Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 7, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent upper level disturbance will cross the area this afternoon
and evening. Sunny skies and rising temperatures are expected on
Friday and Saturday as an upper level ridge centered over the Deep
South extends northeastward into the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...

Potent MCV associated with the long-lived MCS that emanated from the
Central Plains yesterday and later dissipated over the Southern Appalachians
this morning, will track east-southeast across the Carolinas
this afternoon and evening.  Scattered convective development is expected
across the area this afternoon and evening.

Previous thinking from this morning is pretty much unchanged, with
convection expected to increase in coverage and perhaps
strengthen in intensity as the storms progress eastward, encountering
the moderate to strong buoyancy in place east of US 1 corridor.
Enhanced 40-45kt 700 mb flow in close proximity to the wave could
certainly support a potential for damaging winds, particularly east
of Hwy 1 where DCAPE approaches 1000 J/Kg.

In the wake of the wave exiting east of the area, convection should
diminish west to east during the late evening.

Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 pm Thursday...

Central NC will remain along the southern fringes of the mid-level
westerlies as a compact upper trough progresses eastward across the
Great Lakes. An upper level trigger is not as readily discernible as
past days, however isolated to scattered storms will be possible
across the area Friday afternoon given the continued potential for
upstream disturbances/convection to influence the area, but more
importantly given the advection of an elevated mixed layer plume
into the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. If convection is
present(most likely needs to propagate into the area since the EML
will also cap weaker lift), moderate to strong destabilization of
2500-3500 J/Kg of MLCAPE and effective shear of 20 to 25 kts will
support a risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

Expect sunny skies with highs in the mid/upper 90s. Diurnal
heating/mixing in the presence of an EML could allow sfc dewpoints
to mix out to some degree during the afternoon, particularly from
the Triangle north and west. As such, heat indices could approach
advisory criteria(105 F)across the southern portions of the forecast
area. Confidence is not high enough yet to include at this time, but
will continue to mention in the HWO and a heat advisory may be
issued in subsequent forecast issuance.

Lows Friday night in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

Saturday and Saturday Night: Ahead of an approaching front,
instability will climb through the roof, especially in the east as
we heat up under an impressive elevated mixed layer featuring lapse
rates >7C/km. Weak shear and a strong cap below the EML are progged
as enough to suppress potential high-based convection even as SB
CAPEs potentially exceed 3K Joules. Meanwhile, drying will be
underway in the northwest with the front sagging south of the area
and PW's falling below 1.5 inches during the afternoon/evening. As
such, will maintain ongoing PoP-less forecast except for addition of
a slight chance in the southeast where weak low level convergence
with the frontal zone could be enough to force a connection between
surface-based and mid level instability. Highs still looking like
mid 90s north and upper 90s south. Mins Saturday night will be a bit
cooler than the previous morning under clear skies with a modestly
drier airmass in place - still seasonable, though, in the upper 60s
northwest to lower 70s across the east.

Sunday through Thursday: High temperatures will be seasonal (85 to
90) through the period, with minor day to day fluctuations driven by
the whims of cloud coverage and precip distribution. The frontal
zone will slow and stall in the vicinity of the NC/SC border Sunday,
providing a focus for convection, mainly diurnally driven, across
the south. A short wave ridge migrates east over the Atlantic coast
by Wednesday, but should provide only modest suppression with a very
moist airmass trapped below and the lingering diffuse frontal zone
remaining as a tangible feature likely to focus convection each day.
As such, will maintain chance diurnal PoPs slightly weighted towards
the south given the uncertainty in timing and extent of mesoscale
features that might tilt the PoP distribution one way or another.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 147 PM Thursday...

24-hr TAF Period: Brief periods of sub-vfr conditions are likely to
affect all terminals this afternoon/evening as scattered to numerous
thunderstorms develop in response to a potent upper level
disturbance moving through the region this evening. Thunderstorm
wind gusts of 40-50kts could accompany the stronger storms.  In the
wake of the disturbance convection will diminish from west to east
between 00 to 06z. As has been the case the past two mornings,
isolated pockets of fog will be possible Friday morning in areas that
receive heavy rainfall.

Looking Ahead: Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will
be possible through early next week, but with generally VFR
conditions otherwise expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-082030-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
418 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANDHILLS AND EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040-073-074-082030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
418 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANDHILLS AND EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

NCZ040-041-072045-
WAKE   NC-CHATHAM   NC-
346 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WAKE
AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...CARY...PITTSBORO...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...APEX...
HOLLY SPRINGS...MORRISVILLE...AND JORDAN LAKE STATE REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF ON OR NEAR JORDAN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 10 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 7862 3556 7866 3561 7907 3563 7912
      3562 7915 3563 7923 3581 7924 3586 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 266DEG 26KT 3572 7914

WSS