Wildfire in Oregon, July 30 to 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
207 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Little change to current
forecast.  Upper level low in BC and trof extending south
are enhancing westerly flow across the area today and Sunday. The
resulting downsloping flow will produce very dry
conditions into this evening.  As more
Pacific air mixes in overnight and Sunday, temperatures will fall a
bit more and humidity will be not quite so low for tomorrow and
Monday.  Models continue to show next Pacific upper level low to
move onshore in Washington Monday night.  As it crosses the
Cascades on midday Tuesday, NAM/EC models have the upper low about
100 miles further north along the Canadian border compared to the
GFS. Main impact will be to reinforce cooler air.  There may be a few
showers along the Washington Cascades with the possibility of
thunder during the afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday.  Dry conditions and near
seasonal temperatures will continue through the extended period with
west to northwest flow.  There is a low pressure system that will be
approaching northwest Washington by late Friday as the flow turns
southwest.  Some instability is indicated, but appears there will be
no moisture to work with. 93

&&

.AVIATION...00z Tafs.  VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear
skies.west winds 15 to 25 Kts with gusts to 30 Kts will continue
through the evening at KDLS...KPDT...KALW and KPSC decreasing after
midnight...except at KDLS, which will remain at 15 to 25 Kts. Other
sites will see west winds 10 to 20 kts.  93

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Winds continue to increase this afternoon...with
most areas in the warning at 10-15 mph or greater. With RHs falling
to under 10 percent in portions of the lower elevations and winds
continuing an increasing trend...will continue the Red Flag Warnings
for wind/RH for the Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the east slopes
of the Northern Oregon Cascades (fire zones WA/OR639 and
OR610)...and for the Columbia Basin zones down to Central Oregon
(WA675, WA/OR639, and OR640). Winds will decrease for Sunday...thus
even with minimum RHs between 10 and 20 percent for most lowland
locations...the potential for extreme fire behavior will diminish.
Winds will increase once again for Monday Night/Tuesday. With the
increase late Monday likely occurring after RHs will be
recovering...and with RHs somewhat higher Tuesday...will not issue
any watches at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  86  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  62  86  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  89  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  60  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  57  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  45  87  46  90 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  84  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  52  87  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  60  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ610-639>641.

WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ639-641-675.

&&

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