Damaging Winds in Oregon, October 14, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1045 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

.UPDATE...The latest satl was showing a plume of moisture over the
ne pac that extends northeast into our region. The latest radar was
showing a large area of pcpn over our area and surges of moisture
are poised to move across the region overnight. Therefore pops were
increased over some locations along with pcpn amounts. Multiple wind
warnings and advisories are in place tonight and into tomorrow and
this remains on track. Meanwhile sfc wind had increased along the
foothills of the blue mountains that includes the washington
foothills and a wind advisory was issued earlier for this area.
Otherwise the remainder of the short term forecast appears on track.

&&

.AVIATION...Surface wind gusts greater than 30 kts is likely for
many locations across the region which includes most of the taf
sites into Friday. Meanwhile areas of mvfr with local ifr conditions
can also be expected at all taf sites through 15z. Then a return to
mostly vfr conditions can be expected along with sustained winds
between 20 to 30 kts with gusts greater than 30 kts expected after
15z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...very active weather
pattern is in store through the period as two significant storm
systems move through the area. For tonight will issue a High Wind
Warning for the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades adding to the
advisories and warning that are already out. The evening shift will
need to monitor the winds to see if they punch through a shallow
stable layer in other areas. There will be significant rain tonight
especially in the mountains but rivers are low so don't expect
hydrologic issues. There will be a brief break in the weather Friday
and Friday night but it will be windy across much of the lower
elevations with gusty sw-w winds. Saturday becomes very interesting
with a very deep low moving up along the washington coast. The exact
track of the low will determine the extent of the wind impacts. A
more southern track as depicted by the ECMWF model would enhance the
potential for significant winds over the forecast area. As of now it
looks like at least central Oregon will be in the warm sector thus
at risk of damaging southerly winds. There will be copious rainfall
with this system as well but as of now the only river expected to
rise significantly (but below flood stage) is the Naches.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Forecast area will continue
to be under the influence of an upper level trough Sunday through
Tuesday. This will lead to a series of weather systems impacting the
region with precipitation and some occasional breezy conditions. The
trough will exit the region late Tuesday and be replaced by an upper
level ridge of high pressure and a return of pleasant Fall weather
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  65  49  63 /  70  20  20 100
ALW  54  65  52  65 /  90  30  20  90
PSC  54  67  52  64 /  80  10  10 100
YKM  47  66  44  58 /  90  30  10 100
HRI  51  67  49  64 /  60  10  10 100
ELN  42  61  42  54 / 100  30  20  90
RDM  44  61  42  59 /  80  30  30  60
LGD  45  61  43  57 /  90  50  30  60
GCD  48  58  46  55 /  80  50  40  70
DLS  51  66  51  61 /  90  40  30 100

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT Friday for ORZ507-508.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for ORZ044.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for ORZ510-511.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM PDT Friday for ORZ509.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PDT Friday for ORZ049.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ050.

WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT Friday for WAZ029.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for WAZ028.

&&

97/97/