Another in a series of fronts brought high winds to a few locations in south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Another in a series of fronts brought high winds to a few locations in south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 8:14 PM PST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
814 PM PST Sun Nov 27 2016
.UPDATE...A few changes were made to the evening and overnight
forecast, but only to trend the forecast towards a slightly tater
timetable. It does appear that the frontal system is coming
through a tad bit slower, on the order of an hour or two, from
previous thinking. Other than this, the forecast appears to be
right on track, with winter weather headlines ongoing in the
Cascades, and wind headlines on the East Side.
For more details, see the previous discussion below. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...29/00Z TAF cycle...The next system will arrive early
this evening and produce another round of precipitation with
decreasing ceilings and visibilities and widespread mountain
obscuration. Freezing levels will fall sharply overnight behind a
cold front. Also of note, due to very strong westerly mid and high
level winds, significant mountain turbulence is likely this evening
through Monday morning.
Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH remains out of service, so
there will be no ceiling observations available generally between
the hours of 04Z and 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Sunday 27 November 2016...A very high
and very long period northwest swell is expected on Monday night.
Strong south winds this evening will swing to the northwest and
remain gusty through Monday night. Very long period northwest swell
builds Monday, bringing very high surf Monday evening through
Tuesday morning. This will bring very hazardous bar crossing
conditions to all but southerly facing ports, with extremely
hazardous bar crossing conditions at Coos Bay. Winds become
southerly again ahead of the next front that move through the waters
Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Northwesterly swell slowly
diminishes through Tuesday night before increasing again Wednesday.
Sven
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PST Sun Nov 27 2016/
SHORT TERM...Tonight to Wednesday morning...Short wave ridging
today is giving way to a developing frontal system this evening.
The jet stream associated with the front is very energetic, in
excess of 150 knots. A warm front is moving on shore first. The
greatest isentropic lift from this warm front will affect the
Cascades from about Highway 140 north and across northern Klamath
County. The previously issued winter storm warning and snow
advisories match up very nicely with the target area. No changes
were made to the hazard areas. Snow levels will start out around
4000 feet before rising briefly to 5000 feet around midnight. The
cold front will pass through the area around sunrise Monday
morning and drop snow levels to 3500 feet. Surface pressure
gradients will tighten east of the Cascades as the cold front
approaches. The typical windy locations at mountain passes and
near Paisley and Summer Lake will see wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. Most other areas from the Cascades east will see very breezy
conditions. Post frontal showers will linger over most areas
through Monday night. The warning and advisory areas depicted the
hazard areas very well and no changes were made.
A small but strong ridge of high pressure builds over the area on
Tuesday. A ridge following rainfall means the valleys of southwest
Oregon and Siskiyou County will fill with fog in the morning. In
the case of the Shasta and Scott Valleys, it will be freezing fog.
This ridge is building up in response to a significant trough of
low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska. This system will
affect the area beginning Wednesday. JBL
LONG TERM...A much quieter weather pattern will affect the area for
most of the extended period. It will start off relatively active
as a cold front moves through Wednesday morning. Valley rain and
mountain snow is expected along and behind the front, with snow
levels dropping from 4500 feet to 3500 feet. Snow amounts at this
time look sub-advisory level, but ensemble spread with precipitation
amounts per the SREF and GEFS are substantial, so will continue to
monitor for amounts.
Colder and drier northerly flow will move in behind the front, and
on Friday morning many locations could see their coldest
temperatures so far this fall. Temperatures could dip into the mid
teens east of the Cascades and 20s west of the Cascades under mostly
clear skies and relatively light surface winds. By Saturday flow
will shift more northwesterly, and clouds will likely increase along
with overnight low temperatures.
GEFS members are in decent agreement that an upper ridge axis will
be overhead or just to the west on Saturday, and the operational GFS
suggests dry conditions under this ridge. The EC brings some
overrunning precipitation mainly to the Cascades and northwest to
the coast. We have favored the drier end of the guidance for now.
The general idea is that the upper ridge will flatten late Saturday
and allow for energy to sweep in from the northwest and bring a
renewed chance for precipitation.
CLIMATE...If you live in West Side valleys and you feel like
it's been a long time since you've experienced freezing
temperatures, you're right. Today marks 271 days since the last
time 32 degrees was observed at the Rogue Valley International
Airport. This is the longest stretch of days with above-freezing
temperatures since records began in 1911. Second place goes to
2013 with 241 days, and third place is 2014 with 232 days.
Additionally, if Medford does not reach freezing by Tuesday Nov
29, it will be the year with the latest first freeze since records
began in 2011. In 1937 (the current record-holder for latest first
freeze), the first freeze of the cold season occurred on Nov 29.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
ORZ021-022.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Monday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for
ORZ027-028-030.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM PST Monday for ORZ027-028.
CA...High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Monday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
PZZ350-356.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-376.
BPN/JBL/NSK/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Summer Lake RAWS recorded a gust to 58 mph at 27/2338 PST and a gust to 64 mph at 28/0038 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662084.