Texas, 2016

Heat in Texas, July 18 to 19, 2016

July 18 to 19, 2016 · NWS FWD · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Temperatures were fairly typical of mid July across North Texas, but heat related deaths still occurred in a few locations across the region.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
2
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.

Temperatures were fairly typical of mid July across North Texas, but heat related deaths still occurred in a few locations across the region.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:38 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 2:38 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows a scattering of
cumulus clouds across North and Central Texas with scattered sea
breeze showers and thunderstorms across southeast Texas. Otherwise
temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with light southeast winds.
The sea breeze convection will continue to move inland and may
affect parts of our extreme southeast CWA but otherwise North and
Central Texas will remain rain free.

On Tuesday...the upper ridge will be firmly in control over the
central and southern Plains although there will be deep east-
southeast flow across North Texas. This will allow a plume of mid
level moisture to spread into the region from the east by
tomorrow afternoon. While not a major change to the weather
pattern by any means...there may be more isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity across our east and southeast counties. PoPs
will still only be around 10% for most areas.

Wednesday and Thursday...the ridge appears that it will be
strongest just to our north. Hot temperatures and mostly clear
skies will prevail. Afternoon highs will continue to warm through
the week with temperatures topping out near or slightly above 100
degrees through the end of the week. At this time...it still looks
like afternoon dewpoints will mix into the mid/upper 60s. That
being the case...heat index values will generally range between
102 and 105 degrees which should preclude the need for a heat
advisory at this time. The only exception to this may be our far
east and northeast counties where dewpoints could remain in the
lower 70s. We will continue to monitor this over the next few
days. Right now...the hottest temperatures and highest humidity
will be to our northeast.

There may be some relief on the way by next weekend into early
next week as it appears the upper ridge may get pushed back to the
west. This would open the door to northerly flow aloft and
slightly cooler temperatures. More importantly...a weak frontal
boundary may provide sufficient focus for more scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity next week.

Fire weather potential...Latest fuels assessment across Texas
indicates that areas that have not received any rainfall in the
last 14 days are now experiencing rapid drying. Fine fuels such
as grasses continue to dry out across North and Central Texas and
will support fire growth rather quickly where afternoon humidity
drops to around 30%. The only limiting factor to a more
significant grass fire threat will be the lack of winds through
the upcoming week. Nonetheless...caution should be exercised when
doing any outdoor burning or cooking.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...VFR w/ south flow for the Metroplex TAF sites.
Low convective and MVFR stratus potential for Waco TAF site.

VFR should prevail through the entire 18 UTC TAF cycle for the
Metroplex with southerly winds of around 8 to 10 knots. A few
gusts to 12-15 knots will be possible. Diurnal VFR CU will
scatter and decay this evening, but for simplicity sake, will
maintain one-line TAFs for the Metroplex.

Convection that developed early in the day across Central TX has
struggled to maintain itself due to the weak wind shear and
influence of the mid/upper level high. While southeast TX sea-
breeze activity may make a run towards Central TX, I feel the
influence of the upper high will be too great and thus will keep
the Waco TAF precipitation free. Radar trends will be monitored,
however. There will be a low chance for MVFR stratus Tuesday
morning across Central TX. Given the unimpressive model forecast
wind fields, however, I've decided to leave the Waco TAF VFR at
this time.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  97  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
Paris               76  96  76  97  76 /   0  10   5   5   0
Denton              75  95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  95  76  97  76 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              79  96  78  98  78 /   0   5   5   0   0
Terrell             77  95  76  97  76 /   0   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           77  96  77  97  77 /   5   5   5   5   0
Temple              75  98  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 2:39 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191300-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
339 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH
AND EAST OF A CAMERON TO PALESTINE LINE. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A CAMERON TO
CORSICANA...TO BONHAM LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 99 AND 105 DEGREES. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BAIN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 heat. Local standard time, as filed.

Heat, Dallas

When
July 18, 4:00 PM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where
Dallas forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
32.767, -96.778 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A two year old girl died after being left in a car during the afternoon of July 18.

Heat, Collin

When
July 19, 4:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Collin forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
33.188, -96.572 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A 25 year old man died of hear stroke while working at a construction site during the afternoon of July 19.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Heat, Dallas2016-07-182FemaleVehicle/Towed TrailerDirect
Heat, Collin2016-07-1925MaleHeavy Equipment/ConstructionDirect

What these are

Heat
Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 651255, 651256.