A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes helped to generate scattered severe thunderstorms in a warm and muggy airmass across the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley of central Pennsylvania.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes helped to generate scattered severe thunderstorms in a warm and muggy airmass across the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley of central Pennsylvania.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 10:07 AM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1107 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms on Monday. High pressure and dry weather with comfortable humidity will follow for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Broken convection crossing CWA this morning accompanied by heavy downpours. Severe threat across central sections has dwindled significantly, with main concern from the south central mountains to the Lower Susq, especially if MCV over the Laurel Highlands tracks overhead...as current temps are in the mid to upper 80s at mid morning. The amount of cloud debris and cooling from this early convection will then have a great impact on the instability this afternoon. Still wary that we won't realize the eye popping CAPEs forecast by CAMs. However shear values support vigilant watch...with 0-6km bulk shear values near 40kts. SPC Slight risk continues to cover all but NW mountains...mainly for damaging wind. Stable air moves down from the north in the evening. Maxes will be tricky given cloud cover. Will make adjustments as per morning trends. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Cold front pushes through by 03z, but convection will likely be on-going through then. NAM re-develops convection briefly overnight in the central counties, but no other model does this. Will leave this out for now. Skies clear up over most of the area tonight. Just a very small chance of a shower lingers - esp over the Laurels. With the widespread rain expected fog may develop over much of the area. Mins will drop into the m50s in the north, so fog is much more likely there. Heights will continue to fall on Tuesday, despite the axis of the upper trough moving to the east of our longitude. Tuesday will be about 5F cooler - but dewpoints should be 10-15F lower than today. The NW wind will be gusting to 15 or 20 MPH in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper level low over northern Canada should retrograde as the as the upper trough continues its propagation eastward. The mid range period begins with this trough exiting the mid Atlantic region. Behind this trough will be divergent flow, a low and mid level wind shift to the northwest and the advection of drier air into Pennsylvania. A large high pressure system will reside over the central and southern United States. This will dominate the weather pattern through the mid to long range. A ridge will move over Eastern Canada and should keep the area precipitation free through the second half of the week. The next precipitation chance will come next weekend as another trough with a possible frontal rain band should pass through the region. timing and strength remain variable. Temperatures should be fairly moderate and around normal though mid week and be 5 to 10 degrees above normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR cigs northwest and central...VFR prevailing through midday hours southeast routes. Strong to locally severe storms possible late morning and afternoon southern and southeastern areas. Maintaining VCTS 16-20Z time period. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Thu-Fri...Isolated thunderstorm impacts possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ross/Ceru AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner/Steinbugl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 409 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-190815- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 409 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016
PAZ004>006-010-011-181345-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-CAMERON PA-ELK PA-POTTER PA-
853 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
AT 852 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANE...BRADFORD...WARREN...SMETHPORT...CROSBY...SHINGLEHOUSE...
KINZUA DAM...LUDLOW...SIZERVILLE...ROULETTE...KEATING SUMMIT...
YOUNGSVILLE...CORYVILLE...REW...COUDERSPORT...CHAPMAN STATE PARK...
WESTLINE...WARREN SOUTH...WETMORE AND SHEFFIELD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.
&&
LAT...LON 4200 7787 4153 7785 4160 7896 4162 7896
4163 7942 4200 7940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 271DEG 39KT 4175 7867
CERUThe State College radar (KCCX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:08 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
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A severe thunderstorm produced golf-ball sized hail near Allenwood.
A thunderstorm produced nickel sized hail near Montgomery.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds estimated near 60 mph and knocked trees down in Clinton Twp.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds near 60 mph and knocked down trees near Almedia.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds near 60 mph and knocked down trees countywide across Columbia County.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds near 60 mph and knocked down trees on Route 501 in Brickerville.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds estimated around 60 mph, knocking down multiple trees and blowing the roof off of a chicken house.
A severe thunderstorm produced winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees and wires onto Route 30 east of Gap.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 636965, 636964, 636966, 638037, 636967, 636968, 636970, 638641, 638645.