Thunderstorms formed near an upper level low with strong low level instability in the vicinity of a weak low level boundary. Two storms produced short-lived tornadoes in Renville and Bottineau Counties, with hail to the size of quarters also falling in Bottineau County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Thunderstorms formed near an upper level low with strong low level instability in the vicinity of a weak low level boundary. Two storms produced short-lived tornadoes in Renville and Bottineau Counties, with hail to the size of quarters also falling in Bottineau County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 11:38 AM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 The current forecast looks to be on track. We are seeing a few lightning strikes over Divide county in the northwest and Pierce county in the north central. As the upper low continues to spin over northern North Dakota, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous, especially in the north. Additionally, strong surface instability, weak wind shear, and enhanced surface vorticity will lead to a chance for weak funnel clouds or landspouts under any of the stronger storms in the northwest or north central. We are not expecting this threat to be widespread or significant, but it is something we are monitoring closely. Otherwise, just increased high temperatures over the west where there have been some breaks in the clouds. UPDATE Issued at 858 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Not many changes were needed for this update. Did increase precipitation chances over south central North Dakota and the James River valley for the next couple of hours based on the latest radar trends. Other than that, just blended the latest observations to the current forecast. UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Upper low over northeast Montana with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms extending east along the international border through northwest and north central ND. To the south more jet induced showers across southwest into south central ND. In general kept the same trend as previous forecast but trimmed pops back a bit across the southwest and south central. Although skies may clear out in the west central through south central this morning but with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly breaking out early this afternoon, so hesitant to completely nix pops over the southwest and south central. Though it does look like these areas will see the lowest probability of any accumulating precip today. As for severe weather...still can not rule something out around the James River valley but latest iterations of the experimental HRRR seem to favor more organized convection just east of here this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 The main forecast issue in the short term period will be shower and thunderstorm chances today and the potential for severe storms. Currently, an upper level low is situated near Glasgow Montana. Downstream, lingering convection is exiting the far eastern CWA with mainly dry conditions over a good portion of central ND. Showers are moving into the west due to forcing associated with the upper low and shortwave energy rotating around the base of the low. Expect an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms over the west this morning...then translating into central ND this afternoon. Point forecast soundings from across the CWA indicate at least marginal instability across the CWA today. The potential for strong to severe storms will reside mainly over the James River Valley and points south and east of here this afternoon and evening. Although point forecast soundings from Jamestown indicate a messy shear profile, the NAM and GFS indicate around 1500 j/kg of mucape this afternoon with abundant bulk shear. If we were able to achieve a little more daytime heating than forecast, the afternoon instability would only increase. SPC SREF Calibrated probability of severe weather has shown an increase over the past three model runs over the James River Valley Thursday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly dissipated Thursday night as the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area. A shortwave ridge will build over the area Friday in advance of another even stronger upper low that will influence our weather over the weekend. We remain dry on Friday with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s east to mid 80s far southwest. By late Friday night thunderstorm chances will return on the nose of a strong low level jet develops over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Main highlight continues to be chances and severity of thunderstorms throughout the long term, with a potent closed mid/upper low tracking from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. A well established upper level low is progged to be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning with upstream southwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies and into the western Dakotas. The low is forecast to dig southeast into Oregon by Sunday morning and move across the Rockies to western/central Montana by Monday morning, then lift northeastward into southeastern Saskatchewan by Tuesday morning...reaching southern/central Manitoba by Wednesday morning. The GFS continues to be a tad slower in the movement of the low by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Saturday morning the models are in agreement placing an upper level shortwave moving northeast out of Montana across northern North Dakota, along with as a decent southerly low level jet that will have become established along the border of MT/WY/western Dakotas. This will provide enough instability and shear for morning convection, but parameters are not strong enough for concern regarding storms reaching severe limits. During the day an upper level shortwave ridge builds into the Northern Plains as the Pacific Northwest upper low digs southeastward. This will result in mid-level warming building over the Front Range into the Dakotas. This mid-level capping environment should inhibit convection Saturday afternoon, despite the growing CAPE and bulk shear moving into the region with increasing dewpoint temperatures reaching well into the 60s F. Very warm southwest with highs around 90 with 80s north and east. By Saturday evening, the first in a series of upper level impulses ahead of the main upper low reaches the western Dakotas. Impulses continue Sunday and Monday as the main low approaches the Dakotas. CAPE and bulk shear parameters continue to increase with a strengthening low level jet, plenty of low level moisture, strong upper level impulses. The potential for severe storms should begin Saturday night and continue through at least Sunday night. Severe potential may linger into Monday, depending on the placement of the upper low and where/whether a dry slot will be making its way into our area. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over mainly northern North Dakota Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level low in south central Canada keeps cyclonic flow aloft over North Dakota. Regarding temperatures...highs of 80 to 90 Saturday and Sunday as the upper low approaches, then 70s to lower 80s early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over western and central North Dakota through the afternoon and early evening hours. The most numerous showers and thunderstorms will form over the northern third of the state, closest to KMOT and KISN. However, thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of all sites until the night time hours. Low clouds are also taking their time moving out of KJMS, so scattered IFR ceilings can be expected there for the next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with clouds scattering out through the night. Breezy northwest winds will increase this evening before calming overnight. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...ZH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-081730- FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NDZ005-013-017>023-031>036-040>046-081730- ROLETTE-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-SLOPE- HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS- 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 /1123 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. NDZ001>004-009>012-081730- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY- 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT THE OF WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM. THESE TYPES OF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT LOVED...HOWEVER... THEY CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO TOUCH THE GROUND AND CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ZH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016
NDZ003-004-071945-
RENVILLE ND-BOTTINEAU ND-
210 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...
AT 210 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHERWOOD...OR 16 MILES EAST OF BOWBELLS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOHALL...SHERWOOD AND LORAINE.
LAT...LON 4874 10128 4875 10195 4890 10203 4891 10202
4900 10170 4900 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 254DEG 20KT 4885 10188
CJSThe Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:30 UTC.
3 hail, 2 tornado, 2 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A tornado touched down in a rural area west of Loraine and traveled about one-third mile. No damage, injuries, or fatalities were reported. Because the tornado impacted no structures it was rated EF-0.
A tornado touched down in a rural area west of Newburg and traveled about one-quarter mile. No damage, injuries, or fatalities were reported. Because the tornado impacted no structures it was rated EF-0.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Dakota, 2016Warnings in North Dakota, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 648521, 650828, 650833, 650829, 650830, 650831, 650832.