below
alt min conditions possible. After the snow showers move through,
ceilings and visibilities are expected to rebound and improve.
Lake effect snow will enter the region late morning or early
afternoon Sunday. IFR/below alt min conditions will be more
widespread as snow increases.
Winds will gust at 20 to 25 knots this evening, with gusts of 30
to 40 knots likely Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...
Monday...IFR or worse conditions likely at KSYR, KRME, and perhaps
KITH, in steadier snow showers. KBGM and KELM may see occasional
IFR restrictions. KAVP should be mostly VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday...Other than possible lingering restrictions in
snow showers early Tuesday at KSYR and KRME, mainly VFR.
Thursday...Restrictions possible in light rain or snow.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday
for NYZ009-017-018-036-037-044-045.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ024-
055-056-062.
Lake Effect Snow Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday
for NYZ015-016-022-023-025-046-057.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJPHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 409 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 NYZ024-055-056-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-202115- CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BROOME-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE- WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 409 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. NYZ009-017-018-036-037-044-045-202115- NORTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA- CORTLAND-CHENANGO- 409 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. NYZ046-057-202115- OTSEGO-DELAWARE- 409 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. NYZ015-016-022-023-025-202115- YATES-SENECA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS- 409 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totals ranged from 8 to 16 inches in the northern half of the county and between 4 and 8 inches in the far south.
Snowfall totals ranged from 8 to 16 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 668268, 668269.